Pakistan Security Brief - July 27, 2011

Indian and Pakistani Foreign Ministers meet in New Delhi; Dempsey to continue to push Pakistan to crack down on militants; Fai out on bond; U.S. declassifies documents on efforts to counter Pakistani nuclear proliferation; Arrest in Nepal not connected to Mumbai bombing; Mumbai investigation focuses on Indian Mujahideen; Al Qaeda close to collapse: U.S. officials; Al Qaeda still poses threat to targets within U.S.; Kurram offensive continues; Twelve more killed in Karachi; Sarfaraz Shah killers not terrorists.

  India-Pakistan Relations

• On Wednesday, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna met in New Delhi. Khar commented that the meeting marked the beginning of a “new era of bilateral cooperation.” The ministers agreed to boost trade and between the two countries as a confidence-building measure.[i]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• At his confirmation hearing on Tuesday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff appointee Gen. Martin Dempsey said he would continue to push Pakistan to purge its tribal northwest of militants. Gen. Dempsey also remarked that Pakistan “persist[s] in the idea that India poses an existential threat . . . while terrorists that operate with some impunity” in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the FATA “are less of a threat to them.”[ii]

• On Tuesday, Kashmiri American Center executive director Syed Ghulam Nabi Fai, who has been accused as operating as an unregistered foreign agent, has been released on a $100,000 bond. Fai is now “under home detention with electronic monitoring.” It was recently discovered that Fai’s organization may have accepted money from Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and used that money for lobbying and campaign contributions. On Tuesday, the prosecution revealed that Fai had admitted to taking money from the ISI. Fai claims, however, that he did not pursue an agenda at the ISI’s urging.[iii]

• AFP reports the U.S. ran a “secret diplomatic campaign in the 1970s to prevent Pakistan from developing nuclear weapons.” Recently declassified files show that the U.S. warned governments they thought Pakistan would contact that Pakistan was seeking nuclear materials. U.S. officials reportedly feared that a nuclear Pakistan could lead to nuclear proliferation around the Muslim world.[iv]

• The Guardian reports aid organizations are struggling to get access to flood afflicted areas in Pakistan amidst suspicions of U.S. intelligence activity. In the aftermath of the May 2 operation that killed Bin Laden, and the “fake” vaccination project the CIA used in the lead-up, the Pakistani authorities have begun hassling aid workers over visa issues and other possible discrepancies.[v]

Mumbai Bombing Investigation

• An Indian man arrested in Nepal over the weekend was reportedly questioned regarding the July 13 attacks on Mumbai, but Nepalese police have now denied his connection to the attacks. The man, Muhammad Zahir, was arrested for “drunk and disorderly conduct” and was not detained in connection with the attacks.[vi]

• The Associated Press reported on Tuesday that the investigation of those responsible for July 13’s attacks in Mumbai is, in fact, focused on the Indian Mujahideen (IM). Indian authorities believed they had destroyed the group in a crackdown three years ago. According to the police, the use of ammonium nitrate in the bombs is reminiscent of other IM attacks. The IM reportedly “sprang out” of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and has made several unconfirmed claims to attacks over the years. The focus of the investigation on IM may signal a shift from blaming Pakistan-based groups, though it has been alleged in the past that IM is linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).[vii]

Al Qaeda

• The Washington Post reports U.S. counter-terrorism officials believe al Qaeda is on “the brink of collapse.” Officials reportedly credit military operations and drone strikes with delivering significant blows to the organization. Although al Qaeda could still “rally,” damage done by the U.S. in the last several years has weakened them significantly at least in the short term.[viii]

• On Tuesday, Matthew Olsen, who has been chosen as the new head of the National Counterterrorism Center, said at his confirmation hearing that al Qaeda still sought to launch attacks on American soil despite the death of Bin Laden and other recent developments. Olsen noted that al Qaeda had become decentralized and threats were as or more likely to come from fringe actors as from the senior leadership. Members of the Intelligence Committee attending the hearing expressed concerns regarding the presence of al Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and Somalia and the prospect of a tenth anniversary 9/11 attack.[ix]

FATA

• On Tuesday, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), said the military offensive in Kurram Agency was ongoing and that many militants had already been killed. Abbas reaffirmed that the offensive’s goal was to “link upper and lower Kurram.” AFP reports that up to 100,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have already been registered in temporary camps in the aftermath of the offensive.[x]

• A Tuesday ISPR press release claims the Pakistani military has successfully cleared South Waziristan’s Janata Valley of militants. Troops also defused explosives and “destroyed propaganda material being used by [militants].” The operation began on July 13 when the army launched its “Tri Star” operation.[xi]

Karachi

• Dawn reports at least twelve people have been killed in targeted killings across Karachi in the last day. At least two of those killed were “political activists.” Inspector General Sindh Wajid Ali Khan Durrani claimed that those executing the killings were “better armed” than the Karachi police.[xii]

• A Joint Investigating Team (JIT) has released a report on the extrajudicial killing of an unarmed youth in Karachi that declares the Rangers accused of the killing should be charged with murder, not terrorism, and tried outside of an anti-terrorism court (ATC). The defense has previously requested that the trial be moved out of the ATC, saying the shooting was not an act of terrorism.[xiii]