Pakistan Security Brief - April 30, 2013

TTP sends letter claiming success in fighting democracy; TTP claims targeting parties a Taliban shura decision; Karachi attacks point to TTP shift to urban focus; Two MQM activists die in shooting; Independent candidate’s assassination makes ECP postpone district polls; Anti-Musharraf lawyers beaten; Musharraf receives lifetime ban on contesting elections; India warns of nuclear retaliation if attacked; TTP release video of fighting in Afghanistan; Army deploys troops across Balochistan; Family of five die in Karachi; Rangers arrest six in operations; Police officer hurt in shooting; Six die in Karachi violence, Gas pipeline blown up heading to Karachi.

Political Violence

• On Tuesday, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Hakimullah Mehsud sent a letter to the media saying the TTP is successfully hindering elections and “jeopardizing democracy” through its various attacks.  He claimed that politicians’ request for negotiations meant the TTP is succeeding politically, and that they are destroying democracy both through tactical strikes and through “subdu [ing] politicians by making them negotiate.”[1]

• On Monday night, two Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) activists were gunned down during a meeting for upcoming election in Latifabad, Hyderabad, Sindh.[2]

• On Sunday, TTP spokesman Eshsanullah Ehsan said that the group’s targeting of some Pakistani political parties and not others was the decision and prerogative of the TTP’s shura, and was based on which parties were involved in the previous government and in had cooperated in the conduct of military operations against the TTP. He stressed that while the TTP does not support other secular parties, such as the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI), Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam-Fazal (JUI-F), Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), these parties are not primary targets.[3]

• On Tuesday, unknown attackers shot and killed an independent candidate and three of his supporters when they kidnapped them and five other activists in Jhal Magsi, Balochistan.  The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) announced Tuesday it would postpone polls in the district in response.  New election dates will be announced after the May 11th election.[4]

• On Tuesday in Islamabad, unknown assailants kidnapped and assaulted two lawyers involved in the ongoing attorney protests against former President Pervez Musharraf. The men were beaten and later released.[5]

Army Deployment for Elections

• On Monday, in an effort to protect voters leading up to and during the election, the Pakistan Army deployed troops to nine parts of Balochistan, including Kalat, Khuzdar, Kharan, Washuk, Awaran, Mastung, Panjgur, Turbat and Gwadar.  The army is scheduled to deploy troops to the remaining districts of Balochistan on Tuesday, totaling 6,000 soldiers across the province, with the intention of securing polling stations for Election Day in May.[6]

Domestic Politics

• On Tuesday, former President Pervez Musharraf was banned for life from contesting elections in Pakistan by the Peshawar High Court (PHC) because  the court allegedly found with his character relating to specific clauses relating to piety and uprightness in the constitution.[7]

Militancy

• Following an announcement on Friday that the Afghan Taliban was beginning its spring offensive, the TTP released a video of its “Saad bin Abi Waqas Front” fighters attacking ISAF forces in Logar province, Afghanistan.  The video shows both traditional military attacks and suicide bombings, and centers around a pledge to kill “foreign invaders” in Afghanistan, specifically targeting foreign bases, airbases, and diplomatic centers.[8]

• Earlier in April, the TTP released a video on Jamia Hafsa Urdu Forum where the TTP’s leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, showed footage of strikes on Afghan ISAF forces, an execution of an alleged ISAF spy, and a statement where he said that because the TTP and al Qaeda both swore allegance to Mullah Omar, they are closely tied.  He then explains that there is no difference between the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban, and al Qaeda.  He also says that the TTP has been instructed to move “beyond FATA to mainland Pakistan,” in order to create a Taliban emirate in Pakistan.[9]

• On Tuesday, a family of five was gunned down in their house early morning in Defense, Karachi. Separately, Karachi Rangers arrested six people and recovered small arms caches in Shah Faisal Colony, Carnal Basti near Old Sabzi Mandi, Falakh Naz, Gulistan Society, Millat Town and Chanesar Goth.[10]

• On Monday, unknown attackers opened fire next to the Hyderabad Tando Yousuf police station, injuring a police officer and another person.[11]

• On Monday, Karachi police arrested three people in an operation in Surjani Town, and also seized a weapons cache. Elsewhere in the city, six people were killed in various incidents of targeted violence. A police officer was shot to death in Iqbal Market in Orangi Town when motorcyclists shot him and his daughter there. Another man was killed in Golimar when motorcyclists shot and killed the man outside his shop. Separately, a man was shot and killed in Sultanabad, Manghopir, when he was returning home from praying. In another incident, a man was shot to death in Shah Faisal Colony.  Elsewhere, in Korangi, a man was tortured and killed after being kidnapped Sunday night. Korangi police also recovered the body of a man who had been kidnapped and killed.[12]

• According to a McClatchy article on Monday, the increase in violence, especially political violence, from the TTP in Karachi is a signal that the TTP is making a strategic shift from the tribal border regions to “major urban centers.” According to a source the McClatchy report claims is linked to al Qaeda, and who has “close ties with” the TTP, “[the TTP’s] plan is to establish a headquarters in Karachi, and spread [its] network to adjacent cities from there.” The TTP is reportedly gaining power by linking up with criminal networks in Karachi to draw upon local gangs’ resources.[13]

• On Tuesday, unknown men shot and killed the driver for a NATO shipping container in Wazirdand, Jamrud, Khyber agency.  In another incident, an Afghan man was killed on Tuesday, when motorcyclists shot him on his way home in Shahkas area, Jamrud, Khyber agency.[14]

• On Monday, unknown militants blew up a pipeline in Naseerabad cutting off some of the gas supply to Karachi.[15]

Indo-Pak Relations

• On Tuesday, Indian National Security Advisory Board conveyer Shyam Saran said that while India will not initiate nuclear warfare, any nuclear strike from Pakistan will result in nuclear retaliation. He said that nuclear war cannot be limited, and if initiated, would escalate quickly. Saran’s comments come in the wake of recent Pakistani missile tests, and respond to Pakistani efforts to develop smaller, “tactical nuclear warheads.”[16]