These are the major events from March 16 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Horn of Africa
The rapid response of the Puntland Maritime Police Forces (PMPF) and clan negotiations secured the release of an oil tanker from a group of Somali pirates.Libya
Conflict in Tripoli decreased after the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) brokered a ceasefire between rival militias in Tripoli, but the ceasefire is unlikely to hold.West Africa
Boko Haram-Barnawi remains capable of attacking Nigerian security targets in spite of an ongoing famine that has affected the group.The rapid response of the Puntland Maritime Police Forces (PMPF) and clan negotiations secured the release of an oil tanker from a group of Somali pirates.
The capture of the commercial vessel on March 13 was the first successful hijacking since 2012. PMPF clashed with the pirates on March 16 and subsequent negotiations secured the release of the vessel.
Conflict in Tripoli decreased after the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) brokered a ceasefire between rival militias in Tripoli, but the ceasefire is unlikely to hold.
Major militias from both pro- and anti-GNA factions refused to sign it. The agreement called for an immediate ceasefire and for militias that do not recognize the GNA to leave Tripoli within 30 days. The ceasefire is intended to end four days of fighting between loosely pro-GNA militias and hardline Islamist militias that support a defunct governing body. Tensions in the city remain high and some clashes continued after the ceasefire. The GNA’s lack of a loyal, stable security force will continue to undermine its influence in Tripoli. (Recommended reading: Ignoring History: America's Losing Strategy in Libya)
Boko Haram-Barnawi remains capable of attacking Nigerian security targets in spite of an ongoing famine that has affected the group.
Suspected Boko Haram-Barnawi militants attacked a military position in Magumeri, western Borno State, northwestern Nigeria. Magumeri is located on a key road that connects Barnawi’s support zone to Borno State’s capital, Maiduguri.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) may escalate the fight against Emirati-backed forces in Hadramawt governorate, eastern Yemen.
AQAP warned Hadhrami tribes against aligning with the U.S. or the UAE and attacked a base used by Emirati-backed forces in Hadramawt. AQAP activity in Hadramawt may be a response to pressure on AQAP in central and southern Yemen, where U.S. airstrikes targeted AQAP in early March. U.S. forces conducted over 40 airstrikes in al Bayda, Shabwah, and Abyan governorates between March 2 and 6, but only struck AQAP once in Hadramawt in 2017. AQAP may conduct an attack campaign in Hadramawt in order to expand its permissive environment in Yemen. (Recommended reading: Targeting AQAP: U.S. Airstrikes in Yemen)
IRGC Commander Ali Jafari attacked Rouhani administration officials as “un-revolutionary.”
IRGC Major General Jafari claimed that “many officials” who are “governing the country now” have a “Western, liberal, and un-revolutionary viewpoint” and are “proud” of their degrees from “Western universities” during a speech at a Qom seminary. Jafari’s comments likely represent a direct attack on the ideological commitment of President Hassan Rouhani and his cabinet members, among other government officials. Rouhani himself received his master’s and doctoral degrees from Glasgow Caledonian University in Scotland, and his cabinet has featured more alums from U.S. colleges and universities than any other foreign government cabinet in the world. Jafari’s comments intensify the stream of criticism of Rouhani by conservative politicians and other IRGC officers leading up to the May presidential elections.