Key Takeaways:

  1. Yemen’s al Houthis escalated the conflict with Saudi Arabia by firing a Scud missile at a Saudi Arabian airbase and conducting an attack alongside Yemeni military units against Saudi border forces, which may further impede efforts to reach a negotiated political solution. Both the al Houthis and Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government have agreed to participate in UN-led talks in Geneva on June 14, though Hadi’s government signaled it sees the talks as a means to begin implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2216. The resolution calls for the al Houthis to disarm and to withdraw from seized territory.
  2. Iranian IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami’s comments on the Yemeni people indicate a rhetorical escalation on the importance of the Yemeni conflict. Salami characterized Yemenis as “more oppressed” than Palestinians, and his comments may mark a shift in the IRGC’s depiction of Yemenis.
  3. Al Shabaab may be able to exploit friction points between the Somali federal government and local administrations as the country’s federalization process moves forward. The Sufi group Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASWJ), which had allied with the Somali federal government to fight al Shabaab, recently seized control of the Galgudud region capital from Somali federal government forces. ASWJ officials cite their marginalization within the Somali federalization process as a core grievance against the federal government.