Pakistan Security Brief - October 4, 2011

ISI brokered meeting between U.S. and Haqqani Network, pushed for Haqqani element in Afghan government; Allen cites Pakistan safe havens as biggest challenge in Afghanistan; Gilani claims victory in U.S.-Pakistan row; Pakistan calls for U.S. to investigate January 27 shooting in Lahore; Karzai criticizes Pakistani cooperation on security issues; Afghan officials accuse Pakistan of refusal to assist in Rabbani murder investigation; China-Pakistan relationship falls short of defense agreement; TTP welcomes negotiation with Pakistani government; 12 Shias killed by gunmen in Quetta; 8 charity workers released; Taliban demand restoration of power in North Waziristan; Rival militant groups conduct prisoner exchange; Five suspected assassins arrested; UN calls for more international aid to Pakistan; Taseer murder case judge goes on leave after receiving death threats.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) reportedly brokered a meeting between U.S. officials and representatives from the Haqqani Network that was held months before the September attacks orchestrated by the Haqqani Network in Kabul. According to ABC News, the U.S. agreed to the meeting in response to Pakistan’s belief that a successful U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan could only come through political negotiations with key militant groups. Also, Sirajuddin Haqqani, a leader of the Haqqani Network, said that the U.S. approached him and promised him an “important role in the government of Afghanistan.”  The article suggests that the U.S. attempt to foster political dialogue with the Haqqani Network ended following the attacks on the U.S. Embassy which pushed the U.S. to condemn the ISI’s affiliation with the Haqqani Network.[1]

• U.S. General John Allen, commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), described Pakistan’s militant safe havens as his biggest challenge in securing Afghanistan. According to the military, cross border attacks have increased 500 percent in the past year, increasing from 60 to over 300 attacks. Allen also suggested that the majority of explosives in Afghanistan come over from Pakistan.[2]

• Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani commended the unified stance of Pakistan’s political parties which pushed the U.S. to soften its recent criticism of Pakistan. Gilani claimed that last week’s All Party Conference (APC) had been instrumental in motivating President Obama to admit that the intelligence was unclear as to the exact nature of the relationship between ISI and the Haqqani Network.[3]

• Pakistan has called for the U.S. to investigate the January 27 Lahore shooting by CIA contractor Raymond Davis following Davis’s arrest in Colorado over the weekend for unrelated offenses.  The U.S. Department of Justice reportedly informed Pakistan that the incident, which killed two Pakistani citizens, is currently under review.[4] 

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

•  Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai spoke out against Pakistan’s failure to cooperate on security issues on Monday. Karzai announced, “Despite all destructions, calamities and problems, faced by both our country and Pakistan, a double-standard game and [the use of] terrorism as a tool continued.” Karzai also announced plans to convene a Loya Jirga tribal meeting in the wake of Afghan peace envoy, Burhanuddin Rabbani’s assassination. Afghan investigators have indicated that Rabbani was killed by a Pakistani member of the Haqqani Network, a claim the Pakistani government denies. In the midst of the heightened tension between the two countries, Karzai has begun a two-day visit to India.  The Indian Express Newsletter reported that Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may sign a “strategic partnership” agreement which could include a provision for India to train the Afghan National Security forces.[5]

• Afghan officials have accused Pakistan of refusing to assist in the investigation of Rabbani’s murder. The National Directorate of Security (NDS), Afghanistan’s intelligence service, alleged that it handed over evidence from the Rabbani case last Thursday, but Pakistan failed to act. The NDS also claimed that the assassination was carried out by a Pakistani militant and plotted in Quetta. Pakistani authorities questioned the veracity of the evidence and emphasized that Rabbani’s peace efforts were appreciated throughout Pakistan.[6]

Pakistan-China Relations

• Despite recent diplomatic and economic agreements between China and Pakistan, analysts suggest that China will stop short of entering into a bilateral defense alliance with Pakistan. Following growing tension with the U.S., Chinese public security minister, Meng Jianzhu, visited Pakistan last week and emphasized the “all-weather friendship” of the two countries. During the visit, Meng pledged approximately $250 million of economic aid to Pakistan. Andrew Small, a researcher at the German Marshal Fund, suggested that diplomatic and economic agreements were as far as China would go with Pakistan. Speaking on the possibility of a defense agreement, Small said, “I don’t see why they would suddenly want to be stuck with the liability of Pakistan, particularly vis-a-vis India, given the way Pakistan has behaved in a number of crisis situations.”[7]

Pakistani Politics

• Following Prime Minister Gilani’s Monday statement that the government was ready to negotiate with “decommissioned” militants, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) deputy commander of Bajaur agency, Maulvi Faqir Muhammad, spoke to the Express Tribune, saying that the “TTP welcome[d] the prime minister’s offer.”  Muhammad reportedly “set two preconditions: the [Pakistani] government should reconsider its relationship with the U.S. and enforce Islamic Sharia [law] in the country.” Muhammad also called for direct negotiation, rejecting the use of a mediator.[8] 

Balochistan

• Armed gunmen attacked a bus of Shia Hazara laborers traveling near Quetta on Tuesday, killing 12 Shias and one Sunni.  The bus was boarded by gunmen who “forced the people off the bus, made them stand in a line, and then opened fire” on them.  Seven other people were injured.  This incident came two weeks after a bus of Shia Hazara pilgrims was attacked by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), killing 25 people. Protests erupted on the streets of Quetta against the government for failing to ensure the safety of the Hazara ethnic group in Balochistan.[9]

FATA

• Eight charity workers for American Refugee Committee (ARC) have been released after being held near the Afghan border in South Waziristan for over two months.  The Pakistanis, who worked for the U.S.-based charity, were kidnapped from Quetta and held by the Taliban.  ARC’s provincial coordinator, Muhammad Shafique, did not comment on whether ARC paid a ransom for the release of the workers.[10]

• In a statement to the media, Maulvi Abdul Khaliq Haqqani, a senior Taliban commander in North Waziristan, demanded that the Tribal Electric Supply Company (Tesco) restore power to North Waziristan following nationwide power outages.  Haqqani threatened to “send suicide bombers to eliminate two [Tesco] officials” if his demands were not met within 48 hours. Haqqani also directed Taliban fighters to kidnap Tesco officials.[11]

• A prisoner swap between the rival militant groups Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and Ansarul Islam (AI) took place in Khyber agency on Monday. A TTP commander reportedly brokered the prisoner exchange through mediation.[12]

Karachi Violence

• The Karachi Criminal Investigation Department (CID) arrested five suspected assassins through raids in Pak Colony and Baldia Town on Tuesday. CID chief, Chaudhry Aslam Khan, announced that the suspects were linked to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and had confessed to 17 murders.[13]

Flooding

• The UN warned on Monday that Pakistan was in need of additional international aid to deal with its current humanitarian crisis.  Recent flooding has killed more than 350 people, has made millions of Pakistanis homeless, and has generated severe food insecurity in regions hit by flooding.[14]

Taseer Murder Case

• The judge who oversaw the Salmaan Taseer’s murder case, Justice Pervaiz Shah, has gone on indefinite leave after receiving numerous death threats. The accused in the case, Taseer’s former police bodyguard, was recently sentenced to death.[15]