Pakistan Security Brief - December 12, 2011

Pakistan continues NATO blockade for 17th day; CIA withdraws from Shamsi Airbase, Pakistani defense directive: U.S. drones in Pakistani airspace will be shot down; CFR releases Preventative Action report for 2012; Deputy TTP commander announces peace talks in Bajaur agency; TTP spokesman, Gilani, and Malik all deny earlier claim of peace talks; U.S. doubts LeJ splinter group responsible for Ashura attacks in Afghanistan; Key ambassadors recalled to Pakistan for Monday meeting; PPP in favor of South Punjab province; Pakistan Tehrik-e-Istaqlal unites with PTI, Khan receptive to working with U.S. on “all issues”; Zardari to remain in Dubai another two weeks, says Gilani; Memogate Supreme Court hearing to begin December 19; High Commissioner to the UK to appear before the Abbottabad Commission; National Assembly to be briefed on human rights violations in Parachinar; Former DG of ISI recalls North Korean bribe attempt; Man killed in bombing near Karachi University.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations 

• On Friday, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey said that the U.S. was “trying to be patient with Pakistan” after the country enforced a blockade of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in an attempt to disrupt NATO supply routes following the November 26 NATO raid that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.  Dempsey articulated that U.S.-Pakistan relations were encountering a “very difficult time” but maintained that the Pakistani border post was not attacked intentionally. Dempsey also acknowledged that using alternative NATO supply routes was both costly and time consuming for the U.S. and expressed hope that Pakistan would soon re-open its border crossings to allow for NATO supplies to reach troops in Afghanistan.  Meanwhile, Associated Press reports on the “unanimous support” for Pakistan’s border blockade among Pakistani truckers, as Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani announced that the border blockade may last for another “several weeks.”  Many of the NATO truckers have not abandoned their vehicles which, the Associated Press says, “suggests the trucking companies believe the stoppage will be temporary.”  In the meantime, “stranded supply trucks [have become] vulnerable” to militant attacks, with a deadly attack taking place outside of Quetta on Sunday night that destroyed eight NATO oil tankers and killed one truck driver.  And, Dawn reports on the impact the blockade is having on Pakistan’s economy and commercial ports, which have become “clogged” with NATO supplies awaiting transit, while the Express Tribune reports that a permanent NATO blockade may “destroy the entire transport business in Pakistan.”[1]

• The CIA completely withdrew from Shamsi Airbase in Balochistan on Sunday; the base had previously functioned as the command center of U.S. drone operations in Pakistan’s tribal regions.  The U.S. withdrawal came in response to Pakistani demands following NATO airstrikes which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on November 26. Anonymous comments from U.S. officials suggest that the U.S. will retain its ability to conduct drone strikes in Pakistan. On Saturday, Pakistani officials issued a new defense directive which states that "Any object entering into [Pakistani] air space, including U.S. drones, will be treated as hostile and be shot down."  The Pakistan Army has consequently started to issue its border troops with shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) in an attempt to bolster border security.[2]

• On Thursday, the Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventative Action released its 2012 “Preventative Priorities Survey” which listed Pakistan as a direct threat to the “U.S. homeland” for its potential to ignite a “U.S.-Pakistan military confrontation, triggered by a terror attack or U.S. counterterror operations,” and for its “severe internal instability…[that could be] triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attacks.”[3]

TTP Peace Talks

• On Saturday, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) “Deputy Commander” Maulvi Faqir Mohammad told Reuters that the TTP and Pakistani government were engaging in talks that could result in a peace agreement in Bajaur agency.  Mohammad cited Bajaur as a model for future success, saying, "If negotiations succeed and we are able to sign a peace agreement in Bajaur, then the government and the Taliban of other areas such as Swat, Mohmand, Orakzai and South Waziristan tribal region will sign an agreement.” Mohammad also noted that 145 TTP fighters had been freed by the Pakistani government as a goodwill gesture.  The BBC speculates that the highly fractured nature of the TTP will render any lengthy unified ceasefire unlikely.[4]

• On Sunday, TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan rejected Mohammad’s announcement and emphasized that the TTP would not pursue negotiations until an Islamic law was imposed in Pakistan.  According to Ehsan, “Talks by a handful of people with the government cannot be deemed as the Taliban talking.” Ehsan also indicated that Mullah Dadullah, not Mohammad, heads TTP operations in Bajaur.  The Associated Press interprets Ehsan’s comments as reflecting divisions within TTP, which security officials estimate is now comprised of over 100 smaller factions. Prime Minister Gilani and Interior Minister Rehman Malik both denied government talks with the TTP on Monday. Gilani insisted that disarmament and surrender were prerequisites of peace negotiations.[5]

LeJ Afghanistan Attack

• On Saturday, the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker expressed doubt that a new Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) “splinter group,” the Afghanistan-based Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al Almi, had carried out last week’s Ashura attacks in Afghanistan that killed at least 80 people, as reports surfaced that the bombings were the work of an “Afghan wing” of the Pakistan-based terrorist group.  Ali Sher-e-Khuda, the leader of the “relatively new” anti-Shia militant group called Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Afghanistan, told the BBC that the group “operated on both sides of the [Afghanistan-Pakistan] border” and claimed that the attacks were in retaliation for “criminal behavior” by Shias in Afghanistan.[6]

Pakistani Politics

• On Monday, Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar chaired a meeting of fifteen Pakistani ambassadors to “key world capitals” in an effort to “review Pakistan’s strategy in the war on terror and cooperation with [the U.S.].”[7]

• Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) members of the Punjab Provincial Assembly approved a resolution that will grant South Punjab its own provincial status. The resolution will be presented to the Punjab Assembly on Monday.[8]

• On Monday, the leader of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Istaqlal party, retired Air Marshall Asghar Khan, announced that he would be “stepping down” as party chief and would entrust Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf party leader, Imran Khan with all of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Istaqlal’s future affairs.  Later, PTI party leaders proclaimed that Pakistan’s former Federal Minister, Jahangir Tareen, would also “soon join” PTI. Meanwhile, meetings between PTI party leader, Imran Khan, and the U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter suggested that Khan would feel “comfortable working with the U.S. on all issues, including the war on terror, since both countries have strong mutual interests.”[9]

Zardari’s Health

• On Sunday, Prime Minister Gilani told BBC that President Asif Ali Zardari would remain in an American hospital in Dubai for another two weeks of “rest” before returning to Pakistan.  President Zardari has been in Dubai for over a week, after suffering from a likely transient ischemic attack (TIA) last Monday, which has fueled speculation that his departure may have been part of a “soft coup” attempt by Pakistan’s military establishment.[11]

Memogate

• Pakistan’s Supreme Court hearing on the “memogate” scandal, prompted by Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) chief  Nawaz Sharif, is set to begin on December 19, and President Zardari is expected to submit his reply to the inquiry, despite his absence from the country.  Meanwhile, on Friday, former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. Hussain Haqqani challenged the Supreme Court’s decision to place him on the Exit Control List (ECL), arguing that the decision was “influenced by…media hype” and “ulterior motives.”[12]

Abbottabad Commission

• On Monday, the Abbottabad Commission subpoenaed Pakistani High Commissioner to the United Kingdom Wajid Shamsul Hasan in its probe of the May 2 U.S. Special Operations Forces raid that killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.  Hasan is expected to testify on his earlier statement that senior Pakistani military and civilian leaders had advance knowledge of the raid.  The commission is expected to release its report by the end of December.  Hasan informed Dawn that he had not been summoned by the commission and said that any such request must be submitted through the Foreign Office.[13]

FATA

• Military and civilian leadership from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa will brief members of the National Assembly of human rights violations in Parachinar, Kurram agency on Monday.  The briefing will specifically focus on the high levels of violence along the Thall-Parachinar road which has continued despite formal truces between militants and tribal leaders in the area.[14]

North Korea Bribe

• On Sunday, former Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) General Ziauddin Khawaja revealed that he had received an attempted bribe from North Korea’s Defense attaché to Pakistan, General Kang, in 1995. Kang provided Khawaja with $500,000 in an attempt to foster greater “defense cooperation” between the two countries at a time when both nations were pursuing nuclear programs.  Khawaja informed his superiors of the attempted bribe and was ordered to return the money to Kang in the presence of Pakistani Chief of Military Intelligence Major General Ali Kuli Khan a few days later.[15]

Karachi Violence

• A man was killed by a small explosion in the vicinity of Karachi University on Saturday. The blast came just a day after a similar explosion in the same neighborhood killed three Pakistani Rangers.[16]