Pakistan Security Brief - August 11, 2014

Government officials and Dr. Tahirul Qadri release conflicting reports of deaths, injuries, and arrests during Lahore protests; Qadri announces “revolution” march for August 14; Clashes between PAT activists and police occur across much of Punjab, particularly Lahore; Armed PAT workers break police cordon on Model Town in Lahore; Interior Minister calls on 3,000 Frontier Constabulary personnel to assist with security in Islamabad on August 14; Pakistani military advises government to let PTI hold August 14 march without resistance; Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif meets with PML-N leaders, cabinet ministers to develop strategy to against PTI; Law enforcement agencies foil potential militant attack on PTI March; JI chief says PTI will agree to call off August 14 march if Prime Minister carries out election recount in ten potentially rigged constituencies; IDPS debate moving back to North Waziristan; Residents of Eidiak, North Waziristan refuse to leave; Nawaz Sharif convenes national security conference to discuss North Waziristan offensive; Line of Control firing results in two Pakistani deaths and four Indian injuries; 22 mortar rounds fired from Paktia, Afghanistan into Datta Khel, North Waziristan; Taliban reportedly kills anti-Taliban militant in raid on home; Roadside IED detonates and militants fire on security force’s vehicle in Balochistan; Two suspected militants die when IED-rigged motorcycle detonates in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa; Security forces arrest suspected militants carrying suicide vests and explosives in Rawalpindi; Musharraf condemns June 17 Model Town incident.

PAT March

• The days leading up to an August 10 protest march planned by the Pakistan Awami Tehrik’s (PAT) Dr. Tahirul Qadri in Model Town, Lahore featured police crackdowns on PAT leaders and activists. Police forces allegedly arrested some 1,600 PAT activists prior to clashes on August 8. On August 8, police arrested 350 more PAT members. Also on August 8, PAT workers broke a police cordon and entered Model Town in Lahore. PAT youth wing and Tehrik Minhajul Quran members armed with clubs were active near the Minhajul Quran secretariat. Prior to the Model Town clashes, police arrested some 1,600 PAT activists. On August 9, violent clashes between PAT workers and police manning pickets took place in parts of Punjab. Clashes between PAT workers and police on GT Road near the Kamoki toll plaza resulted in injuries to 51 police officials. In Sargodha, both police officials and PAT workers were injured in clashes, and at least one police official reportedly died. In Sialkot Motra, police confiscated 60 police uniforms from a PAT activist. Over the weekend, an additional 400 to 500 PAT workers were arrested for allegedly injuring policemen, taking policemen hostage and damaging a police station and police vehicles. All entry points to Model Town were re-sealed on the morning of August 11 after containers blocking roads were briefly removed on August 9 to reduce traffic jams. Cell phone service is partially suspended around Model Town.[1]

• Conflicting death toll reports have been released by the government and the PAT. Dr. Qadri claimed eight activists had been killed and 2,000 injured in clashes over the weekend, whereas government officials claim only one PAT activist and one policeman had been killed. A police spokeswoman said that, by August 10, 135 policemen had been injured and 22 taken hostage in a total of 20 clashes with PAT protestors. On August 10, 55 policemen, including high ranking officials, were allegedly injured in clashes in Gujranwala.[2] 

• On August 10, PAT leader Dr. Tahirul Qadri announced that a ‘revolution march’ against the government that would take place on August 14. Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan lauded Qadri’s announcement in an August 11 press release and reiterated that the PTI’s own march planned for August 14 would be peaceful. Qadri also told supporters that the PAT was opposed to martial law and if anything were to happen to him they should avenge his death. Qadri claimed August 10 that security forces had arrested 25,000 PAT workers during recent clashes and protests.[3]

PTI March

• On August 11, the Interior Minister called on 3,000 Frontier Constabulary personnel to assist with security in Islamabad during the upcoming PTI and PAT rallies on August 14. Dawn reported that the Frontier Constabulary personnel will work alongside the Pakistan Army’s 111 Brigade commandos, Rangers, the police’s Elite Force, and intelligence personnel to secure the city ahead of the August 14 march.[4]

• According to an August 11 report by The Express Tribune, the Pakistani military has advised the Pakistani government to let PTI chief Imran Khan hold his August 14 march without resistance.  The military reportedly warned the Pakistani government of violence if it attempts to repress the protest.  In his meeting with top Pakistani military commanders in Rawalpindi on August 11, Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif will supposedly the current political situation discuss in detail.[5]

• Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met in Raiwind on August 11 with PML-N leaders, federal cabinet ministers and Punjab cabinet ministers to come up with a strategy to convince the PTI’s leadership to abandon its upcoming march on Islamabad.[6] 

• On August 10, Dawn reported that law enforcement agencies claimed they foiled a potential militant attack on the PTI’s march. Security forces completed a search operation in Kulachi sub-district, Dera Ismail Khan after receiving a tip that Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander ‘Qari Ikram’ was in the area. The search operation resulted in the arrest of three militants. Security forces also completed a search operation in the Gara Jana area and destroyed six of Commander Qari Ikram’s hideouts. Security forces found two suicide vests, hand grenades a rifle and suicide vest making materials.[7]

• Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) chief Sirajul Haq told Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on August 9 that PTI chief Imran Khan has allegedly agreed to call off his August 14 march on Islamabad if Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif carries out a recount in ten constituencies suspected of undergoing rigging during the 2013 elections.  PTI spokesperson Shireen Mazari denied Haq’s claims and said Khan would announce his demands to the government on August 14.  During an August 9 national security conference in Islamabad, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made another offer to talk with PTI chief Imran Khan and resolve the situation through dialogue.[8]

North Waziristan Offensive

• On August 11, Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif briefed a Pakistan Army Corps Commanders Conference on the progress of Operation Zarb-e-Azb at General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.  Sharif said that the operation has been a success so far, but emphasized the need to consolidate the operation’s gains and back up those gains with concerted long-term counter-terrorism efforts in North Waziristan.[9]

• Dawn reported on August 10 that many Internally Displaced People (IDPs) are split on the topic of repatriation. Part of a group of Utmanzai tribe elders met with local government officials about traveling back home to North Waziristan. The remainder of the group maintained that IDPs should wait until the government ensures long-term peace in North Waziristan before returning.[10]

• On August 9, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif convened a national security conference in Islamabad to discuss the ongoing operation in North Waziristan.  The conference brought together National Assembly party leaders and top military commanders to engineer a long-term strategy to counter militancy.  According to political sources, the conference forged a “rare consensus” among political leaders for Operation Zarb-e-Azb and for military action against militants.  During the conference, both Prime Minister Sharif and Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif asserted that the Pakistani government invoked Article 245 at the military’s request to prevent militant reprisals following Operation Zarb-e-Azb, not to repress upcoming PTI and PAT protests.  Prime Minister Sharif also said that the government has developed a “comprehensive” plan for the resettlement of IDPs from North Waziristan.  PTI chief Imran Khan did not attend the conference.[11]

• On August 8, residents of Eidiak, North Waziristan Agency refused to leave despite impending military operations in the area. This announcement came two days after the administration told residents of Eidek, Razmak, Spinwam, Shewa and Shawal to evacuate and relocate to neighboring Bannu district. The decision to remain was not unanimous and the Eidiak people said they will remain in dialogue with the administration.[12]

Indo-Pak Relations

• An exchange of fire between Indian and Pakistani border forces across the Working Boundary at Sialkot in Chawah sector on August 11 resulted in two Pakistani civilians being killed and three Pakistani and four Indian civilians being wounded. The News claims that the firefight began with unprovoked Indian fire that sparked retaliatory firing by Pakistani Rangers.[13]

Pak-Afghan Relations

• On August 8, security officials reported that as many as 22 mortar rounds were fired from Afghanistan’s Paktia province into North Waziristan’s Datta Khel sub-district.  Officials reported no casualties from the event.[14]

Militancy

• On August 8, suspected Taliban militants from Afghanistan raided the house of, and killed, Nazmeen Khan, a local anti-Taliban militia leader, along with three other members of his family in Tenai Dara village, Upper Dir district, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.  The militants injured two other family members in the attack.[15]

• On August 8, two militants reportedly died of cardiac arrest in the custody of security forces in Swat.  The two militants were first arrested during the 2009 Swat military operation.[16]

• On August 10, Pishtakhara police in Peshawar arrested Najmul Haq, an Afghan national whose brother is reportedly a senior Taliban commander.  Police reportedly stopped Haq at a checkpoint and found explosive materials in his possession.  Other sources, however, refuted those claims and said that Haq was arrested during a raid on Ring Road in Lahore last week.[17]

• On August 11, a roadside improvised explosive device (IED) detonated and injured at least four people on Mall Road in Chaman, Balochistan.  Security forces personnel said the IED was fitted to a motorcycle. The road, which connects Balochistan to Afghanistan, was the scene of another IED attack on August 7 which targeted a police convoy and injured 12 people.  That IED was also reportedly fitted to a motorcycle.[18]

• On the night of August 9, suspected militants fired upon a security forces’ vehicle on the Quetta-Kharan road in Kharan district, Balochistan.  Security forces personnel successfully repelled the attacked, but three civilians including a woman and a child were killed in the crossfire.[19] 

• On August 9, two suspected militants died when their IED-equipped motorcycle accidentally detonated in Sakhakot area of Malakand Agency, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.[20]

• On August 10, security forces personnel arrested three suspected militants carrying two suicide vests and explosive materials at Chaklala Railway Station in Rawalpindi.  The militants were scheduled to travel from Rawalpindi to Lahore.[21]

Musharraf Trial

• On August 10, former president General (retd.) Pervez Musharraf spoke to the press for the first time in nearly three months, asserting that he is not “running away from Pakistan.” The Leader of the Pakistani Senate told the press on August 10 that the Pakistani government is facing great pressure to remove Musharraf’s name from the Exit Control List and to let him flee Pakistan.[22]