Pakistan Security Brief - July 16, 2012

Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman says Pakistan and U.S. set to sign memorandum of understanding; Protestors march against supply route reopening; Pakistan proposes alternative to U.S. drone strikes; Pakistan sovereign credit rating downgraded; Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf Chairman says Supreme Court likely to strike down contempt bill; Justice Fakharuddin G. Ebrahim appointed new Pakistani Chief Election Commissioner; Pakistan calls India’s claims of Pakistani state involvement in Mumbai attacks “unbelievable;” UAE oil pipeline to transport fuel to Pakistan bypassing Strait of Hormuz; TTP militants attack police station in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa; Explosive device in Peshawar destroys hotel; Punjab government announces security operations.

NATO Supply Routes

• On Sunday, a spokesman for Pakistan’s Foreign Office, Moazzam Ahmed Khan, said that Pakistan and the U.S. are set to sign a document that will formalize the reopening of NATO supply routes to Afghanistan. Speaking to the Voice of America, Khan said that technical-level discussions between the two countries are underway, but the Pakistani government must negotiate with political parties and other stakeholders before signing any memorandum of understanding (MoU).[1]

• Starting on Saturday, Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC) members marched from Quetta to Chaman to protest the government’s decision to reopen NATO supply lines to Afghanistan. Headed by Maulana Samiul Haq, the protesters also stopped at Pir Ali Zai forest, Mir Zai base, and Fort Abdullah on their way to Chaman. According to Haq, the long march is also being staged in response to corruption and the increase in power outages throughout the country. DPC members also plan to hold marches from Karachi to Hyderabad, Multan to Dera Ghazi Khan, Sargodha to Mianwali, Peshawar to the Khyber Pass, Rawalpindi to Chakwal Talagang, Faisalabad to Sargodha, and Khushab to Islamabad.[2]

• On Monday, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman called the Pakistani government’s decision to reopen NATO supply lines to Afghanistan a “mockery of the parliamentary resolution” on U.S.-Pakistan relations. Speaking to a grand tribal jirga organized by his party, Rehman ridiculed the Pakistani government for reopening the Ground Lines of Communications (GLOCs) without a written agreement dealing with a reasonable strategy for mending the damaged ties between the U.S. and Pakistan. The JUI chief also urged the government to disallow U.S. drone strikes and halt military operations in FATA.[3]

Drone Strikes

• According to CNN National Security analyst Peter Bergen, the number of civilian deaths resulting from U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan has declined dramatically since 2008. Based on New America Foundation numbers, the estimated civilian death rate is “at or near zero” today with roughly 10-12 percent of all deaths due to drone strikes occurring during the Obama Administration being civilian. Bergen attributes the drop to new guidelines by the Obama Administration increasing CIA selectivity when choosing targets, the CIA’s use of smaller munitions for “pinpoint strikes,” and greater oversight by Congress via monthly meetings involving the CIA and the House and Senate Intelligence Committees.[4] 

• According to a senior figure of Pakistan’s security establishment, Pakistan has proposed a plan involving CIA surveillance in the tribal areas and swapping of information with the Pakistani security agencies as an alternative to drone strikes.  Rather than the CIA then targeting the wanted militants with drone strikes, Pakistani security forces would deal with the militants on the ground. The U.S., however, would still be allowed to use drones for surveillance purposes under the proposal, according to officials familiar with the alternative proposal. The senior official noted that “the US can use any mechanism to monitor our operation on the ground,” but clarified that the U.S. would not be allowed to conduct ground operations to root out militants in the tribal region.[5]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• Speaking to reporters in Islamabad on Monday, Pakistani Defense Secretary Nargis Sethi said Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani will visit Washington for the U.S.-Pakistan strategic dialogue soon, though an official date has yet to be decided. According to Sethi, Pakistan intends to sign two MoUs with the U.S. regarding the NATO supply routes, a power which lies solely with the ministry of defense. Sethi further added that the strategic dialogue will include discussions over a draft amendment to the Anti-Terrorism Act. According to Geo News, however, military sources are denying that Kayani will travel to the U.S. for the strategic dialogue.[6]

• Referencing the Salala border incident that resulted in the death of 24 Pakistani soldiers in November 2011, U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter said on Sunday that “we should make sure such a tragedy never happens again.” Speaking to The Express News, Munter said that the impasse over reopening the NATO supply routes took too long to resolve, though he noted that “the resumption will help Pakistani soldiers as much as it’ll help U.S. and ISAF soldiers in the common fight against militants.”[7]

Domestic Politics

• On Friday, Moody’s Investor Service downgraded Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating from B3 to Caa1, citing a widening trade deficit and a decline in capital inflows as causes of the decline. According to Moody’s, the risk of default in Pakistan has increased due to a growing deficit, tapering off of remittances from abroad, dwindling foreign exchange reserves, structural inflationary pressures, and domestic uncertainties. Moody’s further added that Pakistan could experience an even further downgrade should the country default on an upcoming repayment of $7.5 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A recent post-evaluation draft report of the $11.3 billion bailout program that the IMF provided to Pakistan stated that the lending agency should not seek any new short-term loan programs with Pakistan due to Islamabad’s failure to implement conditional reforms. According to officials who have read the report, the last lending program failed due to lack of political support, deterioration in security, and the global economic crisis. According to Meekal Ahmad, a former IMF official, the IMF should require Islamabad to take prior actions to qualify for new lending programs in the future.[8]

• On Sunday, Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf Chairman Imran Khan said the Supreme Court is likely to strike down the new “Contempt of Court Bill 2012” that provides public officials immunity from contempt of court charges. Speaking at an Insaaf Students Federation convention, Khan compared the contempt bill to the 2007 National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that the Supreme Court struck down in 2009. The NRO would have granted amnesty to public officials accused of committing crimes between January 1, 1986 and October 12, 1999.[9]

• The Pakistani Parliamentary Committee on appointment of Chief Election Commissioner unanimously approved Justice Fakharuddin G. Ebrahim in a meeting  on Sunday. Justice Ebrahim said he would outline his priorities in a press conference after he takes the official oath of office.[10]

• The apex court, headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, gave Frontier Corps (FC) chief Maj. Gen. Khattak until July 24 to produce eight persons who were allegedly captured by FC paramilitary forces in Balochistan. According to Chief Justice Chaudhry, the FC is being forced to present the missing persons because the force never notified local administration officials about the operations or arrests. The Chief Justice also noted that 14 others have been declared missing after a paramilitary operation in Khuzdar.[11]

International Relations

• Pakistan’s new High Commissioner to India, Salman Bashir, said on Sunday that Pakistan continues to doubt intelligence Indian officials claim they gleaned through interrogation of Sayed Zabiuddin alias Abu Jundal, the Indian national and Lashkar-e-Taiba member allegedly involved in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. Speaking to an Indian TV show, Bashir said that India’s claims that Pakistani state institutions were involved in the Mumbai attacks are “unbelievable” and “incredible.” Though Bashir suggested that Islamabad is unlikely to investigate the role of state actors in the attack, he reiterated Pakistan’s willingness to cooperate with India in a joint investigation of the Mumbai attack.[12]

• On Sunday, Pakistani Prime Minister Ashraf arrived in Saudi Arabia, where he will meet with Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz. The two leaders plan to discuss issues of mutual interest during meetings in Jeddah on Monday.[13]

• On Monday, Mohamed Al Hamli, oil minister for the United Arab Emirates, announced that Abu Dhabi had begun exporting its first crude through a 263-mile pipeline that can transport 1.5 million barrels a day from the neighboring sheikhdom of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman to a refinery in Pakistan. The pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway Iran has threatened to block due to sanctions targeting the country’s nuclear program.[14]

Militancy

• On Monday, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants attacked a police station in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa’s Bannu district. The militants, dressed in burqas, threw hand grenades and opened fire on the police station, initially holding several people, including three policemen, hostage. Subsequently security forces launched a five-hour siege of the building, recovering the hostages and arresting two of the militants. A third militant died following the detonation of his suicide vest, and a fourth militant was killed by police gunfire. According to Reuters, four militants were killed after two militants detonated their suicide vests. Three policemen were wounded.[15]  

• The head of an anti-Taliban militia was killed and his associate injured on Sunday in a remote-controlled explosion in the Takhtaki area of Khyber agency’s Tirah valley. Both men were members of a tribal militia created to defend the area amid fighting between Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and Ansarual Islam (AI) members. No group has claimed responsibility for the blast.[16]      

• On Friday, an explosive device planted at Grace Hotel in Peshawar destroyed part of the hotel. On Sunday, a remote-controlled bomb planted by Taliban militants outside Peshawar’s Hashukhel High School exploded, destroying the school’s outer wall. No casualties were reported in either incident. Meanwhile, a stray mortar hit a house belonging to a Frontier Corps (FC) soldier in Peshawar’s Mera Sheikhan village, injuring the FC soldier and killing his wife and three children.[17] 

• Separate incidents of violence in Balochistan between Friday and Sunday left ten people dead and ten others injured. On Friday, separate groups of gunmen killed four civilians near Quetta’s Samungli Road, Saryab Mill, and Bank Colony. On Saturday, ten civilians were injured in Quetta after gunmen fired on a gathering of people, including Awami National Party (ANP) members, holding a strike in observance of Friday’s bomb blast that killed six people. Elsewhere, unidentified assailants killed two people in the Sabzal Road and Sohraab areas of Quetta. On Sunday, three people, including a Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader, were killed by gunmen in Khuzdar district’s Zehri sub-district, Gwadar’s main bazaar, and Mastung district.[18]    

• According to The Express Tribune, the Punjab government, on Monday, approved a plan to conduct raids into “eight training camps for Baloch insurgents” near the Punjab-Balochistan border. Acting upon information from a confidential intelligence report, Punjab police, aided by other law enforcement agencies, will carry out an operation against secretly-run training facilities called Farari camps in Rajanpur district. According to the intelligence report, Baloch insurgents are holding around 15 people hostage at these Farari camps. The Balochistan government simultaneously announced a plan to carry out operations against criminals in Bolan and Mastung districts, where incidents of kidnapping for ransom and target killings occur frequently.[19]

• On Saturday and Sunday, incidents of violence across Karachi left 19 people dead, while another six people were gunned down on Monday. On Sunday, unknown assailants in Karachi’s Quaidabad area threw an improvised explosive device  at Rangers personnel, injuring four of them. On Monday, the Bomb Disposal Squad defused a bomb carrying 12 kilograms of explosive material placed near the Super Highway in Karachi.[20]

• On Sunday, unidentified gunmen killed a policeman on duty near Lower Dir’s Munda bridge.[21]