Critical Threats Today - February 24, 2017

The U.S. Treasury designated two leaders of Jabhat al Nusra, Iyad Nazmi Salih Khalil and Bassam Ahmad al Hasri, as the U.S. increases pressure on al Qaeda in Syria. Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra, now operates under the name of Tahrir al Sham Assembly, an organization that has included other Syrian opposition groups. Khalil is Jabhat al Nusra’s emir in Syria’s coastal region and was one of the founding members of the organization. Al Hasri is Jabhat al Nusra’s emir in Deraa, taking Khalil’s former position. Syrian authorities released him from prison in 2011.

The Egyptian, Tunisian, and Algerian foreign ministers met to discuss potential solutions to the Libyan crisis after talks between UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj and Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar broke down on February 13. The three ministers stated that any solution must be based on the Libyan Political Agreement, the UN-brokered deal that established the GNA in December 2015. An agreement between the GNA and the LNA would exclude key powerbrokers in Libya, including militias that possess significant political and military power. This process is unlikely to lead to a sustainable solution. 

The group attacked a Nigerien company near Ouallam, Tillaberi Region, in southwest Niger on February 23. The attack generated more casualties than the group’s last major attack in Burkina Faso, indicating that it may have increased its capabilities or manpower in recent months. The group also seized several vehicles, which may serve as resources for future attacks. Sahrawi’s group likely operates from a safe haven in the Malian-Nigerien border region. The governments of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso recently agreed to establish a joint counterterrorism force to secure this region, but coordination remains limited. (Related reading: A New ISIS Branch in the Sahel?)

Al Shabaab captured Amara and Elhur towns in southwestern Mudug region on February 21 and February 23. Regional states like Galmudug, which governs Galgudud and Mudug regions in central Somalia, do not possess the security capabilities necessary to defend their positions against al Shabaab. Al Shabaab is poised to advance north in Mudug region to seize Hobyo town, located 200 kilometers southeast of Galkayo.

Riyadh may be increasing its media coverage of al Houthi-Saleh attacks in southern Saudi Arabia to build support within the Trump administration for its aims in Yemen. The Saudi Press Agency stepped up reporting of Saudi casualties caused by al Houthi-Saleh cross-border attacks in February. This reporting coincides with an effort by the Saudi government to convince the Trump administration that the U.S. should take a stronger stance against the al Houthi-Saleh bloc in Yemen. (Related reading: Pushing Back on Iran: Policy Options in Yemen)

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated that “Iran is interested in acquiring 12 Sukhoi Superjet 100 planes soon,” according to Russian news outlet Rossiya 24. Novak also reportedly stated that Russia has expressed interest in launching “joint production” of Ilyushin Il-114 aircraft in Iran.

Twenty-one names are on the ballot to select a presidential candidate from the Popular Front of Islamic Revolutionary Forces. The Popular Front of Islamic Revolutionary Forces is a coalition of principlist groups founded to propose a single conservative candidate to challenge President Hassan Rouhani.