Pakistan Security Brief - November 29, 2011

U.S. and Pakistan spar over Saturday’s NATO raid that killed 24 Pakistani troops; U.S. speculates future of U.S.-Pakistan relations; Pakistanis protest NATO raid; U.S. faces international criticism for NATO attack; Haqqani Network death squads terrorize border residents; Malik claims “foreign hand” behind Karachi violence; Police recover large arms cache in graveyard; Warraich responds to Qureshi’s nuclear allegation; Police arrest militant leader Ameerullah; 14 militants and one security officer killed in Orakzai agency operations; Gilgit-Baltistan residents push for greater autonomy.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• On Monday, responding to the recent U.S. border raid that killed 24 Pakistani troops, Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani told CNN that a review of Pakistan’s largely unpopular alliance with the U.S. was in order and pledged that bilateral military and diplomatic relations would no longer be “business as usual.” On Tuesday, Prime Minister Gilani declared that he would convene a joint session of parliament to discuss the NATO attack and “memogate” scandal.  Pakistan Army General Ashfaq Nadeem branded Saturday’s attack a “deliberate act of aggression,” while both the Pakistan Army and Afghan troops maintain that they “believed they were attacking insurgents along the border Saturday when the strike was launched.” Meanwhile, Pakistan formally announced that it would boycott the Bonn Conference on the future of Afghanistan on Tuesday.[1]

• Also on Monday, U.S. Department of State spokesman Mark Toner “expressed concern” over the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations but indicated his confidence that bilateral relations would “move forward” despite a series of “significant setbacks,” including Saturday’s deadly NATO raid in Pakistan, which President Obama labeled a “tragedy.”  President Obama’s former Director of National Inteligence (DNI), Dennis Blair, spoke up about the incident, referring to current U.S.-Pakistan relations as “deformed” and warning that the U.S. should no longer look to Pakistan for success against Pakistan-based militants in Afghanistan.  Similarly, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little announced that the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan would continue “despite Pakistan’s decision to cut off supplies to NATO-led forces.” Pakistani border officials have refused to allow NATO container trucks and oil tankers to cross into Afghanistan at two important border crossings.  Little also said that General John Allen, the senior U.S. and ISAF commander in Afghanistan, had called on the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) “to lead an investigation into the air strikes.” The initial findings of the investigation are expected to be announced on December 23.[2]

• The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) continued demonstrations throughout the country to condemn the NATO attack and “show solidarity” with the Pakistan Army as Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan challenged President Asif Ali Zardari on for his failure to denounce the NATO raid, attributing Zardari’s silence to corruption.  Tribal elders in Kurram and Orakzai agencies as well as the Frontier Region of Kohat offered to “take revenge” for the NATO attack, if granted permission by the Pakistani government and Pakistan Army.  Furthermore, Reuters reported that Saturday’s incident has given Pakistan “a rare opportunity” to exercise its “strategic ambitions in…Afghanistan” as Pakistan may choose to use “its influence over militant groups” as leverage against U.S. interests.[3] 

• On Monday, President Zardari rejected an appeal made by the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan to reevaluate Pakistan’s order for the U.S. to “vacate Shamsi Airbase [in Balochistan] within 15 days,” which has reportedly been leased to the UAE since 1992. Analysts dispute claims that the U.S. drone campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan will not be affected by the withdrawal.  President Zardari cited that he could not overturn a decision made by the Cabinet Committee on Defence (DCC), which also moved to close Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan and shut-down NATO supply routes.  Later, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed China in expressing shock and disapproval of the NATO attack, noting that NATO’s violation of Pakistani sovereignty was unacceptable, even during a counterterrorism operation. Meanwhile, on Tuesday China’s People’s Daily newspaper, which is considered a “mouthpiece of China’s ruling Communist party,” published a harsh editorial criticizing the U.S. and NATO over Saturday’s violation of “international law and international norms.”[4]

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

• U.S. and Afghan officials believe that the sharp rise in targeted killings along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border are the result of al Qaeda and Haqqani Network counterintelligence units tasked with killing informants and terrorizing locals. U.S. military officials claim that the units act as ‘death squads’ and one group, which is known as the Khurasan and operates out of Pakistan, has carried out over 250 assassinations and public executions along the border.   According to the New York Times, the assassination campaign seeks to demonstrate the Haqqani Network’s resilience despite increased NATO pressure along the border.[5]

Karachi Violence

• On Tuesday, Interior Minister Rehman Malik alleged that the recent violence in Karachi was orchestrated by “foreign elements” seeking to spread “hatred and sectarianism” throughout the region.  Malik also announced his support of the Pakistani government’s action against NATO which included blocking NATO supplies bound to Afghanistan through Pakistan and ordering the U.S. withdrawal from Shamsi airbase in Balochistan.[6]

• Police retrieved a large cache of arms and explosives hidden in a graveyard in the Mominabad area of Karachi on Tuesday. Also, five militants were arrested for plotting a terrorist attack during Muharram processions in the city.[7]

Pakistani Politics

• On Monday, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) President in central Punjab Imtiaz Safdar Warraich countered former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s assertion that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was not properly secured by the PPP-led government.  Warraich suggested that Qureshi solely sought to discredit the government and pointed out that Qureshi had claimed that Pakistan’s nuclear assets were safe while in office.[8]

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

• Police arrested a top militant leader named Ameerullah in Nowshera on Tuesday. According to Dawn, Ameerullah was a high-ranking commander that primarily operated out of Dir district.[9]

FATA

• Fourteen militants and one security officer were killed in two operations conducted in upper Orakzai agency on Tuesday.  In one incident, six militants were killed when security forces shelled two militant hideouts.  Separately, eight militants and one security officer were killed in a firefight in Khadezai.[10]

Kashmir

• Despite being granted limited autonomy in 2009, residents of Gilgit-Baltistan in northeast Kashmir have been pushing for greater independence from the Pakistani government.  According to Nawaz Khan Naji, founder and president of the Balawaristan National Front, “Autonomy is an illusion…[and] Gilgit-Baltistan has not been formally recognized as a province in Pakistan’s constitution. It is governed according to a ‘colonial system’ by Islamabad-appointed bureaucrats.”[11]