These are the major events from March 10 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Libya
Disastrous humanitarian conditions have increased the number of migrants seeking to flee from Libya to Europe to approximately 300,000.West Africa
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s failing health risks throwing Nigeria into chaos and creating an environment permissive for insurgency. Al Qaeda-linked groups in the Sahel region are increasing their cooperation in support of al Qaeda’s objective to unify the Salafi-jihadi movement under its leadership.Horn of Africa
The UAE’s efforts to increase its influence in the Gulf of Aden region will likely undermine the Somali Federal Government (SFG) as it attempts to exercise sovereignty in the northern regions of Somalia.Disastrous humanitarian conditions have increased the number of migrants seeking to flee from Libya to Europe to approximately 300,000.
Conflict over Libya’s oil resources will further degrade security and disrupt the implementation of an EU plan to limit cross-Mediterranean migration. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s failing health risks throwing Nigeria into chaos and creating an environment permissive for insurgency.
President Buhari, a northern Muslim, returned to Nigeria after spending six weeks in London on medical leave but will not resume his duties in the near term. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, a southern Christian, will continue as acting head of state, a position he has held since January 19. Buhari’s inability to reassume the presidency, and his repeated warnings that he may need to return to London for additional treatment, indicate that Buhari is near death. The political situation in Nigeria may deteriorate if Buhari dies in office. Protests and violence will spread across the Muslim north if Vice President Osinbajo serves the rest of Buhari’s term. Buhari’s party, the All Progressives’ Congress (APC), could fracture, creating more instability if Osinbajo calls for early elections. Sectarian tensions in Nigeria will be inflamed no matter which scenario plays out.
Al Qaeda-linked groups in the Sahel region are increasing their cooperation in support of al Qaeda’s objective to unify the Salafi-jihadi movement under its leadership.
Al Qaeda affiliate Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), an umbrella organization of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) affiliates, claimed its first attack after its creation. JNIM attacked a Malian army base in Boulikessi, Mali on the Burkinabe border on March 5. Ansar al Islam, an AQIM associated based in Burkina Faso, also claimed credit for the attack. JNIM’s coordination with Ansar al Islam may indicate that AQIM’s influence is expanding into Burkina Faso. The Boulikessi attack is Ansar al Islam’s first attack outside of Burkina Faso. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)
The UAE’s efforts to increase its influence in the Gulf of Aden region will likely undermine the Somali Federal Government (SFG) as it attempts to exercise sovereignty in the northern regions of Somalia.
The UAE is finalizing a deal with Puntland state, a semi-autonomous region in northwestern Somalia, to manage and develop a key port at Boosaaso in Bari region. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Yemen use the Boosaaso port as a refueling station and trade hub with access to the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Aden. The Boosaaso port contract follows a $442 million agreement between the UAE and Somaliland, an autonomous region in northeastern Somalia, to construct a military port in Berbera, located 500 kilometers west of Boosaaso. The UAE recalled its ambassador to Somalia after the SFG denounced the deal as a violation of Somali sovereignty.
UN Special Envoy to Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed reportedly proposed new ceasefire terms to President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government and its allies.
Ould Cheikh Ahmed’s proposal would include the deployment of Yemeni forces from Hadramawt governorate, eastern Yemen, for a peacekeeping role in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, during negotiations and a government transition. The Hadramawt forces are opposed to the al Houthi movement. The al Houthi-Saleh bloc, which has expressed willingness to negotiate within prior frameworks, will likely reject these terms. The Hadi government and its allies will frame the rejection as justification to pursue a military solution against the al Houthi-Saleh faction, continuing the civil war. (Recommended reading: Warning to the Trump administration: Be careful about Yemen)
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated conservatives’ harsh criticism of President Hassan Rouhani’s implementation of the Resistance Economy doctrine.
Khamenei stated, “If all the necessary steps” regarding the Resistance Economy “had been taken, today, we would have observed a tangible difference in the country’s economic conditions and people’s lives” during a meeting with the Assembly of Experts on March 9. Several senior political and military officials have criticized Rouhani’s implementation of the doctrine recently. IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, for example, indicated that the government’s success in the economic realm should be measured according to its implementation of the doctrine. Khamenei’s statement will lend considerable weight to conservatives’ mounting opprobrium against Rouhani, who has struggled to improve Iran’s economy in the wake of the 2015 nuclear deal.