Pakistan Security Brief - July 18, 2014

Pakistan not targeting Haqqani Network in North Waziristan operation; Bajaur tribesmen establish local anti-Taliban militia; IED blast in Peshawar kills one policeman and injures three; Karachi police claim 40 groups of the TTP operating in the city; IED targeting Frontier Corps vehicle explodes near Karachi-Quetta highway, injuring two Firefight between security personnel and militants leaves at least eight security personnel dead and three injured at FC checkpoint in Jamrud; Islamabad police arrest four TTP members from Sihala; Security across Pakistan increased for Yaum-e-Ali; UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) will assist with caring for Internally Displaced Peoples; Pakistan condemns cross-border fight with India.

North Waziristan Offensive

• On July 17, the Wall Street Journal reported that many members of the Haqqani Network escaped from North Waziristan prior to the start of operations there through Thal, in neighboring Hangu district, or across the international border into Afghanistan. So far, Pakistani forces have targeted the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Central Asian and Arab militants, but the report alleges that the government is deliberately avoiding targeted the Haqqanis. By not going after the Haqqani Network, Pakistan stands to lose future aid money from the U.S. A spokesman for the Afghan minister of interior, Sediq Seddiqi said that Afghanistan does not believe the North Waziristan operation will have any impact on the Haqqani network or the Afghan Taliban.[1]

• By July 18, approximately one million people have been displaced by the North Waziristan offensive. 80 percent of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) have registered in Bannu while the other 20 percent have spread to Afghanistan and across other parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, such as Dera Ismael Khan, Lakki Marwat, and Kohat.[2]

• On July 18, Dawn reported that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN will provide support for IDPs from North Waziristan.[3]

Jamrud Checkpoint Attack

• More than 12 “heavily armed” militants attacked an FC checkpoint in Jamrud early on July 18, initiating a firefight between security personnel and militants that left at least eight security personnel dead and three injured.  According to Dawn, security forces claimed to have killed a number of militants but could not verify the exact number.  The attack occurred in the Gundi area of Jamrud district, Khyber Agency.  According to The Express Tribune, security personnel failed to identify the attackers but security forces killed four militants and arrested three in the attack.  Senior military officials told Reuters that the militants besieged the checkpoint with rocket-propelled grenades before they overran it and ransacked it.[4]

Bajaur Operation

• On July 17, tribesmen from the Loe Mamund and Warh Mamund tribes of Mamund sub-district, Bajaur Agency, as well as tribal members of local anti-Taliban committees, attended a jirga to establish the Mamund local militia.  The militia will be comprised of at least two family members between the ages of 20 and 55 from every Loe and Warh Mamund household. The jirga decided to set up new posts along the Afghan-Pakistan border and to investigate suspicious activities in the region. After the militia’s formation, volunteers torched nine houses belonging to suspected militants in Kitkoot, Nakhtar, Erab, Ghoati, Zarri, and Ghakhai.[5]

Lahore Operation

• More details have emerged regarding the security forces’ raid on a militant safe house outside Lahore early on July 17. Security forces have determined that the militants engaged in the raid were between 20- and 25-years-old and were members of the “‘Tafseeri Group,’ a little known Islamist group.” One of the militants has been identified as Ahsan Mehboob, who reportedly has links to al Qaeda. The militants were allegedly planning an attack on Nawaz Sharif’s residence.[6]

Militancy

• At 4 am on July 18, an improvised explosive device (IED) killed one policeman and injured three when it exploded near a police van in the Yakatoot area of Peshawar. The News reported that the blast took place in the Wazir Bagh area of Peshawar.[7]

• Bomb Disposal Squad personnel defused a roadside IED targeting security forces in the Masokhel area of Badbher, Peshawar on July 18.[8]

• On July 18, a roadside IED targeting a Frontier Corps (FC) vehicle exploded and injured two FC personnel near the Karachi-Quetta highway in Sariab, Quetta.  A Bomb Disposal Squad official said that the IED was detonated by unknown individuals as the FC vehicle passed by.  According to reports by The Express Tribune, the blast injured one FC personnel and occurred in the Shalkot area on the Mastung-Karachi road.[9]

• Karachi Police chief Ghulam Qadir Thebo told Geo News on July 17 that around 40 groups of the TTP operate in Karachi and are involved in assassinating police personnel.  Thebo said that the Orangi Town area of Karachi suffers the brunt of TTP assassination operations.  Since September 5, 2013, the TTP have killed 22 police personnel in Orangi Town.  Thebo warned of increased TTP assassination operations in the wake of the ongoing operation in North Waziristan.  He specifically mentioned the TTP Swat group headed by Abid Mochhar as responsible for assassinations of police officials and for kidnapping and extortion in Karachi.[10]

• Islamabad police reportedly arrested four TTP members from Sihala during a joint Police and Rangers operation in an undisclosed area of Islamabad on July 17.[11]

Domestic Security

• In preparation for religious processions scheduled for Yaum-e-Ali on Sunday, July 20, Pakistani security forces heightened their security posture across the country. The occasion has been marred by sectarian violence on numerous occasions in years past.[12]

Pakistan-India Relations

• On July 17, Pakistan’s Foreign Office condemned recent cross-border firefights with India in the Siaklot sector. The fighting resulted in two Pakistani soldiers being injured and the death of an Indian solider.[13]

• On July 18, Pakistan’s Foreign Office asked India not to set pre-conditions for future talks aimed at improving bilateral relations because the Foreign Office believes such pre-conditions will hinder dialogue and efforts at rapprochement.[14]

Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations

• On July 18, Pakistan’s Foreign Office repeated its request to Afghanistan to prevent militants based in Afghanistan from planning attacks against Pakistan.[15]

• On July 17, spokesman for Afghanistan’s intelligence agency, Abdul Haseeb Sadique, said that the Haqqani network was behind the July 15 attack that killed dozens of people in Paktika, Afghanistan. He accused Pakistani security forces of not cracking down on the Haqqani Network. The Pakistani government says the accusations are false.[16]  

Pakistan-U.S. Relations

• On July 18, Airport Security Force personnel at Benazir Bhutto International Airport in Islamabad released U.S. embassy employee, William John, after he briefly detained on July 17 for attempting to carry loaded 9mm pistols in his baggage.  [17]

• On July 16, an unidentified official from the Pakistani government expressed his concern for the U.S.’s withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of the 2016. The official said that withdrawal from Afghanistan will lead an influx of refugees and militants entering into Pakistan.[18]

Pakistan’s Stability Rating

• On July 18, the credit rating agency Moody’s changed Pakistan’s credit outlook to “stable” and said it has seen an improvement in Pakistan’s governance.  Moody’s warned that three factors could hurt Pakistan’s rating: political instability, delays in complying with the IMF program, and a deterioration of Pakistan’s external payment capacity.[19]