Pakistan Security Brief - June 5, 2012

U.S. drone strike reportedly kills al Qaeda’s second-in-command; Pakistani Foreign Ministry condemns drone strikes; NATO Secretary General concludes agreements with Central Asian countries to bypass Pakistani supply routes; U.S. Senator calls for suspension of all aid to Pakistan in retribution for Afridi sentencing; U.S. Defense Secretary Urges stronger India role in Afghanistan; Twenty militants killed near Salala; MQM activists targeted in Karachi killings; Pakistan successfully tests cruise missile; Iran offers to finance Iran-Pakistai pipeline project; EU foreign minister meets with Pakistani officials to discuss NATO supply routes.

Drone Strikes and Death of Top Al Qaeda Leader

• According to reports on Monday, U.S. officials confirmed that Abu Yahya al Libi, reportedly al Qaeda’s second-in-command behind Ayman al-Zawahri, was the primary target of a drone strike near Mir Ali, North Waziristan that killed up to 16 suspected militants early on Monday. While no concrete evidence had emerged to confirm the Libi’s death as of Monday night, tribal sources in Mir Ali said the deputy commander was either killed or wounded in the strike that targeted a compound in the small village of Hassu Khel where U.S. officials believed the militant leader was hiding. A Pakistani intelligence official, speaking to Reuters, said authorities intercepted a telephone conversation between militants in which they talked about the death of a “sheikh,” a title which authorities believed described al Libi, whose real name is Mohamed Hassan Qaid. The official added that intelligence revealed that a seriously wounded al Libi was transported via truck to a private hospital, where he died. A resident of the Mir Ali area, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he believed al Libi had been living in the compound since moving there to recover from light wounds suffered in a previous drone strike on May 28. A militant commander in North Waziristan, however, denied reports of al Libi’s death and mentioned that the U.S. had falsely pronounced al-Libi dead as recently as 2009, saying “this is not the first time claims have been made about his death.”[1]

• Responding to questions about a rise in U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, the Spokesman of the Foreign Ministry said that Pakistan “strongly condemns these attacks.” The Pakistani Spokesman further added that U.S. drone strikes are “a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and are in contravention of international law.” Following the discovery that a U.S. drone strike may have killed a senior al Qaeda leader in North Waziristan yesterday, the Foreign Ministry on Tuesday summoned the U.S. charge d’affaires to “convey serious concerns over drone strikes.”[2]

NATO Supply Route

• In an interview at the U.S.- Islamic World Forum that was published on Monday, Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said the U.S. must apologize for the November air attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers if negotiations over reopening NATO supply routes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border are to continue. The Foreign Minister said Pakistani lawmakers approved the demand calling for a U.S. apology, which Khar describes as “something which should have been forthcoming the day this incident happened.”  U.S. and allied troops have been forced to utilize more expensive northern routes through Russia and Central Asia since Pakistan closed the NATO supply routes six months ago.[3]

• NATO on Monday concluded agreements with Central Asian countries allowing allied forces to transport vehicles and other military equipment out of Afghanistan through the Northern Distribution Network, completely bypassing Pakistan. The deal indicates that preparations are being made for a possible scenario where Pakistan does not reopen southern supply lines at all. The agreements – with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan— will decrease NATO’s reliance on transporting supplies through Central Asia’s Salang Pass, where deteriorating conditions have lengthened what should be short one-day journeys into up to ten days. Speaking to reporters about the agreements, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said “these agreements will give us a range of new options and the robust and flexible transport network we need.” Russia, where NATO already has an agreement in place to transport military supplies through the Northern Distribution Network, has proposed allowing NATO forces to further bypass Pakistan by utilizing a logistics facility in Ulyanovsk, Russia to transport troops and cargo leaving Afghanistan.[4]

U.S.-Pakistani Relations

• Pakistani police intercepted a vehicle carrying three U.S. diplomats at what reports describe as being a routine checkpoint in Peshawar. After the U.S. diplomats refused to allow the vehicle to be searched, the police officers conducted the inspection anyways, discovering several rifles, pistols, and ammunition concealed within the vehicle.  Officers arrested three Pakistani nationals also in the vehicle and held the U.S. diplomats for brief questioning. According to a U.S. embassy official, “these officials were returning from a visit to Malakand University where they were preparing for an English education event for underprivileged children.”[5]

• On Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and national security advisor Shiv Shankar Menon to urge a stronger role for India in Afghanistan. While India has thus far largely restricted its involvement in Afghanistan to economic development and reconstruction, tensions with Pakistan have led U.S. officials to encourage India to have a greater role in Afghanistan, specifically through helping to train the Afghan army and police. Though Pakistan may view an increased role of India in Afghanistan as a threat, Senior defense officials travelling with Panetta emphasized the cooperative role the historical adversaries could have in helping to stabilize Afghanistan.[6]

• U.S. Senator Rand Paul, a Republican from Kentucky, introduced a bill calling for the suspension of all aid to Pakistan unless Pakistan overturns the 33-year prison sentence of Shakil Afridi, the doctor who helped the CIA locate Osama bin Laden. The bill, introduced to the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, would require Pakistan to overturn the ruling of the tribal court that sentenced Afridi before aid would be resumed. The bill also contains a provision that states Dr. Afridi should be granted U.S. citizenship for his efforts in leading the U.S. to the location of Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound.[7]

Militancy

• Pakistani security personnel at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border killed twenty militants on Monday during an exchange of gunfire at a checkpost in Salala, near the location where an American air attack killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in November 2011. The heavily armed militants killed four security personnel during the attack.[8] 

• On Tuesday, a series of shootings in Karachi resulted in the deaths of six people. Officials recovered the body of one man who had been tortured and shot dead on Mauripur Road. One person was killed when an unidentified gunman opened fire on a shop while officials also found a woman’s beheaded body in Karachi’s Surjani Town area. Officials found the body of a police officer who had been shot four times in PIB colony while unidentified gunmen injured two police officers when they opened fire in Kharadar area. Unidentified gunmen also killed one man in Baldia Town[9]   

• Up to ten Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) workers were killed and five injured in a series of “targeted killings” in Karachi over the past two days. Between ten and 15 unidentified gunmen on motorcycles attacked MQM workers in the Paan Mandi area on Sunday night, killing a party activist and wounding three others.  The gunmen then killed one and injured three after opening fire on MQM workers in Kharadar and Dhobi Ghat. The assailants then killed two and injured one in attacks on MQM activists in the Paper Market area of Kharadar and in Chakiwara. Assailants killed five more people connected to the MQM in a series of shootings across Orangi Town, Nisar Shaheed Park, Ferozabad, Soldier Bazaar, and Sohrab Goth. A Sindh police official, speaking to Express Tribune, said the incidents of “targeted killings” reflected “political tensions between the MQM and the banned Peoples Amn Committee.”[10]

• One man was killed and seven were injured on Monday when a remote controlled explosive device detonated at a bank in Chitkan bazaar in Panjgur district, (name province). A police officer responding to the scene said the unknown attackers appeared to have been targeting “security personnel who were inside the bank.”[11]

• Lashkar-e-Islam militants killed three people, including and a married couple in the Tirah valley of Khyber Agency for allegedly having “illicit relations.”[12]

Pakistani Military

• On Tuesday, Pakistan conducted a successful test flight of the Hatf-VII cruise missile, also known as Babur. The nuclear-capable cruise missile, according to Pakistani military officials has a range of about 435 miles, providing Pakistan with a seaborne nuclear strike capability. Mansoor Ahmed, an Islamabad-based defense analyst speaking to New York Times about the successful cruise missile test, said “this is signaling to India that if you are modernizing your weaponry, then we are also not lagging behind.”[13]  

• Major General Asim Saleem Bajwa on Monday became the Director General (DG) of the army’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) after Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani named Bajwa as the successor to DG ISPR Major General Athar Abbas in early April. Bajwa is assuming the position of DG ISPR after commanding an anti-tank battalion, an infantry brigade group, and a strike infantry division in addition to being the Brigade Major of an infantry brigade and Chief of Staff of a strike corps.[14]

International Relations

• Iran is offering $250 million to Pakistani government for the financing of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project that could supply 750 million cubic feet of gas per day to a country struggling with an energy shortage. Iran has offered to provide Pakistan with oil on a 90-day deferred payment basis to supplement the financing proposal. While Pakistan has pitched investment proposals to both China and Russia for financing the proposed $500 million IP gas pipeline, U.S. pressure forced investors in the two countries to withdraw from negotiations. The U.S. has also pressured Pakistan by warning of sanctions should the project commence. A Pakistani official associated with the project expressed caution, noting that “Iran is ready to provide oil on a three-month deferred payment facility but it should be forward looking, otherwise the disparity between rupee and dollar could hurt us.” Pakistani and Iranian officials plan to finalize the modalities of the project during future talks in Islamabad.[15]     

• EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton arrived to Islamabad on Monday for the beginning of a “strategic dialogue” that will strengthen “collaboration [between the two countries] in many areas, including judicial reform, strengthening the democratic institutions, promoting regional stability, and tackling extremism and terrorism,” according to a statement posted on the EU’s website. Ashton is expected to meet with Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, and Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Waheed Arshad to discuss issues most likely related to Pakistan’s repeated suspension of NATO supply routes.[16]