Key takeaway: Officials discussed the possibility of senior hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi’s candidacy in the presidential elections.

Amir Hossein Gaizizadeh, a senior member of the hardline Steadfastness Front, called Ebrahim Raisi the “fittest candidate” for the May 2017 presidential elections. Raisi is a member of the Assembly of Experts member and head of the Astan Quds Razavi Foundation. Guardian Council Spokesman Abbasali Khadkhodaei also mentioned invitations by “some political groups” urging Raisi to run in the 2017 presidential elections in a recent interview.  Conservatives have been unable to unite behind a single candidate in the past several elections, leading to Hassan Rouhani’s success in the 2013 presidential elections.  Conservatives have continued to struggle to unite ahead of the 2017 elections. Many signs indicate that Raisi may also be the regime’s top pick to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei himself held the presidency in the 1980s before becoming supreme leader in 1989.  For more on the upcoming presidential election, please see "Iran Presidential Tracker: Updates and Analysis.”

The next Iran News Round Up will be published on February 24.

Economy
February 23, 2017

Iran and Russia to sign oil export deal.

Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh announced that Iran and Russia will sign a deal outlining the export of 100,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil per day to Russia. Zanganeh explained that half of the exported shipment would be paid in cash according to a payment plan while the remainder would be spent on Russian imports. The purpose of such exports is unclear, since Russia is a major oil exporter itself and certainly does not need Iranian oil.  It is likely part of an agreement to finance Iranian purchases, possibly of weapons, without requiring Iran to pay cash or compelling Russia to advance credit. The deal could be worth approximately $1.8 billion per year at current oil prices; Iran has reportedly sought to purchase $6 billion worth of Russian weapons. (Fars News Agency) (E) (ISNA)

Citations & Links

ISNA Fars News Agency
February 23, 2017

Iran and Iraq sign MoU on possible Kirkuk oil pipeline.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh and his Iraqi counterpart Jabar al Luaibi signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to research the construction of an oil pipeline between the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk and Iran. This pipeline would export about 150,000 barrels per day from Kirkuk via Iran. This agreement involves Iran more directly in the thorny oil politics between Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) than it has hitherto been willing to go. A pipeline from Kirkuk to Iran would reduce the de facto control Iraq’s Kurds have over the disposition of oil in the disputed Kirkuk fields, as it would provide an alternative to the pipelines to Turkey that the KRG controls. If this pipeline project moves beyond the research phase, it could signal Tehran’s desire to curtail Kurdish separatist and independence movements in Iraq and Syria by giving Baghdad greater leverage over the KRG. (Tasnim News Agency) (E)

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Tasnim News Agency
Military and Security
February 23, 2017

IRGC special forces simulate defending against signature ISIS and al Qaeda attacks during “Great Prophet 11” exercises.

The IRGC Ground Forces concluded the third and final day of the “Great Prophet 11” exercises in northeastern Iran. Saberin special forces units simulated stopping a multi-SVBIED [suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device] attack. Multi-SVBIED attacks are a signature of both Al Qaeda and ISIS. The exercises also featured a simulation of rocket and missile attacks on Cobra attack helicopters from the IRGC Ground Forces’ air assault unit, which was formed last year. Bell 206 and 214 helicopters provided “combat support” during the simulation. The IRGC is unlikely to face such attacks in Iran itself, so these exercises should likely be viewed as preparation for continued combat operations in Syria. The IRGC Ground Forces also unveiled a new anti-helicopter mine called the “Saeqeh” [Lightning]. Basij Beit ol Moghaddas and Imam Hossein Brigades also carried out urban “defense operations.”  (Tasnim News Agency)

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Tasnim News Agency
Regional Developments and Diplomacy
February 23, 2017

Araghchi: We expected “only nuclear sanctions” to be lifted.

Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Abbas Araghchi stated that all nuclear-related sanctions against Iran have been lifted according to the requirements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Araghchi acknowledged the ongoing non-nuclear sanctions against Iran, but stated that “the JCPOA was supposed to clear the obstacles of nuclear sanctions out of the way of the economy. Other sanctions exist, but the subject of the nuclear talks was only with respect to nuclear sanctions… only nuclear sanctions were expected to be lifted.” Araghchi’s comments depart from other regime officials’ previous statements regarding the nuclear deal and the lifting of non-nuclear sanctions. Iranian officials have argued that the continuation of non-nuclear sanctions on Iran constitutes a violation of the nuclear deal. (IRNA) (E) (ISNA)

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ISNA IRNA
Domestic Politics
February 23, 2017

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s son summoned to begin his six-year prison sentence.

Ahmad Montazeri, son of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Montazeri, was summoned to begin his six-year prison term. Ahmad Montazeri was initially sentenced to 21 years in jail after releasing an audio tape of his father criticizing the Islamic Republic’s 1988 executions of approximately 5,000 political prisoners.  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini designated Grand Ayatollah Montazeri as his successor in the 1980s but later dismissed him following Montazeri’s criticism of the regime’s policies and human rights record. (ISNA)

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ISNA
February 23, 2017

Ahmadinejad’s VP enters presidential race.

Hamid Baghaei, who served as vice president under former hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, announced his candidacy for the May 2017 presidential elections. Baghaei mentioned that his bid for the presidency is “completely independent of individuals, groups, parties and political factions.” Baghaei was arrested in June 2015, likely on corruption charges. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pressured Ahmadinejad himself not to run in the elections. (Tasnim News Agency)

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Tasnim News Agency
February 23, 2017

Rezaei: I would consider an offer from principlist group to run in presidential elections.

Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated that if the Popular Front of Islamic Revolutionary Forces asks him to run in the May presidential elections, he “will think about it.” The Popular Front of Islamic Revolutionary Forces is a principlist organization which formed in December 2016 with the aim of proposing a single conservative candidate to challenge President Hassan Rouhani. Rezaei previously ran in the 2009 and the 2013 presidential elections. (Mehr News Agency)

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Mehr News Agency
February 23, 2017

Hardline parliamentarian: Ebrahim Raisi should run for president.

Amir Hossein Gazizadeh, a senior member of the hardline Steadfastness Front, called Assembly of Experts member and prominent hardliner Ebrahim Raisi the “fittest candidate” for the May 2017 presidential elections. Gazizadeh reportedly stated a week ago that Steadfastness Front members attempted to “persuade Ebrahim Raisi to run in the [presidential] elections, but did not succeed.”

  • Guardian Council Spokesman Abbasali Kadkhoadaei also addressed “some political groups’ invitations” urging Ebrahimi “to run in the presidential elections.” Khadkhodei noted that if Raisi runs for president, he must resign from his position on the Central Elections Monitoring Board. The board operates under the auspices of the Guardian Council and assists in monitoring the presidential elections. (Alef) (Nameh News)

Citations & Links

Nameh News Alef