Critical Threats Today - March 1, 2017

Sources close to the Kremlin stated that Russian officials spoke to the U.S. National Security Council about joining Russia's efforts to support Haftar. Russia will use Haftar’s fight against terrorism as a selling point in order to leverage American and European concerns over terrorism and migration. At the same time, Russia is positioning itself as a broker to a broad range of Libyan factions, including the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj will attend Russia-brokered talks in Moscow in the coming days. Russia’s goal is to secure military and economic influence in Libya while pushing back on the influence of the U.S. and its allies in the Mediterranean. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)

Suspected militants from Ansar al Islam, a Fulani Salafi-jihadi organization, attacked three towns in Soum province of northern Burkina Faso. The militants looted and burned the mayors’ offices and police stations in each town. These attacks are Ansar al Islam’s first major operation since its inaugural attack in December 2016. The attacks mirror the targeting and tactics of the Macina Liberation Front (MLF), a majority Fulani al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) affiliate in Mali, suggesting that the two groups coordinate. AQIM has taken advantage of networks used by ethnic groups, notably the Tuareg, to expand its area of operations in the past. The Burkinabe government is in the midst of military and intelligence reforms but is not ready combat the threat. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)

A famine, caused by drought, will hit hardest in Somaliland and Puntland states in northern Somalia, the Mudug and Galgudud regions in central Somalia, and Gedo region in southwestern Somalia. These are not al Shabaab’s primary control zones, so famine conditions will not significantly degrade the public perception of al Shabaab. The government’s failure to respond with adequate humanitarian assistance could raise al Shabaab’s profile in these areas. (Related reading: Al Shabaab and the Challenges of Providing Humanitarian Assistance in Somalia)

Anti-al Houthi popular resistance forces in Dhamar governorate, central Yemen, began a series of attacks against al Houthi-Saleh forces for the first time in over a year on February 15. Al Houthi-Saleh forces responded aggressively. This response will likely fuel anti-al Houthi sentiment. AQAP has historically expanded its support base by building relationships with anti-al Houthi tribal militias. These ties are strong in central Yemen, where President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government and the Saudi-led coalition do not play an active role in the civil war. AQAP may begin operations against al Houthi-Saleh forces in Dhamar in the near term to capitalize on the uprising. (Related reading: Warning to the Trump administration: Be careful about Yemen)

Reformist Mohammad Reza Aref, moderate-conservative Ali Motahari, and dozens of other parliamentarians met with reformist former President Mohammad Khatami on February 26. Some analysts stated that as many as 50 parliamentarians attended the meeting to commemorate the gains by the reformist-moderate “List of Hope” faction in the February 2016 parliamentary elections. Motahari declined to discuss the topics of conversation at the meeting, but stressed that he is continuing with a previous plan to press for a meeting with Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard, who remain under house arrest. The size of the parliamentary contingent present at the meeting is notable, as Khatami is under a Judiciary-mandated media ban for his support to 2009 Green Movement.

The Foreign Ministry’s Political Affairs and International Security Director-General Gholam Hossein Dehghani and Russia’s Director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control Mikhail Ulyanov voiced their opposition to the “development of America’s missile capabilities without concern for other countries’ interests” during a meeting in Moscow. Driving the U.S. from the Middle East is the primary and enduring common goal between Iran and Russia. Russia may be using the two sides’ statements to create an equivalence between the Iranian and U.S. missile programs.