Pakistan Security Brief - March 6, 2013

U.S. citizen arrested in terrorism case; Investigators say LeJ Asif Chotoo faction prime suspect in Karachi bombing; Violence  shuts down Karachi; Rangers catch 3 TTP attempted suicide bombers in Karachi; Security forces kill 12 in Orakzai; IED defused in Quetta; Afghan Taliban re-enters negotiations; IED detonated at assembly member’s house; U.S. fighting proxy war against Iran pipeline; IED’s defused in Peshawar; Olson says U.S. and Pakistan committed to pursuing peace in Afghanistan; Musharraf to return by March 17; Curfew imposed in Kashmir; Pakistan likely to need additional $9 billion from the IMF. 

Karachi Bombing

• According to a report published by the News on Wednesday, investigators of the March 3rd Karachi bombing claim to have evidence linking the attack to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). However, investigators believe that LeJ has not yet claimed responsibility for the attack because claiming responsibility for the Quetta attack on February 16 resulted in the arrest of LeJ leader Malik Ishaq. The investigators stated that although there are currently seven al Qaeda- and Taliban- linked LeJ factions operating in Karachi, LeJ’s Asif Chotoo group is the prime suspect in the investigation. Interior Minister Rehman Malik announced on Tuesday that Pakistani security forces have captured four suspects involved in the Karachi bombing.[1]  

Taliban Negotiations

• According to a report by the Daily Beast published on Wednesday, the Afghan Taliban have re-entered negotiations with the U.S. The report states that over the past month, high-ranking Taliban officials have been traveling from Quetta to Qatar, with the approval and assistance of the Pakistani government, to step up a permanent office to facilitate negotiations and receive released prisoners. The report suggests the Taliban delegation, which will participate in the negotiations, may have the endorsement of the Taliban’s Quetta Shura. According to the report, although some Taliban commanders may feel betrayed by the negotiations, Taliban officials announced that they will conduct an extensive propaganda campaign to include all Afghans, the U.S., and the Karzai administration in negotiations.[2]

Rioting in Karachi

• On Tuesday, widespread violence in Karachi shut down businesses, closed transportation, sparked protests and rioting, and killed and wounded dozens of people, after the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) announced they would peacefully protest Sunday’s Karachi bombing.  The Express Tribune reported that over 50 percent of the city closed amidst the chaos.  Markets and businesses closed after unknown men started aerial firing and lighting cars ablaze in Malir, Gulshal-e-Iqbal, Tando Allahyar, Clifton, Mirpurkhaas, and Nawabshah.  Rangers arrested four armed men in the Defense Housing Authority (DHA), Two Rangers went missing on their way home from Nazimabad.  Schools and petroleum stations remain closed through Wednesday.   Responding to the escalating violence and strong opposition from the Karachi business community, Raza Haroon, a MQM lawmaker , told reporters that the MQM was calling off the strike, just hours after it was first announced.[3]

Militancy

• On Wednesday, Rangers recovered a suicide vest, explosives, and weapons when they arrested three Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members, including one suspected suicide bomber, in Shorab Goth, Karachi.[4] 

• Eight people died in targeted killings across Karachi on Tuesday, amidst turmoil from the ongoing disorder and riots.  Unknown attackers shot and killed three men in Shafeeq Mor, Buffer Zone, and Gulistan-e-Juahar.  An MQM member was shot and killed in Malir, and another person died in a firing incident in Landhi.  In Korangi Town, armed men gunned down a man on his way to work.  Police recovered the body of a man shot to death in Malir town, and another killed in Landhi Town.  In two separate incidents, armed men on motorcycles threw grenades at security forces, injuring two in Metroville, and causing no casualties in Mominabad.[5]

• On Wednesday, security forces in Mamuzai, Upper Orakzai, killed eight militants during a search operation.  Another report said forces killed as many as 12 militants, and destroyed at least two hideouts in the operation.  Security forces took control of Targo area, when four of their men and an officer were wounded in the fighting.[6]

• The Bomb Disposal Squad (BDS) in Quetta defused a 40kg improvised explosive device (IED) on Wednesday.  The bomb was planted on a rickshaw on Sariab road near a hospital.[7]

• An IED detonated outside the house of a Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa assembly member in Peshawar on Wednesday, resulting in no casualties or damaged property.[8]

• The BDU in Peshawar successfully defused two IEDs planted in Matani late on Tuesday.[9]

Drone Strikes

• On Tuesday, in a bid to win approval for CIA Director nominee John Brennan, the Obama administration agreed to give congressional lawmakers access to “top-secret legal opinions justifying the use of lethal drone strikes…overseas.” Brennan’s nomination has reportedly been fast-tracked as a result.[10]

U.S.- Pakistan Relations

• On Wednesday, U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olson, while addressing the “US-Nato Exit from Afghanistan: Challenges and Options Beyond 2014” conference held in Islamabad, stated that the U.S. and Pakistan are working together to curb terrorism and bring stability to Afghanistan. Olson stated that a tremendous amount of progress has been made in Afghanistan and expressed his hopes that Afghanistan will be able to maintain its regional stability. Olson also said that the U.S. will not completely disengage from Afghanistan and will continue to work with Afghan leaders to pursue peace and stability. Jalil Abbas Jilani, Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary, also spoke at the conference stating that peace in Afghanistan is particularly important for Pakistan.[11]

Balance of Payment Crisis

• On Wednesday, Reuters published a report in which the Asian Development Bank's country director, Werner Liepach, predicted that Pakistan will have to ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for another $9 billion loan in order to avert a balance of payment crisis, as the current reserves can only support two months of imports. Pakistan currently owes the IMF $6.2 billion in the first six months of 2013.[12]

Pak-Iran Pipeline

• According to analyst Jean Alic, U.S. will be insufficient to prevent the proposed gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran, set to begin construction next week. Alic wrote Tuesday that the U.S. has failed to offer a competitive option to Iran’s daily 21.5 million cubic meters of gas, which he suggests would dramatically ease Pakistan’s energy crisis.  Coupled with Iran’s offer to pay over $500 million of the $1.5 million section in Pakistan, Alic posits that the massive amount of gas is worth more than sanctions. Alic further states that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are supporting Baloch separatists as part of their proxy war against Iran in a bid to increase security risks to the construction of the pipeline.[13]  

Oregon Terrorism Case

• On Tuesday, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agents arrested Reaz Qadir Khan, a U.S. citizen from Oregon. Khan is accused of providing advice and financial assistance to Ali Jaleel, one of three terrorists who carried out a suicide bombing on Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) headquarters in Lahore which killed 30 people and injured another 300.  Khan’s indictment cites several different events in which he provided financial assistance to Jaleel and his family while also providing instructions on avoiding detection. If convicted, Khan faces life in prison.[14]

Kashmir Curfew

• Security forces imposed a curfew in several areas of Srinagar city on Wednesday following the death of a Kashmiri man who was allegedly killed by Indian security forces during a protest on Tuesday,[15]

Domestic Politics

• An Express Tribune report states that Former president Pervez Musharraf will return to Pakistan on March 17. According to the report, the All Pakistan Muslim League (AMPL), Musharraf’s political party, has formed legal teams to file an application for bail on Musharraf’s behalf in the Benazir Bhutto assassination case.[16]