Pakistan Security Brief - May 23, 2011

Mullah Omar rumored dead; Karachi naval base attacked; WikiLeaks: U.S. forces embedded with Pakistani troops; Madrassas strengthened through charitable organizations from Saudi Arabia and UAE; Diplomatic cable: Haqqani network protected by army; Police outnumbered in Karachi; Former PM Nawaz Sharif feared arrest upon returning to Saudi Arabia; Bhutto had requested security from U.S.; Zardari: Singh does not understand constraints; Indian disapproval of plan to appoint special envoy for the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan region; Pasha asks Morrell to cease drone strikes in Pakistani territory; Thirty U.S. Special Operations forces trainers told to leave Pakistan following Davis incident; Trilateral meeting scheduled for next week; Pakistan and Afghanistan working to establish high-level joint commission; Trial of Tahawwur Rana set to begin this week; Al Qaeda had considered blowing up oil tankers;  Ayman al Zawahiri releases audio tape; Obama would repeat Abbottabad operation if another militant leader found in Pakistan; Wall Street Journal: Increased cooperation between U.S. intelligence agencies and military; Drone strike in NWA; Attack on NATO fuel tanker; Twelve militants killed in Orakzai; Clashes in Kurram; Associated Press details militant training camp in Ughi; PTI stages two-day sit-in; Chinese officials agree to take over operations of Gwadar Port; Separatist leaders in Indian Kashmir placed under house arrest.

Rumors of Mullah Omar’s Death

• Afghan media outlets have reported on the rumored death of Mullah Mohammed Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban who has allegedly been living in Quetta, Pakistan for the past ten years. A spokesman for Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security (NDS), Lutfullah Mashal, said that Omar had disappeared in the past five days and that senior Taliban members have confirmed that they have been unable to contact him. A spokesperson for the Afghan Taliban has denied that Omar is dead and Pakistan's Interior minister Rehman Malik has also dismissed the report. NDS spokesman Meshal stated that General Hamid Gul, the former head of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, was moving him from Quetta to North Waziristan when he was killed.[i]

Karachi Naval Base Attacked

• In one of the most serious attacks against the military since an assault on its Rawalpindi headquarters in October 2009, a naval base in Karachi was stormed on Sunday by Taliban militants, resulting in the deaths of at least twelve security officers and fourteen other casualties. Up to twenty Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) assailants entered Naval Station Mehran and set off explosives within the facility, ultimately destroying two U.S.-supplied P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft. Security officials sent in several dozen officers to battle the assailants, resulting in fighting that lasted over eighteen hours before Pakistani troops retook the naval base. Interior Minister Rehman Malik said that the militants who participated in the attack were killed by security forces. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani issued a statement condemning the attack, stating that such a "cowardly act of terror could not deter the commitment of the government and people of Pakistan to fight terrorism.” Six American contractors were on the base at the time of the attack, but were not harmed. A spokesperson for the TTP said that the attack was in response to the “martyrdom” of Osama bin Laden and that the assailants were prepared with enough food and ammunition to last them three days. Earlier reports suggested that the militants had taken hostages but navy sources have denied that hostages were taken during the attack.[ii]

WikiLeaks

• A diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks said that the Pakistani “military had twice, in late 2009, approved the deployment of U.S. Special Operations teams to North Waziristan and South Waziristan to provide intelligence and surveillance assistance during Pakistani military operations.” The cable, signed by then-U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson, stated that the cooperation would likely end if it became public. A separate cable written by Patterson revealed that U.S. special operations forces “were embedded with Pakistani troops for intelligence gathering by the summer of 2009 and deployed with them on joint operations in Pakistani territory by September that year.” Though the Pakistani military has issued a statement of denial, the cable reports that intelligence "fusion cells" were embedded with Pakistani military units during operations.[iii]
• A diplomatic cable sent in November 2008 by Bryan Hunt, the Principal Officer at the U.S. Consulate in Lahore, stated that “nearly 100 million USD annually was making its way to Deobandi and Ahl-e-Hadith clerics in south Punjab from [organizations] in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates ostensibly with the direct support of those governments.” Hunt referred to a network of mosques and madrassas which has been strengthened through “charitable organizations” who would introduce families with financial difficulties to local Deobandi or Ahl-e-Hadith clerics who would offer to educate their children at a madrassa. The cable states that “children recruited would be given age-specific indoctrination and would eventually be trained according to the [madrassa] teachers’ assessment of their inclination “to engage in violence and acceptance of jihadi culture.”[iv]
• Diplomatic cables reveal a claim made by Awami National Party leader Senator Afrasiab Khattak, who alleged that the Haqqani network was being protected by the Pakistan military. Lynne Tracy, the Principal Officer at the U.S. Consulate in Peshawar, reported that “Khattak described the Pakistani military as treating the Haqqanis ‘separately’ …from other militants.” Senator Khattak also condemned “a purported ISI plan to release Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) leader Sufi Mohammad.”[v]
• An assessment by U.S. consulate general Stephen Fakan in April 2009 argues that police have often been outnumbered in Karachi by militant groups and political militias. The report also declares that “Very few of the groups are traditional criminal gangs. Most are associated with a political party, a social movement, or terrorist activity, and their presence in the volatile ethnic mix of the world’s fourth largest city creates enormous political and governance challenges.”[vi]
• A diplomatic cable sent from the U.S. consulate in Jeddah on Sept 12, 2007 states that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif thought he might be arrested upon returning to Saudi Arabia after being deported from Pakistan in 2007. According to the cable, Prince Muqrin had negotiated a deal with former Lebanese president Rafik Hariri to shelter Sharif for ten years in Pakistan, provided Sharif stay out of Pakistani politics. It states, “Prince Muqrin, Head of General Intelligence Presidency, Saudi Arabia, gave Sharif ‘two options – he could either stay at a palace that had been prepared for him, or at his home. He opted to go to his home.’” Meanwhile, following the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December 2007, Sharif requested the U.S. to provide technical expertise to ensure his own safety. According to newly released cables, Bhutto had asked the U.S. to provide her with security two months before her assassination, a request the U.S. refused. [vii]
• A cable authored by then U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson, details a meeting between Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in June 2009. Following the meeting, Zardari stated that Singh was "an excellent economist but he's not convinced the Indian PM understood [Zardari’s] constraints." Patterson wrote that "Zardari reiterated that Singh was unaware of what it took to 'change the mind-set of Pakistan's establishment,' given Pakistan's short history of fragile democratic regimes toppled by the military." The cable also reports that U.S. National Security Advisor General James Jones told Zardari to make certain that there would be no repeat of a Mumbai-style attack. A separate cable written by Patterson on Feb 16, 2008 reports on private discussions from 2008 about who would be Pakistan's new prime minister.[viii]
• During a meeting with U.S. Ambassador David Mulford, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee reported India's strong disapproval of President Obama's plan to appoint a special envoy for the India-Pakistan-Afghanistan region, two weeks before Richard Holbrooke's appointment. The cable argued that “Such a broad mandate would be viewed by India as risky and unpredictable, exposing issues of vital concern to India to the discretion of the individual appointed.”[ix]

U.S.-Pakistani Relations

• In a meeting between Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency chief Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha and CIA deputy director Michael Morrell, Pasha reportedly asked Morrell to cease drone strikes in Pakistani territory. Pasha reportedly said, “We will be forced to respond if you do not come up with a strategy that stops the drone strikes.” Pakistani officials also allegedly asked the U.S. to provide a list of names of people employed by the CIA or other U.S. intelligence agencies who are operating within Pakistan. The two also reportedly conferred about an agreement on counterterrorism operations, though a framework has not been formalized.[x]
• In the wake of the incident involving Raymond Davis, the CIA-affiliated security contractor who shot and killed two Pakistanis in Lahore, between twenty-five and thirty U.S. Special Operations forces trainers were told to leave Pakistan. The trainers had been assigned to Frontier Corps troops that operated in the tribal region. [xi]
• The “trilateral meeting” of senior Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States officials is set to be held next week in Kabul to discuss the security situation in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan and Afghanistan are working to establish a high-level joint commission that aims to manage direct negotiations with the Afghan Taliban. An unidentified official said that the “U.S. will be part of the discussions on how to engage the Afghan Taliban for a political solution to the Afghan war.” [xii]
• The trial of Tahawwur Rana, the Chicago resident charged with providing material support in connection to the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, begins this week. Rana’s case is expected to publicly reveal details about ISI support for militant groups, though Pakistani officials have denied that the ISI was involved in the Mumbai terrorist attacks. David Headley, a Pakistani-American businessman who has admitted to his role in the attacks, will serve as a witness in the trial.[xiii]

Bin Laden Raid and Response

• Documents obtained from bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad reveal that al Qaeda had considered blowing up oil tankers and commercial oil infrastructure in order to “provoke an ‘extreme economic crisis’ in the west.” Though there has been “no specific or imminent threat,” the terrorist organization reportedly mulled over taking bombs on board oil vessels and initiating test runs. Meanwhile, a jihadist website has posted an audio message from key al Qaeda figure Ayman al Zawahiri, recorded prior to bin Laden’s death. The speaker on the tape makes remarks on the “Arab Spring” and calls the United States the leader of "crusader enemies." The authenticity of the tape has not yet been confirmed.[xiv]
• In an interview with the BBC, President Obama said that he would order “an operation similar to that which killed al Qaeda kingpin Osama bin Laden if another militant leader was found in Pakistan.” He said that though the U.S. recognized Pakistan’s sovereignty, the U.S. would not allow “active plans to come to fruition without us taking some action.”[xv]
• The Wall Street Journal discusses how increased cooperation between U.S. intelligence agencies and the U.S. military contributed to the success of the raid that killed bin Laden. The “use of secret, unilateral missions powered by a militarized spy operation”…reflects newfound trust between two traditionally wary groups.”[xvi]

FATA

• A U.S. drone strike on Monday hit a vehicle and killed seven people in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan. Two drones fired four missiles at the van, killing those inside. A security official said “I do not know whether there was a high-value target. We received reports that those killed in the van were all foreigners.”[xvii]
• An attack on a NATO fuel tanker killed fifteen people in the Landi Kotal area of Khyber Agency. Following a bomb attack on the vehicle, members of the Khawaga Khel tribe rushed to collect leaking oil from the tanker and were killed when it exploded. Two schools were also damaged by the blast. Meanwhile, at least twenty tankers were destroyed at a terminal in Torkham. The Abdullah Azzam Brigade, a militant group linked to the TTP, claimed responsibility for both attacks.[xviii]
• On Saturday, twelve militants were killed in security operations in Orakzai Agency. Military helicopters shelled suspected insurgent hideouts in Khadezai, Karonchi, and Safail Darra. However, a spokesperson for the TTP denied that militants were killed in the shelling. Meanwhile, two security officials were killed by a roadside bomb when their vehicle hit the explosive device while traveling in Orakzai.[xix]
• On Saturday, one person was killed and six others sustained casualties when unidentified militants attacked the Balish Khel village in Kurram Agency. Two others were injured when militants fired rockets at the Shalozan, Baghdi and Luqman Khel villages in Upper Kurram Agency. On Sunday, at least eight people were killed and seventeen others were injured in clashes between Turi and Bangash tribes in Balish Khel village.[xx]

Militant Training Camp

• A report issued by the Associated Press details a militant training camp in the Ughi area of Mansehra district, just thirty-five miles from where bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad. Militant sources have said that the training complex is one of at least three in the area that house hundreds of recruits. According to the sources, the camps aim to “[take] recruits to Kashmir to fight Pakistan's archenemy, India. But Kashmiri veterans have been known to join forces with [al Qaeda] and other terror groups, including those fighting the U.S. and its allies in Afghanistan and elsewhere.” Local villagers have said that the Pakistani military is aware of the camp, though the army denies it exists.[xxi]

Protests against Drone Strikes

• In protest against U.S. drone strikes in the tribal region of Pakistan, thousands of supporters of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) staged a two-day sit-in in front of the Karachi Port. Around 7,000 people gathered in front of the port on Saturday and chanted slogans against the continued strikes and “U.S. interference into internal affairs of Pakistan.”[xxii]

Chinese to Take Over Operations of Port

• After his visit to China, Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar said that Chinese officials have agreed to take over operations of the Gwadar Port once the contract with the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) expires. Former president Pervez Musharraf had given operational control of Gwadar Port to PSA in 2007 for a period of 40 years; however, the Chief Minister of Balochistan, Nawab Mohammad Aslam Raisani, sought cancellation of the agreement. Meanwhile, Islamabad has requested that the Chinese build a base at the port for the Pakistani navy.[xxiii]

Kashmir

• Separatist leaders in Indian Kashmir were placed under house arrest by Indian authorities to impede a demonstration marking the anniversaries of the killings of Moulvi Mohammad Farooq and Abdul Gani Lone, two of the independence movement’s key figures. Unidentified militants in Srinagar had killed Farooq on May 21, 1990, while Lone was killed on May 21, 2002. Muslim rebels and Indian security officers have blamed one another for the murders.[xxiv]