Pakistan Security Brief - May 31, 2011

Reports on potential military operation in North Waziristan; ISI suspected of kidnapping Pakistani journalist; WikiLeaks: F-16 aircraft sold to Pakistan to further U.S. broad strategic interests; Cable reveals that the ISI had demanded Saudi Arabia cease funding Sharif campaign; Diplomatic cable: ISI officials continue to maintain ties with extremist organizations; Cable reveals Pakistani apprehensions about an Indian military incursion; WikiLeaks: France had decided against supplying nuclear energy technology; Blast in North Waziristan on Monday killed one person; NATO helicopter crosses into Pakistani airspace; Five people were killed and twelve others injured in Bajaur; Seventeen militants killed in Orakzai; U.S. and Pakistani officials agree on framework to jointly tackle militancy; Fourteen U.S. military trainers have left Pakistan; Clinton demands intelligence sharing from the Pakistani government; McCain: New tensions in relationship contributing to decline in support for the Afghan war; Foreign Office confirms bin Laden possessed a "support network" in Pakistan; CIA team inspects bin Laden’s former compound; bin Laden had aimed to build a "grand coalition;" Six people detained in connection to the PNS Mehran attacks; Unidentified militants assault Zardari’s Chief Security Officer; Tahawwur Rana trial continues; Indian and Pakistani defense secretaries meet in New Delhi; Five suspected terrorists arrested in Dera Ghazi Khan; Police officer killed in Peshawar; ANP leader Muzaffar Ali Khan killed in Swat; Two policemen killed in Quetta.

North Waziristan Operation

• The News reports that Pakistan has agreed “in principle” to initiate a security operation in North Waziristan Agency. Sources report that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) will kick-off the military offensive in the agency with strikes to “soften up militant targets under the ‘targeted military offensive’ before ground operations [are] launched,” against militants of the Pakistani Taliban, led by Hakimullah Mehsud. However, Pakistani officials allegedly face pressure from the U.S. to also target members of the Haqqani network in the agency. The News also states that the decision to undertake the operation had been readied some time ago, but was finalized during the recent visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen to Pakistan. In an interview on Monday, Admiral Mullen told a television network that “It’s a very important fight and a very important operation.” A senior official with an international humanitarian agency reported that humanitarian agencies in the region have been notified to prepare for the displacement of up to 365,000 people in advance of the operation. However, a Pakistani military official has told The Express Tribune that a decision on the operation has not been made. Army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani will reportedly meet this week with senior officials to discuss U.S. "demands" for a security operation.[i]

Suspected Abduction by ISI

• A representative for Human Rights Watch (HRW) has reported that Saleem Shahzad, the Pakistan bureau chief for the Asia Times Online, was abducted by the ISI, days after authoring an article about suspected links between navy officials and al Qaeda. On Tuesday, Shahzad’s body  was found in the Sarai Alamgir area, about 120 miles from Islamabad. Shahzad had gone missing on Sunday evening after leaving his house in Islamabad for Pakistan's Dunya News channel studios.[ii]

WikiLeaks

• U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks have given insight into the 2005 sale by the United States of F-16 military aircraft to Pakistan. The cable suggests that the sale was “used only to further America's broad strategic interests, with Pakistan standing to gain little from the deal…The purpose of the sale was to divert Pakistan's attention from ‘the nuclear option,’ and give it ‘time and space to employ a conventional reaction’ in the event of a conflict with India.” However, the cables assert that the F-16s would be “no match for India's proposed purchase of F-18 or equivalent aircraft.”[iii]
• A new U.S. diplomatic cable reveals that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had demanded that Saudi Arabia cease funding Nawaz Sharif’s campaign in the last elections, as the aid violated Pakistan’s agreement with Saudi Arabia on Nawaz’s return from exile. Former National Security Advisor Tariq Aziz told former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson that the Saudis were funding Sharif’s campaign to ensure the defeat of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP).[iv]
• WikiLeaks has released a diplomatic cable sent by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton which states that “’some officials of Pakistan's ISI continue to maintain ties with a wide array of extremist organizations,’ in particular the Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Taiba.” A separate cable released in September 2009 discusses the importance of solving the Kashmir conflict and reveals Pakistan’s fears that an “India-friendly government in Afghanistan will give India an opportunity to operate against Pakistan from Afghanistan.” An additional cable written in 2009 summarizes Pakistani apprehensions about an Indian military incursion following the 2008 Mumbai attacks.[v]
• According to a U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks, France previously had decided against supplying nuclear energy technology to Pakistan because of fears over the safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Jean-David Levitte, French President Nicolas Sarkozy's diplomatic adviser, told U.S. diplomats in 2009 that the French government was "not sure that the Pakistani nuclear deterrent [was] secure” due to “frequent movement of nuclear weapons by the Pakistani military."[vi]

FATA

• A blast in North Waziristan on Monday killed one person and wounded eight others. Five women were among the injured, including a female minor. The improvised explosive device detonated at a roadside restaurant in Miram Shah. Meanwhile, a political agent of North Waziristan confirmed that a NATO helicopter crossed into Pakistani airspace and detained five alleged members of the Haqqani network. However, the U.S. embassy in Islamabad has rejected the reports.[vii]
• Five people were killed and twelve others injured when a suicide bomber attacked a restaurant in the Pashat area of Salarzai sub-district of Bajaur Agency on Saturday. A local official, Saad Muhammad, said that the target of the attack was Malik Tehsil Khan, a member of an anti-Taliban militia, who was killed by the bomb. A spokesman for the TTP, Ehsanullah Ehsan, claimed responsibility for the attack, stating, “We carried out the bombing against the peace committee because they had joined the government and were maligning Taliban.”[viii]
• Seventeen militants were killed in the Mamuzai area of Orakzai on Tuesday in an operation by the Pakistani military. Five militant hideouts were also destroyed in the security offensive. [ix]

U.S.-Pakistani Relations

• On Friday, U.S. and Pakistani officials reportedly agreed on a framework to jointly tackle militancy and work for a settlement of the conflict in Afghanistan. Dawn reports that “Islamabad agreed to intensify operations against [al Qaeda] and affiliated groups in its territory, while Washington softened its stance on ‘unilateral action’ against high-profile terrorist targets inside Pakistan by underscoring the importance of acting together against terrorists.” The agreement comes as fourteen U.S. military trainers have left Pakistan, in keeping with Pakistan’s demands to keep the U.S. military presence in the country to a minimum. In talks on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also demanded intelligence sharing from the Pakistani government on five leading terrorists: Taliban leader Mullah Omar, senior al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri, Haqqani network operational commander Siraj Haqqani, senior al Qaeda member Ilyas Kashmiri and Libyan operations chief of al Qaeda Atiya Abdel Rahman.[x]
• On Sunday, Senator John McCain said that “new tensions in US-Pakistan relations were contributing to a rapid decline in support for the Afghan war in the United States.” McCain also said that Pakistan’s relationship with the Haqqani network was an issue of concern for U.S. officials. Meanwhile, a letter sent by five senators to Secretary Clinton and Secretary Gates demands an assessment of Pakistan’s commitment to fight militancy in the country before Congress considers sending more aid.[xi]

Bin Laden Raid and Response

• A spokesperson at Pakistan’s Foreign Office confirmed for the first time that Osama bin Laden possessed a "support network" in the country. The spokesperson said, “I would again like to recall that Secretary Clinton said that the US has absolutely no reason to believe that anyone at the highest levels of government knew about Osama and that there was an investigation being carried out to find out the facts….Obviously, there must have been a local support group, presumably consisting of [al Qaeda] and its affiliates, for bin Laden. This is common sense. The ongoing investigations hopefully will bare the truth.” On Sunday, Interior Minister Rehman Malik declared that a commission to investigate the operation in Abbottabad would be formed in two days.[xii]
• On Friday, a CIA team inspected Osama bin Laden’s former compound in Abbottabad. The team of three to five members arrived by helicopter and spent six hours in the residence. Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that according to documents seized in the residence, bin Laden had aimed to build a "grand coalition" of Afghan and Pakistani militant groups. According to Richard Barrett, head of the United Nations al Qaeda and Taliban sanctions committee, “Bin Laden found it pretty difficult to be marginalized and was making a huge effort to stay relevant. There was some indication that he was looking at re-energizing links with [other local militant groups] to give himself a central role." [xiii]

Karachi

• On Friday, six people were detained in connection to the recent militant attack on the PNS Mehran airbase in Karachi. Five of the suspects were apprehended in Karachi while the sixth was arrested in Faisalabad. Among the arrested was a former Navy commando, Kamran Malik, as well as his brother. According to local media outlets, Malik “had been court martialed 10 years ago on charges that he had assaulted a senior colleague, and that his telephone had been tapped in 2008 after an attack on a naval academy in Lahore.” Senior navy officials said that the terrorists had entered the base after breaching Pakistan Air Force’s security barriers on the southern side. The Sindh government has formed an eight-member Joint Interrogation Team (JIT) to investigate the attack as Pakistani military officials have become increasingly concerned that their ranks are being “penetrated by Islamists who are aiding militants in a campaign against the state.” Meanwhile, five other suspects were arrested for their alleged roles in ‘target killings’ within the city.[xiv]
• On Saturday, unidentified militants assaulted President Asif Ali Zardari’s Chief Security Officer, Bilal Shaikh. Shaikh was traveling to the Khamosh area in Karachi when the assailants opened fire on him. Two of his security officers were injured in the attack,conducted by at least fifteen militants. Shaikh named Lyari gangsters as the suspects, declaring that “Recently, I was being threatened by Lyari gangsters belonging to the Uzair Baloch group. They wanted to create [some sort of] controversy between the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement to disrupt the city’s law and order situation.”[xv]

Tahawwur Rana Trial

• The lawyers for Tahawwur Rana, the Chicago resident charged with providing material support in connection to the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, plan to argue that Rana had no knowledge of the terrorist assault plan and was deceived by David Headley. The Hindu also reports that the U.S. will not press Pakistan to extradite other suspects charged in connection with the attack. The media outlet additionally states that the FBI had ignored warnings from Headley's wives about his alleged militant connections. Meanwhile, ProPublica highlights Headley’s credibility issues as a man who was adept at juggling allegiances to the Drug Enforcement Agency, the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group, al Qaeda and the ISI.[xvi]

Indo-Pakistani Relations

• In the first meeting of the top civil servants from the Indian and Pakistan defense ministries in over three years, two days of talks were held in New Delhi to discuss how to withdraw troops from the area over the Siachen glacier. However, after two days of dialogue, no agreement was reached on the demilitarization of the area. According to Reuters, “India has long maintained that it was unwilling to bring its forces down from Siachen until Pakistan authenticated the positions they held. Pakistan in turn has said it was willing to do so, but on the condition it was not a final endorsement of India's claim to the glacier.” The two sides announced that they would meet again in Islamabad.[xvii]

‘Terrorists’ Arrested in Dera Ghazi Khan

• Five suspected terrorists were arrested in Dera Ghazi Khan. Among the men arrested was Mohammad Akram, suspected to have played a role in the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore on March 3. The men were also allegedly involved in the robbery of a bank in Taunsa Sharif and were suspected of raising funds for militant organizations.[xviii]

Malik Declares Amnesty for Young Taliban

• Addressing a Pakistan Peoples Party Youth Convention in Islamabad, Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik announced an amnesty for "young Taliban" who renounced violence. The minister urged them to “give up suicide bombings and other terrorist activities and help the government strengthen the country.” Malik also said he had prepared a summary regarding civil defense training for up to 25,000 youth.[xix]

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• A police officer was killed in the Regi area of Peshawar during a search operation on Sunday. Unidentified militants opened fire on security personnel, resulting in the death of the police inspector. A search operation into the incident has commenced.[xx]
• On Saturday, Awami National Party (ANP) local leader Muzaffar Ali Khan was killed in Swat. The attack took place in the Shakardarra area of the Matta sub-district when militants hurled hand grenades and opened fire on the ANP leader, a police official, and a guest. A spokesman for the TTP Swat chapter, Omar Hassan Ahrabi, claimed responsibility for the attack.[xxi]

Balochistan

• On Sunday, two policemen were killed and three others sustained casualties in Quetta after unidentified militants attacked a security checkpoint. A search operation into the incident has commenced.[xxii]