Pakistan Security Brief - February 8, 2011

U.S. suspends high-level dialogue with Pakistan; U.S. Ambassador meets with President Zardari; Civilian aid to Pakistan has failed to result in measurable progress; TTP to implement peace deal in Kurram; Ahmadzai Wazirs threaten to move to Afghanistan; Airstrikes in Orakzai Agency; Blasts in Mohmand; Rising extremism in Pakistani security forces; Express Tribune report on new generation of Taliban; New sales tax on fuel and goods to Afghanistan; Report on damaged schools in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa; Roadside bombs in Peshawar; Shops blown up in Mardan; Militants arrested in Lakki Marwat; Pipelines attacked in Dera Murad Jamali.

U.S.-Pakistani Relations

• The Washington Post has reported that the U.S has suspended all high-level dialogue with Pakistan over the case of Raymond Davis, the U.S. diplomat charged with shooting and killing two Pakistani men. Anonymous sources have alleged that Secretary Clinton canceled a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi last weekend at a conference in Munich to protest Davis’ imprisonment. In addition, sources have reported that the diplomatic clash could affect three events planned this year: President Zardari’s visit to Washington DC, the upcoming round of U.S.-Pakistan strategic dialogue, and trilateral talks with Afghanistan. The State Department released a statement, declaring that the Obama administration and Congress "have repeatedly made clear at the highest levels that this matter must be resolved by the Pakistan government or it could impact other bilateral initiatives." Alternatively, GEO News has disputed reports on the suspension of high level dialogue, alleging that the U.S. is still engaged in conversation with Pakistan to resolve both the Davis issue and other agenda items. The Post also sourced a Pakistani intelligence official who said that the two men Davis killed were intelligence agents assigned to tail him, not armed robbers as previously thought. The Express Tribune has also contradicted this claim, quoting Pakistani intelligence officials who have denied the men were intelligence operatives[i]

• In a meeting in Islamabad on Monday between Pakistani President Zardari and U.S. Ambassador Cameron Munter, Ambassador Munter repeated American demands for the release of Davis. The ambassador stated that, “Pakistan must comply with its obligations under international law and immediately release the American diplomat illegally detained in Lahore.”[ii]

• A report issued by the USAID Inspector General has found that U.S. civilian aid to Pakistan has failed to result in quantifiable success. The report said that, "One year after the launch of the civilian assistance strategy in Pakistan, USAID has not been able to demonstrate measurable progress." In addition, major problems of accountability and oversight are detailed in the report, leading to questions about how effective future aid will be to Pakistan.[iii]

FATA

• On Monday, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Kurram Agency stated that they would support the political administration and security officers in implementing the new peace deal agreed upon by Sunni and Shia tribesmen. The TTP chief for Kurram agency, Fazal Saeed, said, “We will first ask the political administration and jirga members to take action against the side violating the agreement. But we will be justified to punish the violators after 15 days as per the accord.” He additional stated that the Shia tribesmen would be able to travel freely on the newly re-opened Thall-Parachinar Road without fear of attack.[iv]

• Member of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe in South Waziristan have threatened to move to Afghanistan due to the recent government-imposed ban on the display of arms in Wana, the headquarters of South Waziristan. The Wazirs feel the ban will weaken them against Uzbek militants and the TTP. The tribesmen also demanded the removal and replacement of the political agent and assistant political agent, accusing them of corruption. The tribal jirga issued a deadline of February 10 as the date for the government to withdraw its ban on carrying weapons and to replace the two officers.[v]

• Troops backed by airstrikes killed twelve militants in Orakzai Agency on Tuesday. Four militant hideouts were also damaged in the operation.[vi]

• One soldier was injured in a blast in Mohmand Agency on Monday. The security officer was completing a routine patrol in the Lakaro area when the improvised explosive device (IED) went off. Later on Tuesday, two soldiers and a policeman were killed in Mohmand, also from a detonated IED.[vii]

Reports on Extremism

• The LA Times has reported on the rising extremism in Pakistan’s security forces, due to a lack of financial resources and manpower to carry out proper evaluations of applicants. The report details lax screening procedures and the lack of a national computerized criminal database to conduct background checks. An anonymous official said, “The current level of screening is not geared toward finding out the radicalized tendencies of a person." The article concludes by questioning the ease of which radicals may penetrate the security forces in Pakistan, where extremist thinking has gradually increased in mainstream society.[ix]

• The Express Tribune has issued a report detailing the new generation of Taliban militants who have joined the insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan. An anonymous intelligence official told the paper that, “The sons of the Taliban fighters who were 10 or 12 years of age at the time of the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 are now 20 or 22 years old. They are a product of war and ultimately they have to follow their elders.” The report highlights how hundreds of “child soldiers” have been recruited by the Taliban in their fight against NATO and U.S.-led forces, drawn to the cause in order to “avenge the killing of their fathers or siblings.”[x]

Afghan-Pakistani Relations

• The provincial government of Sindh is instituting a new sales tax on the transport of fuel and goods to Afghanistan, under the 2010 Afghan Transit and Trade agreement. The Sindh provincial minister for excise and taxation said, "The tax is levied on all items that are transported. At the present rate we stand to earn at least five billion rupees ($58.82m/£37.03m) annually from this regime.” However, Dawn reports that supplies for NATO troops will be exempt from the levy.[xi]

Blasts in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• Data collected by the Education Department reveals that over the last two years, a total of 710 schools have been destroyed or damaged by militants in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Malakand was the worst hit area of the region, as seventy institutions were destroyed during that time period.[xii]

• A blast at a Peshawar security checkpoint has resulted in the death of one policeman and three other casualties. Two bombs were detonated at the checkpoint, killing the security officer in the second blast.  A roadside bomb targeting a security convoy also was detonated Tuesday near Bannu, killing two soldiers and injuring four others.[xiii]

• Ten shops were blown up in Mardan on Monday after an improvised explosive device was detonated in a Cahto Chowk market. No one was injured in the explosion.[xiv]

• Seven militants were arrested in Mastikhel village on Monday. Security forces launched a search operation outside Lakki Marwat, and arrested seven unidentified militants. Guns and three stolen vehicles were also recovered in the operation.[xv]

Violence in Baluchistan

• Militants attacked two major gas pipelines in Dera Murad Jamali on Tuesday, suspending gas supply to the province. The explosion followed a late Monday night attack on four transmission pylons in the Bolan area. A spokesman for the Baluch Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the destruction of the pylons and threatened to stage additional attacks.[xvi]