Pakistan Security Brief - June 13, 2012

Militant websites post video of al Qaeda’s second-in-command; U.S. and Pakistani officials holding secret talks over counterterrorism cooperation; President Zardari calls for U.S. and Pakistan to bridge trust deficit; U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta’s comments in Kabul derail talks over reopening NATO supply lines; Pakistani Foreign Minister says transit fees are not the cause behind impasse over supply route negotiations; Senior U.S. government official says Pakistan should ‘bite the bullet’; NATO Secretary-General hopes for supply routes agreement in ‘not too distant future’; Russian energy giant offers bid on IP gas pipeline; Pakistani Supreme Court orders Husain Haqqani to appear at hearing; Pakistani cleric declares jihad on polio campaign; Gunmen kill local PML-N leader.

Drone Strikes and the Death of Top al Qaeda Leader

• On Tuesday, a militant website posted a video message from al Qaeda’s deputy leader Abu Yahya al Libi, who the U.S. confirmed killed in a drone strike on June 4th. Though it is unclear when the footage was recorded, the video lists a production date of “Hirji year 1433,” implying that As Sahab, al Qaeda’s media arm, produced the video sometime after November 2011. Libi’s speech encouraged al Qaeda militants to join the Syrian rebels in fighting against President Bashar al Assad. The popular uprising against the Assad regime in Syria began in March 2011, long before the U.S. confirmed Libi killed by a drone strike in South Waziristan. According to SITE Monitoring Service, the video also included “may Allah protect him” after Libi’s name, indicating that the deputy leader may have still been alive when the video was produced. Neither al Qaeda nor al Fajr Media Center, the group’s online propaganda arm, have confirmed nor denied the death of the deputy leader.[1] 

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• U.S. and Pakistani officials have held secret preliminary talks over the past few months on a new counterterrorism partnership. U.S. officials participating in the talks say they are intended to provide Pakistani counterparts with a larger role in U.S. counterterrorism operations against Pakistan-based militants.  U.S. officials have raised the possibility of conducting a joint military campaign against militants— run out of Pakistani military headquarters in Rawalpindi or out of one of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border patrol posts— that would utilize both U.S. drones and Pakistan’s fleet of F-16s. The secret negotiations have reportedly been derailed, however, by the U.S.’s refusal to issue an apology for the November 2011 Salala checkpost incident. Last month Pakistan’s head of the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate Lt. Gen. Zaheerul Islam’s postponed a meeting to discuss counterterrorism cooperation in Washington. U.S. officials claim the talks are also complicated by disagreements over whether groups such as the Haqaani network—a group U.S. officials say has strong ties with the ISI—will be targeted in the operations.[2]

• President Zardari, speaking in Islamabad on Tuesday, called for the U.S. and Pakistan to work closely to bridge the trust deficit between the two countries and build a sustainable, enduring relationship. Speaking to a U.S. delegation consisting of several congressional members, U.S. Ambassador Cameron Munter, and several other U.S. officials, President Zardari emphasized that drone strikes were counterproductive in the war against terror and that the aggressive campaign only further deteriorated the relationship between the two countries. President Zardari also urged the U.S. to formally apologize for the NATO air attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at the Salala checkpost in November 2011.[3]

• U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Tuesday blocked Senator Rand Paul from attaching an amendment that would withhold aid to Pakistan to a farm bill that is currently on the floor of the U.S. Senate. Senator Paul’s amendment proposal would cut all U.S. aid to Pakistan until the country renounced the 33-year prison sentence of Shakil Afridi, the doctor who helped the CIA locate Osama bin Laden. Senate Majority Leader Reid said “the farm bill is not the place for dealing with Pakistan.”[4]

NATO Supply Routes

• Comments made by U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in Kabul last week about Pakistan’s failure to root militants in its tribal area appear to have stalled talks over reopening NATO supply lines into Afghanistan. According to officials on both sides of the talks, the U.S. and Pakistan had nearly concluded a deal to reopen the transit routes when Leon Panetta said the U.S. was “reaching the limits of [its] patience” over Pakistan’s allowing militants in its tribal areas to mount cross-border attacks on U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. Following the Defense Secretary’s statements, the office of Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani rejected a meeting with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Lavoy and the U.S. was forced to bring home its negotiating team.[5]

• Speaking to reporters in Islamabad on Tuesday, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar rejected the media account that negotiations with the U.S. over reopening NATO supply routes to Afghanistan are being stalled by Pakistan’s demands for higher transit fees. Referring to the stalled negotiations, Khar said “Pakistan is not in any sort of price-gouging debate right now. So these impressions are indeed incorrect, wrong and must be dispersed as soon as possible.”[6]

• Speaking on the condition of anonymity on Tuesday, a senior U.S. government official said the Pakistan government should “bite the bullet and make the political decision to open the ground lines of communication.” Though the official said that reopening the supply routes would not completely salvage the troubled U.S.-Pakistan relationship, the official emphasized the need to focus on longer-term interests related to counterterrorism and stabilizing Afghanistan. These statements come as Department of Defense Press Secretary George Little told reporters that negotiations with Pakistan have not been completely halted. Despite the Pentagon withdrawing negotiators from Pakistan on Monday, the U.S. is continuing to negotiate with Pakistan through the Office of Defense Representative (ODRP) in Islamabad, according to Little.[7] 

• Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra, Australia on Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said despite concluding agreements with several Central Asian states last week, NATO hoped to conclude an agreement with Pakistan to reopen transport supply routes to Afghanistan “in a not too distant future.” Rassmussen emphasized the difficulties in withdrawing troops and military equipment from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and the need for “as many transit opportunities as possible.”[8]

International Relations

• Pakistan and Afghanistan will meet on Thursday for a one-day conference in Kabul alongside 29 other countries to discuss the future of Afghanistan after NATO troops leave in 2014. Afghanistan is expected to pressure Pakistan to take more significant action against militant safe havens near the Afghan border. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has emphasized that Pakistani action is key in eliminating the ability of militant groups to wage violence in Afghanistan. Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, who will be in attendance at Thursday’s conference, has repeatedly emphasized that Pakistan is doing “everything in its power” to root out terrorism and extremism near the Afghanistan border.[9]

• Stroyprogress Group and GBP Global Resources, subsidiaries of Gazprom Bank of Russia, are offering to jointly provide engineering, procurement, and construction services to assist in financing the $1.5 billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline should Pakistan award the energy company the contract. Both China and Iran have also expressed an interest in bidding for construction of the IP gas pipeline, which will transmit 750 million cubic feet per day to one billion cubic feet per day of high-pressure gas from the off-take point near Gawadar to Nawabshah. The details of the proposal will become clearer during Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari’s three-day visit to Russia starting on June 19.[10]

Memogate and Domestic Politics

• The Pakistani Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered former Ambassador Husain Haqqani to appear at a hearing before the court within the next two weeks. The court’s order followed a judicial commission report linking Haqqani to a secret memo requesting U.S. help to prevent an alleged Pakistani military coup. The commission report stated Haqqani should not have asked a “foreign government to, with impunity, meddle in and run our affairs.” Haqqani had agreed in January to a court order that permitted him to leave the country so long as he returned when summoned by the court. On Tuesday, Member of the National Assembly Khawaja Muhammad Asif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) called on the court to try Haqqani for treason for “subverting the constitution.”[11]

• Pakistan is planning to open at least two more border crossing points with Iran and Afghanistan in Balochistan in an effort to increase cross-border trade and enhance the industrial and agricultural sectors of the region. The development, the conclusion of a meeting last month that included Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gilani, COAS Gen. Kayani and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Lt. Gen. Zaheerul Islam, is meant to address a breakdown of law and order in Balochistan that has made the region ripe for militancy, sectarian violence, and a separatist insurgency. According to an official speaking to Express Tribune on the condition of anonymity, the new international border crossings will most likely be established somewhere between Jeewani and Lasbella, with an additional point possibly being established in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.[12]

Militancy

• Separate incidents of violence in Karachi left three civilians dead on Tuesday. The body of a Kachchi Rabita Council activist who was kidnapped and shot was found near the Kharadar area. While his body was being transferred to Agra Taj Colony, unidentified gunmen opened fire in nearby areas, killing a civilian in the Baghdadi area. In a separate incident, one person was shot dead near Korangi police station by unidentified assailants.[13]

• On Wednesday, unknown gunmen ambushed and killed PML-N local leader Afzal Khan in Swat district’s Kanju area.[14] 

• On Tuesday, Pakistani security forces killed an alleged militant in Orakzai agency’s Dabori area after he attempted to run from security forces.[15]      

• A local cleric in Muzaffargarh district declared a polio campaign in Khan Pur Bagga Sher area “un-Islamic,” calling it a “western conspiracy” to render the population impotent. Though the local polio team was forced to postpone immunizations after the cleric called jihad “the only option,” the team later returned to conduct the immunizations after a police raid captured the cleric.[16]