Pakistan Security Brief - July 5, 2011

U.S. expanding Central Asia supply routes to Afghanistan; U.S. officials: ISI ordered Shahzad killing; McCain urges acknowledgement of ISI ties to militants; Conflicting reports regarding U.S. use of Shamshi air base continue; Documents show al Qaeda under strain; Pakistanis protest U.S. embassy gay rights event; Former militant says Pakistani military continues to support militants; Pakistani military struggles to regain popular support; Afghanistan-Pakistan relations remain tense with cross-border attacks; Afghan governor says Pakistan supports militants; Pakistani Taliban sold bomber to Haqqani network for Afghanistan attack; Pakistan military begins Kurram offensive; Haqqani Network “disowns” ex-TTP commander Saeed; Afghan mortar shells wound Pakistanis; Hundreds of militants cross Afghan border to attack security post in Bajaur; U.S. increases drone strikes in South Waziristan; FATA leaders oppose drone strikes at jirga; TTP intelligence head arrested in Islamabad raid; Balochistan to double paramilitary force size; Militants attack police in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa; Rangers case to stay in ATC; Kharotabad tribunal makes limited recommendations.

  U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• On Saturday, the Washington Post reported the U.S. “is rapidly expanding its aerial and Central Asian supply routes to the war in Afghanistan,” given recent struggles in the U.S.-Pakistani relationship. While shipping supplies through Pakistan is significantly cheaper than the alternative, recent mishaps have put a strain on U.S.-Pakistan relations, pushing the U.S. to seek other means of supplying its troops in Afghanistan. The report also raises concerns that U.S. cooperation with oppressive regimes in Central Asia could send the wrong message on human rights.[i]

• Senior Obama administration officials stated the U.S. has seen intelligence proving “senior officials” of the ISI ordered the killing of Pakistani journalist Saleem Shahzad, according to a New York Times report. They claim the killing was aimed at sending “shock waves through Pakistan’s journalist community and civil society.” A Pakistani judicial commission is currently investigating Shahzad’s murder. Though the ISI is largely suspected, the commission has yet to implicate the ISI in the murder.[ii]

• On Sunday, Senator John McCain said “ties between Afghan insurgents and Inter Service Intelligence agency (ISI) needed to be acknowledged.” Senator McCain said relations with Pakistan should be based on realism with no room for overlooking Pakistan’s links to the Haqqani network and the Taliban. [iii]

• Representatives from the U.S. and Pakistan are reportedly meeting on Tuesday to discuss continued cooperation in the war on terror. U.S.-Pakistan relations have been tense since the May 2 raid that killed Osama Bin Laden.[iv]

• There have been conflicting responses to the reported U.S. evacuation of Shamshi air base in Balochistan. Last Wednesday, Pakistan’s Defence Secretary Ahmed Mukhtar announced Pakistan had asked the U.S. to evacuate Shamshi air base, largely suspected of being used as a base for drone strikes in the region. On Friday, the Federal Information Minister Firdous Ashiq Awan said the U.S. evacuation of the base was “only a media issue.” According to Geo, U.S. and Pakistani officials have stated that the U.S. stopped launching drone strikes from Shamshi three months ago, meaning all drone strikes since that time have been launched from Afghanistan. On Sunday, however, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani insisted “the U.S. was never given access to Shamsi airbase for carrying out drone attacks.”[v]

• More documents retrieved from Osama Bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound reveal that al Qaeda is under an enormous amount of strain. Bin Laden reportedly established a counter-intelligence unit, “only to receive a complaint in mid-2010 from the unit’s leader that it was losing the ‘espionage war’ and couldn’t function on its paltry budget.” In a letter to the terrorist leader, Atiyah abd al-Rahman, “who served as No. 3 in al Qaeda before bin Laden’s death,” expresses that “their guys were getting killed faster than they could be replaced.”[vi]

• Pakistanis protested a U.S. Embassy-hosted gay rights event, calling the event “cultural terrorism.” U.S. embassy officials have insisted the U.S. will continue to support the quest for “gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender rights in Pakistan.”[vii]

Pakistani Military Affairs

• An article in Sunday’s New York Times, cites a former militant commander as saying the Pakistani military “continues to nurture a broad range of militant groups.” The former militant claims the Pakistani military provides “training, strategic planning and protection” for groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT,) Harkat-ul-Mujahedeen (HuM) and Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM.) He also says Pakistani support for militant groups is a joint-effort led by “mullahs and retired generals.” He claims former security officials met with Taliban militants in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa soon after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan to decide how to combat the invasion. The source claims former intelligence officials Maj. Gen. Zaheer ul-Islam Abbasi, who attempted a coup against Benazir Bhutto in 1995, and Brig. Sultan Amir, popularly known as Colonel Imam, attended the meeting.[viii]

• The LA Times reports the Pakistani army is struggling to repair its reputation after recent scandals. The article relates the traditional respect shown towards the military in Pakistan and how recent public challenges to the security establishment show a break from history.[ix]

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

• On Friday, forty rockets were fired from Pakistan into eastern Afghanistan. General Aminullah Amarkhil, head of the regional Afghan border police, resigned stating he was not permitted to return fire and could not stand to “see [his] people being killed by shells fired from Pakistan.” On Monday, Pakistan complained that militants had launched another attack from the Afghan side of the border into Bajaur, killing one soldier. The Express Tribune reports Afghanistan and Pakistan will establish a military “hotline” to avoid any further escalation of tensions.[x]

• On Saturday, Afghan district governor Wali Shah claimed it was difficult to defeat militants based in Pakistan because the “Pakistan[i] government protects them.”[xi]

• CNN reports the Pakistani Taliban “recruited and trained a suicide bomber, then sold him to the Haqqani network to carry out an attack in Afghanistan.” The bomber was arrested before executing the attack, according to Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security (NDS.)[xii]

FATA

• The Pakistani military has reportedly launched an offensive targeting militants based in Kurram Agency, though, so far, they have met little resistance. Many civilians have already fled their homes to take refuge in relief camps in anticipation of the operation. Although a peace deal was struck in Kurram in February, continued militant attacks have caused it to fall through. The FATA Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) has reportedly requested U.N. assistance in dealing with refugees. The Express Tribune reports a Shia-Pashtun tribe, the Turis, have resisted Taliban influence in Kurram for three years. The Turis have suffered heavy losses under Taliban siege, with be inadequate government support. Sectarian strife has been a source of tension in Kurram for decades.[xiii]

• The Haqqani Network has reportedly “disowned” Fazal Saeed Haqqani, the former Kurram Agency TTP commander, claiming he holds no affiliation to the Haqqani Network. Saeed quit the TTP last week, claiming his disagreement with the group for its use of suicide bombings in public places and mosques. He has formed his own group, called the Tehrik-e-Taliban Islam Pakistan (TTIP,) for which he claims to have received widespread offers of support.[xiv]

• The Express Tribune reports the Saeed’s public renunciation of the TTP, recent arrests and killings have left TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud weak and “isolated.” Very few people within the TTP know of Mehsud’s whereabouts. Increased targeting of TTP militants has forced him into isolation.[xv]

• According to the Express Tribune, mortar shells fired from Afghanistan wounded four Pakistanis in the Ghulam Khan sub-district of North Waziristan on Monday. Local officials suspect militants fired the shells from Khost. On Tuesday, a roadside bomb killed two soldiers in Miran Shah. Another attack on a military convoy in the area earlier on Tuesday wounded three soldiers.[xvi]

• On Monday, at least three hundred militants crossed from Afghanistan into Bajaur Agency to attack a security post, killing one soldier and wounding another. Four militants were also killed in retaliatory fire.[xvii]

• The News reports the U.S. has begun to focus drone strikes on South Waziristan, pointing to the targets of last month’s strikes. Eight of twelve drone strikes in June reportedly struck targets in South Waziristan. More people were killed by drone strikes in June than in any other month this year.[xviii]

• According to Dawn, leaders from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were to attend a jirga on July 4 to discuss their opposition to drone strikes. The leaders demanded President Asif Ali Zardari put an end to drone strikes in the region.[xix]

TTP Intelligence Chief Captured

• On Saturday, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) head of intelligence Zia ur Rehman was captured in a raid in Islamabad. He has reportedly been moved “to an undisclosed location for interrogation.” This comes as the latest in a string of recent of TTP arrests.[xx]

Balochistan

• Given increased violence in the province, the Balochistan government has decided to double the force size of the paramilitary Levies, in an effort to “revamp the security infrastructure in Balochistan.” Separatist violence in the region has spiked recently along with the incidence of targeted killings. Geo reports four people were killed when gunmen opened fire at a wedding ceremony in Kalat district on Friday night.[xxi]

• Pakistan has reportedly launched a search operation to track down two Swiss nationals taken hostage in Loralai on Friday. On Monday, it was reported that the hostages had been moved from Balochistan to the tribal areas.[xxii]

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• On Sunday, militants attacked a checkpost in Shangla killing three policemen. A surviving police officer said Taliban militants came from the mountains, attacked, and successfully fled afterwards. On Monday, a hand-grenade attack on a Gulabad checkpost killed “a sweeper of the local school,” and a policeman was killed in an ambush in Gulberg locality number two.[xxiii]

Investigations

• In the case of the Rangers’ killing of Sarfaraz Shah, the anti-terrorism court has rejected challenges to its jurisdiction. The Rangers’ defense requested that the case be shifted out of the anti-terrorism court (ATC,) but the court insisted that extra-judicial executions fell under the ATC’s jurisdiction according to section 7 of the Anti-Terrorism Act (1997.)[xxiv]

• The tribunal formed to investigate the shooting of five foreigners in Kharotabad has made no clear recommendations in its report on the incident. While it was originally reported that the report would recommend that criminal charges be brought against security personnel involved in the shooting, the report makes only vague suggestions regarding the improvement of the police force. The report also states that though the foreigners were unarmed, evidence shows they had terrorist training and were linked to militant groups operating in Pakistan.[xxv]