Pakistan Security Brief - June 9, 2011

Over 100 militants attack a checkpost in Waziristan; the former head of the ISI says it is “unlikely” Bin Laden hid in Abbottabad for 5 years; CIA Director Panetta notes importance of working with Pakistan; a bomb went off near a school in Peshawar, killing four; 139th Corps Commanders Conference held at GHQ; Chief Minister of Khyber-Pakhtunkwa blames ”US and Afghan forces” for “allowing” recent attack; Karzai will seek Pakistani support for peace talks during visit to Islamabad; NATO oil tanker destroyed in Khyber; Five rangers held over shooting of Karachi teen; India tests missile; India has given all evidence regarding the Mumbai attacks to Pakistan; International Media Support “set[s] up safety fund for Pakistani journalists.”

Militant Attack in Waziristan

• On Thursday, eight soldiers were killed when over 100 militants attacked a security post in Makin. At least 12 militants, who were armed with rockets, were also killed. The attack comes in the wake of recent drone attacks and talk of a military operation in North Waziristan. No militant group has claimed responsibility for the attack yet. Reuters reports that the attack could be “part of a new strategy [of] the Pakistani Taliban of staging large-scale assaults on military and government targets in a bid to demoralize the army.” The attackers could also be trying to encourage other militant groups to join the battle.
• In the event of a military operation in North Waziristan, UN officials told Dawn they will “establish a big camp in Domail area of Bannu district that can accommodate 265,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) from North Waziristan Agency.” As of the 1998 census, the population of North Waziristan was over 350,000. UN officials expect a “mass exodus in the event of military action.”[i]

Bin Laden Aftermath

• AP reports that analysis of the trove of information found in Bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound is fueling US counterterrorism operations. According to Dawn, the CIA is “95 percent finished decrypting and translating the years of material and expect to complete the effort by mid-June.” Reportedly, the material does not “indicate an imminent attack,” but it does shed light on the types of targets Bin Laden would suggest, “from smaller US cities to mass transport systems, to US embassies abroad and even oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.”Additionally, communications between Bin Laden and different al-Qaeda operatives and networks show the “personalities” and motivations of different al-Qaeda operatives in how they correspond with Bin Laden.[ii]
• Gen. Ehsan ul-Haq, former head of the Pakistani intelligence agency (ISI), says he doubts Bin Laden had been in Abbottbad for five years. He argues that “[i]t would have been entirely uncharacteristic of al Qaeda to keep its leadership in one position for so long.” He also admits to being “surprised and embarrassed” that ISI was unable to apprehend Bin Laden before the US operation on May 2.[iii]

Panetta addresses U.S.-Pakistani Cooperation

• Ahead of the Senate hearing to consider his nomination as Secretary of Defense, current CIA director Leon Panetta stated, “Continuing cooperation with Pakistan is critical to keep a tremendous amount of pressure on al Qaeda’s leadership and the networks that provide it support and safe haven at a time when it is most vulnerable.” He also stressed that Pakistan should do more to combat terrorism and “live up to [their] end of the bargain.”[iv]

Blast in Peshawar Market

• Four people were killed on Thursday when a “blast hit a passenger vehicle” in the Matni area of Peshawar. According to Dawn, “[s]everal anti-Taliban militias are based in the area.” Two people were also killed in Saber Killy “in a roadside bombing against a vehicle carrying food supplies for a paramilitary camp.”[v]

Pakistani Corps Commanders Conference

• The News reports, the “139th Corps Commanders Conference was held at the GHQ on Thursday with the [Chief of Army Staff] General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in the chair.” The participants reportedly discussed the aftermath of the May 2raid in Abbottabad and the “military to military relationship with the U.S.” The information, based on a press release by the Pakistani military, also said that the Corps Commanders decided “to share intelligence [with the U.S.] strictly on the basis of reciprocity and complete transparency.” Gen. Kayani also claimed that of the $13-15 billion supposedly given to Pakistani army in U.S. aid in the last ten years, only $8.6 billion has been received.[vi]

Khyber-Pakhtunkwa Chief Minister Blames US and Afghan Forces

• On Wednesday, Chief Minister Ameer Haider Khan Hoti blamed US and Afghan forces for not preventing militants from conducting cross-border assaults in his region. Hoti was in Upper Dir “after the deadliest-ever cross-border attack this week,” referring to an incident when hundreds  of Taliban militants crossing into Pakistan from Afghanistan besieged a Pakistani checkpoint in Dir for four days straight. Hoti stated, “[t]he attack suggests that either they . . . are not capable of thwarting such incidents or they don’t want to stop such attacks.” According to Dawn, “27 security forces personnel and four civilians were killed in the attack.”[vii]

Karzai to Seek Pakistani Support on Peace Talks

• During his visit to Islamabad on Friday, Afghan President Hamid Karzai will seek “public assurances from Pakistani leaders in Islamabad on Friday that they will protect any Taliban officials who want to enter peace talks, according to Afghan officials.” This will also be an opportunity to measure if relations between the two countries have changed since the death of Bin Laden in Pakistan. According to The Wall Street Journal, “[t] he raid aggravated tensions, as Afghan officials said bin Laden's presence in Pakistan proved their longstanding contention that the war against terrorism should be focused there, not in Afghanistan.”[viii]

Khyber Oil Tanker Explosion

• Dawn reports a NATO oil tanker was destroyed in an explosion in Khyber today. As a result, the “Pak-Afghan border highway was . . . closed, resulting in a suspension of the supply to Nato forces in Afghanistan.”[ix]

Investigation of Teen Shooting in Karachi

• Police in Karachi have arrested five members of the paramilitary Rangers force in Karachi following public outcry after Rangers personnel apparently shot and killed an unarmed youth. A video of the shooting was uploaded to YouTube and appears to show the youth, who was arrested for allegedly robbing people in a public park, begging for his life before being shot at point-blank range. The Rangers claim the man was armed and reached for one of the guns pointed at him. Police are investigating the claims the incident. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has ordered an inquiry into the incident.[x]

Indian Missile Tests

• AFP reports that India tested a short-range Prithvi-II missile “along its eastern coast” today. The missile is capable of carrying a nuclear payload. AFP notes that India “is developing a series of missiles as part of the country’s deterrent strategy against neighbouring Pakistan and China.” The missile successfully hit its target, according to the report.[xi]

Mumbai Attacks Evidence Given to Pakistan

• According to Pakistani news outlet Geo, the Indian home minister, P. Chidambaram, claimed that India has handed over all evidence regarding the Mumbai attacks to Pakistan. India has stated in the past that Pakistan must bring those responsible for the attacks of November 26, 2008 to justice before the two countries could improve relations. The attacks, executed by the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, killed 164 people.[xii]

Journalist Safety

• In light of increasing violence and threats of violence against journalists in Pakistan, International Media Support (IMS), a “non-profit organisation working to support local media in countries affected by armed conflict,” has set up “[a] safety fund for the Pakistani journalists.” The safety fund will be used to provide resources to relocate and protect threatened journalists.[xiii]