Pakistan Security Brief - June 18, 2012

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to meet Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar on sidelines of UN Summit; Pakistan considering U.S. soft apology; Pakistan and India meet to discuss Sir Creek; Taliban commends Indian refrain from greater involvement in Afghanistan; President Zardari to meet Russian President Putin in St. Petersburg; Pakistan required to implement international conventions for EU GPS+ status; Pakistani Taliban commander bans polio vaccinations in North Waziristan; 25 killed in Khyber blast; IED kills five students in Quetta; 500 additional police deployed to Karachi; President Zardari exonerated in ‘memogate’ case.

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• According to official sources, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar are expected to meet on the sidelines of the United Nations sustainability conference in Rio de Janeiro from June 20-22. The two leaders will likely discuss issues related to a possible U.S. apology over the Salala border incident and the reopening of NATO supply routes. Although the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials claimed no such meeting was officially scheduled so far, they noted that they “never said that a meeting between them is ruled out.”[1]

NATO Supply Lines

• According to diplomatic sources, the U.S. government has offered Pakistan a “soft low level apology” for the Salala border incident that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in November. President Asif Ali Zardari summoned the Pakistani Defence Committee of the Cabinet to address the offer.[2]

• Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) leader Syed Munawar Hasan said reopening NATO supply lines in exchange for a U.S. “soft apology” would be “the height of foolishness” and akin to “surrendering the country’s sovereignty.” Hasan said an uprising of “patriotic forces in the country” would be necessary to oust President Zardari from power if the government reopened the routes.[3] 

India-Pakistan Relations

• Pakistani and Indian officials are meeting in New Delhi to begin two-day peace talks over Sir Creek, a disputed maritime inlet dividing the Kutch region of the Indian state of Gujarat from Sindh province in Pakistan. The delegations, led by Rear Admiral Farrukh Ahmed on the Pakistani side and Surveyor General of India S. Subba Rao on the Indian side, are meeting one week after the two countries failed to reach an agreement over the disputed Siachen glacier. According to Defense Minister Naveed Qamar, negotiations over a withdrawal of troops from Siachen are ongoing between Pakistan and India.[4]

• In a statement posted on the group’s English website on Sunday, the Afghan Taliban commended India for rejecting U.S. calls for greater involvement in Afghanistan. Though small groups of Afghan army officers often come to military institutions in the country, India has avoided a more active role in Afghanistan, prompting the Taliban to deem U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s recent calls for enhanced Indian action in Afghanistan a failure. The website statement also claimed that the Taliban would not use bases in Afghanistan to carry out attacks on another country. The Taliban praise comes as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert Blake said this week that a recently announced trilateral forum between the U.S., India, and Afghanistan is “not directed against Pakistan.” According to Blake, the agreement aims to bring greater stability and economic development to Afghanistan, rather than “squeeze Pakistan from both ends” as some officials have attributed.[5]

International Relations

• President Asif Ali Zardari will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) being held in St. Petersburg, Russia from June 20-22. At the summit, President Zardari will present Pakistan’s view of a global economic market for the 21st century and participate in panels dealing with energy security, financial regulation, and the global financial crisis.[6]

• United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) representative for Pakistan Neil Wright, on Monday, announced a new strategy to repatriate 150,000 Afghan refugees from Pakistan. According to Wright, the new strategy will supplement Pakistan’s four existing Voluntary Repatriation Centers (VRCs) with assistance from host countries and the international community and measures “aimed at supporting refugees.” Wright also added that the program was completely voluntary and that only refugees who desire to return will receive UNHCR assistance.[7]

• The EU Parliament voted on Friday to reconstruct its Generalized System of Preferences Plus (GPS+) scheme to allow countries where per capita income has exceeded $4,000 for four years to apply for zero duty access to EU exports. Though Pakistan meets the per capita income prerequisites, to qualify for the new GPS+ preferences, Pakistan will be required to implement 27 international conventions on human and labor rights, environment, and good governance. Should Pakistan fail to implement the relevant international conventions, Pakistan may be temporarily or permanently ousted from the arrangement.[8]

Militancy

• Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a Pakistani Taliban commander, banned polio vaccinations in North Waziristan in retaliation for U.S. drone strikes and a fear that the CIA could use the vaccination campaign for purposes similar to those employed by Shakil Afridi, the doctor who helped the CIA locate Osama bin Laden. According to a statement released by Bahadur, the shura-e-mujahedeen – a council comprising Taliban, al Qaeda, and Punjabi extremists – made the decision to ban vaccinations until U.S. drone strikes ceased in North Waziristan. The statement, issued in a pamphlet distributed in markets in North Waziristan on Saturday, stressed the belief that “spies could enter the region under the cover of vaccination teams,” prompting the Taliban commander to ban polio vaccinations in the region “until the drone strikes are stopped.” The ban will likely cancel a campaign that was scheduled to vaccinate 161,000 children under the age of five starting Wednesday. Though no drone strikes have been reported since the statement, security forces in North Waziristan killed seven suspected militants in a series of air strikes in Miram Shah on Sunday.[9]                             

• 25 people were killed and 60 were injured when a parked explosives-laden vehicle blew up in a crowded market in the town of Landi Kotal in Khyber region near the Afghan border. Though no group has claimed credit for the attack, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan phoned reporters from an unknown place to deny any links to the incident. Arshad Khan, a local administration official, said the attack may have been aimed at members of Zakha Khel tribe, a group that opposes a local warlord connected to Lashkar-e-Islam.[10]

• Seven police officials were killed and up to ten injured in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on Saturday when a remote-control bomb concealed in a pushcart detonated during a routine patrol near the Nahar Lari Adday area of Kohat. TTP later claimed credit for the attack.[11]

• An improvised-explosive device (IED) planted underneath a parked car exploded near a university bus in Quetta on Monday, killing five students and wounding 53 others. The bomb detonated near the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) office on Samungli Road as the bus was transporting students to Balochistan University of Information Technology, according to local police.[12]

• Recurring violence in Karachi that resulted in the death of 17 people over the weekend prompted Inspector General of Police Mushtaq Ahmed Shah, at a meeting held Sunday night, to announce the deployment of 500 additional policemen to Karachi and the installation of 1,000 surveillance cameras at various locations throughout the area. Acting Additional Inspector General (AIG) Ghulam Shabbir Shaikh also issued “shoot on sight” orders in Karachi after a series of killings resulted in the death of six people, including an Awami National Party (ANP) worker, in the areas of Baldia town, Gulistan-e-Jauhar, Gadap town, Old Haji Camp area, and Lyari over the weekend. Police also arrested four suspects implicated in the death of a civilian in Keamari’s Gulshan-i-Sikanderabad area and two suspects in connection to the death of a six-year-old boy in Jamshed Quarters area. Unidentified gunmen in Lyari killied two civilians and injured a police officer while assailants on a motorcycle killed one and injured five in front of Aziz Bhatti Police Station.[13]

Memogate

• On Friday the “memogate” commission exonerated President Zardari from any involvement in the scandal. The commission rejected Mansoor Ijaz’s accusation that President Zardari authorized the memo that former ambassador to the U.S. Hussain Haqqani was accused of writing to U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen.[14]