Pakistan Security Brief - August 27, 2012

Top Haqqani Network leader, TTP Bajaur chief killed in drone strike; Thousands flee potential North Waziristan operation;  jirga opposes operation; Supreme Court gives Prime Minister more time in Swiss letter case; Prime Minister directs allies to not speak against the judiciary; Saudi Arabia joins in on the Taliban peace talks; U.S., Pakistan close to signing trade deal; India, Pakistani parliamentarians discuss new confidence-building measures; Pakistan wants to cross-examine witnesses in 2008 Mumbai attacks; Iran and Pakistan discuss gas pipeline progress; militants had no inside help on the Kamra air base attack; AQ Khan starts his own political movement; Salarzai anti-Taliban militia created in Bajaur agency; three Shias killed in Quetta; dozens killed in Bajaur fighting.

Top Taliban Leaders Killed

• Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security has confirmed that Badruddin Haqqani, son of Haqqani network founder Jalaluddin Haqqani, was killed by a U.S. drone strike last week. A few days earlier, Pakistan security officials had also claimed they were “90 percent certain Badruddin was killed” by a drone attack in North Waziristan last Tuesday. According to the Combating Terrorism Center, Haqqani is believed to be the operational manager of the Haqqani network who “handles high-profile kidnappings and manages its lucrative smuggling operations.” A Taliban spokesman, however, has rejected claims of Haqqani’s death. [1]

• The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has acknowledged that a U.S. drone strike killed its Bajaur agency chief Mullah Dadullah, along with 12 other militants in Afghanistan. TTP spokesperson Ehsanullah Ehsan, who confirmed Dadullah’s death, stated, “Mullah Dadullah’s death will not dampen our morale and we will avenge his killing.” NATO and Pakistani intelligence officials were the first to confirm Dadullah’s death, which occurred last Friday in the Afghan province of Kunar. [2]

North Waziristan operation

• According to a government official in North Waziristan’s agency headquarters of Miram Shah, thousands of people have fled North Waziristan, fearing of a military offensive against the militants in the area. Mian Iftikhar Hussain, information minister for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, told AFP that thousands of people have reached several districts in his area. Government officials have taken to local radios trying to keep the people calm and denying that any military operation is planned. [3]

• Members of a North Waziristan tribal jirga held in Razmak sub-district on Thursday expressed their intention to oppose any military operation the region. Malik Kamran, a National Assembly member (MNA) from North Waziristan, claimed that an operation would be a lose-lose situation for the Pakistan Army and the local tribes. Separately, tribesmen at a jirga in Mir Ali threatened on Saturday to renounce their Pakistani citizenship and migrate to Afghanistan if the Pakistani government launched an operation inside North Waziristan. Tribal elders accused the government of violating peace deals in the region.[4]

• Interior Minister Rehman Malik warned Taliban on Thursday to surrender their arms otherwise, saying the government was determined to take the campaign against terrorism to its logical conclusion.[5]

Taliban peace talks

• Afghan and Arab diplomats confirmed on Friday that Saudi Arabia has recently held a series of ‘informal talks’ with the Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami (HI) leaders. The list of invitees include Tayyeb Agha, a close confidant of the Taliban leader Mullah Omar, and Naseeruddin Haqqani, the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani. According to an Afghan official, Saudi officials have decided to play a more active role in the reconciliation process after the U.S., Afghanistan, and Pakistan sought assistance in reviving talks with the Taliban. [6]

Domestic Politics

• Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Monday decided to give Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf three more weeks to resolve the re-opening of corruption cases against President Asif Ali Zardari. In court Ashraf claimed that he wanted to “resolve this case in such a way that upholds the dignity of the court and also addresses concerns of the government.” The court wanted immediate assurances the matter would be undertaken, and Justice Asif Khosa went as far as saying that Ashraf did not have to write the letter himself and could nominate someone else to do it. The Prime Minister agreed to appear in court for the next hearing on September 18. [7]

• After his appearance before the Supreme Court on Monday, Prime Minister Raja Pervez directed Governor of Punjab, Federal Ministers and other officials not to make any statements against the judiciary. He warned them to respect the judiciary on TV talk shows. Prime Minister Ashraf’s comments referred to public statements made by members of the ruling party regarding the ongoing case in the Supreme Court that members of the court said could be considered “contemptuous.” [8]

• Despite protests from the PML-N and the Punjab government, the federal government has announced that its first meeting on dividing Punjab into two provinces will take place on August 28. The Punjab assembly has gone as far as saying it could take the matter to court. The Chief Minister of Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif said that “If the division of provinces is inevitable, a uniform policy should be pursued throughout the country.” The PML-N is insisting that the government recognize the demand for the creation of a Hazara province in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa as well. [9]

• Dr Abdul Qadir Khan, known as the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, is all set to launch a nationwide political movement called the Tehrik-e-Tahaffuz Pakistan (TTP), or Movement to Save Pakistan. His emphasis will be on increasing political awareness among Pakistani youths and encouraging them to vote. Khan said his campaign would ask the youth not to vote for traditional parties like Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). He has demonstrated his preference for emerging political parties such as Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). [10]

Militancy

• A Pakistan military operation to flush out Taliban militants from the village of Batwar in Bajaur agency left 36 people dead on Monday. According to an official for the Frontier Corps, 31 militants along with three security personnel and “two members of the peace committee” were among those killed. The operation comes after three straight days of Taliban attacks from Afghanistan into Bajaur that left five soldiers, six tribesmen and 58 militants dead by the end of Sunday.[11]

• In an attempt to combat militant activities in Bajaur agency, a jirga of tribal elders and political officials has decided to revive the Salarzai tribe’s anti-Taliban militia on Sunday. They also decided to establish more checkpoints in Salarazai sub-district of Bajaur agency to control militants’ movement in the area. [12]

• According to a preliminary investigation report on the August 16^th attack on Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) Kamra air base, the attackers had no inside help. [13]

• Militants in Pakistan have posted a video showing the beheading of two Shia men by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). According to SITE intelligence group, the video titled ‘Revenge’ was released on the Jamia Hafsa Urdu forum and then distributed to other forums. [14]

• An information technology expert named Arshad Jamal of the outlawed Islamist group Hizbut Tahrir (HuT) was arrested on Thursday. Jamal was allegedly in violation of “the Anti Terrorism Act, the Pakistan Penal Code and the Pakistan Army Act on charges of hatching a conspiracy against national interests.” According to media reports, he was at a meeting on August 3 where HuT representatives allegedly agreed to step up operations to rebel against the judiciary, government and the army. Jamal was arrested on the charges of printing, publishing and disseminating material to incite hatred. Separately, according to a source in Punjab’s public prosecution department, the Punjab government has filed an appeal in the Lahore High Court against the acquittal of 19 activists of HuT who were arrested by model Town police on March 29. [15]

U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• Pakistan and the U.S. are currently discussing numerous proposals for finding a mutually acceptable solution to the U.S. drone campaign which has strained diplomatic ties between the two countries. Pakistan has previously offered to conduct strikes against high-level targets with its F-16 fighter jets; however, the U.S. has “[shown] little interest” in that option.[16]

• Pakistan and the U.S. are reportedly on the verge of signing a bilateral investment treaty that has been the subject of talks since 2004. The deal is expected to be signed on the sidelines of the upcoming UN General Assembly session in September. The U.S. is the largest investor in Pakistan, and the two countries are working to promote more investment in energy products and trade between them. Board of Investment Chairman Saleem Mandviwalla expressed his hope that a treaty will help establish a Free Trade Agreement between Pakistan and the U.S. [17]

Indo-Pakistan Relations

• Parliamentarians from India and Pakistan discussed several important confidence-building measures for the two countries on Friday. The MPs agreed that India and Pakistan ought to allow each other’s citizens to cross the border in their own vehicles, cease police reporting to minimize undue harassment, lift blockages on shows and entertainment, increase trade in energy-related products, and facilitating religious- and health-related travel between the two countries. [18]

• Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) has sent a request to the Indian government for permission to cross-examine witnesses in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, arguing that those accused of perpetrating the attacks may go free if the request is denied. Defenders of the accused in Pakistan protested that they had not been able to cross-examine witnesses, a move which led a Pakistani anti-terrorism court to dismiss the testimonies of four witnesses. Should the Indian government refuse the FIA’s request, the testimonies recorded earlier may be declared inadmissible.[19]

Iran-Pakistan Relations

• In an effort to expedite the progress being made on the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, a joint working group has been called to discuss the work currently underway. If both sides reach an agreement, Iran will offer material for the project in addition to the $250 million it had previously reserved for the project. [20]

Balochistan Violence

• According to a police official, three Shias were killed in a drive-by shooting in Quetta on Monday. The day before, five people, including two women, were shot and killed during a strike when rebels attacked two buses in Bolan to commemorate the sixth death anniversary of tribal chief Nawab Akbar Bugti. The Balochistan Republican Party (BRP) claimed responsibility for attack.[21]

NGOs

• As a result of “growing security concerns,” the Pakistani government “has decided to strictly regulate the activities of international NGOs” operating in the country.” These regulations would include mandating every NGO to maintain an account book to be audited by a certified chartered accountant. NGOs will also be obligated to reveal where all of their funding comes from, and the government would be allowed to cancel the registration of any NGOs if it decides they are not working in the “public interest.”[22]