These are the major events from March 21 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Libya
Conflict between Islamist militias and the LNA is expanding toward central and southern Libya.West Africa
French forces in Mali are changing patrol tactics in order to interdict the movement of al Qaeda associates through the desert.Conflict between Islamist militias and the LNA is expanding toward central and southern Libya.
The LNA launched “Operation Quicksand” in Sebha, Tamnahent, and Waddan, in southern and central Libya, as part of its existing efforts to “liberate the south” from the control of the Misratan Third Force and associated Islamist militias. Increasing tensions between the LNA and Misratan militias in Tripoli over the past few days will cause the LNA escalate its operations against Islamist militias in order to expand its sphere of influence westward. The heightened conflict will set conditions for al Qaeda and ISIS to expand and rebuild their capabilities.
French forces in Mali are changing patrol tactics in order to interdict the movement of al Qaeda associates through the desert.
French forces previously conducted numerous arrests in urban areas of northern Mali. French forces arrested three suspected Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) militants travelling in a convoy in the Timbuktu region of Mali. French forces are now prioritizing patrols through the desert in sparsely populated areas, according to a source cited by the Malian news site Kibaru. The French vehicles may also fly Salafi-jihadi flags to ambush militants.
Al Shabaab intensified a campaign of mass-casualty attacks in Mogadishu in an effort to degrade security in the capital following the inauguration of President Farmajo on February 22.
Al Shabaab militants detonated a VBIED at a military checkpoint only a half mile away from the Somali presidential palace in Mogadishu on March 21. At least 20 al Shabaab militants also attacked the Somali Defense Ministry headquarters in Mogadishu on March 20. These attacks follow last week’s SVBIED explosions that killed at least 30 government and military officials in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab is likely to maintain a heightened tempo of attacks in the near-term. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Possible?)
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated his interpretation of the Resistance Economy doctrine.
Khamenei stressed the importance of expanding and relying upon domestic production during an annual speech at the Imam Reza Shrine. The Supreme Leader also called for Iran to limit its imports to those products which cannot be produced domestically. Khamenei’s comments reinforce his established interpretation of the Resistance Economy doctrine. Khamenei’s interpretation of the doctrine, which is designed to make Iran’s economy resistant to future sanctions and other external economic shocks, espouses managed and limited economic integration.
Khamenei’s comments follow a series of public disagreements with President Hassan Rouhani over the Rouhani administration’s implementation of the Resistance Economy doctrine. Rouhani has called for greater integration moving towards normalization. Rouhani defended his economic record on March 20, stating that his administration “is proud” of “the path” it “has chosen.”
Iran may be preparing for the U.S. to increase its engagement in Yemen by intensifying materiel support to and its train and assist mission for al Houthi-Saleh forces.
Iranian-made weapons and parts are appearing in Yemen with increasing frequency, despite Iranian officials’ denial of direct support. Al Houthi-Saleh forces possess drones, ballistic missiles, anti-tank and anti-ship weapons with the capability to counter much of the Hadi government’s equipment and hold territory. Afghan and Shia Arab specialists’ training and logistical support for the al Houthis indicates that Iran may be expanding its network of proxy forces to support the IRGC Quds Forces’ efforts in Yemen. This network includes Lebanese Hezbollah, Afghan Shia militia Fatimiyoun Brigade, Pakistani Shia militia Zeinabiyoun Brigade, and various Iraqi Shia militias. It is active in Iraq and Syria. This equipment and support will only prolong the Yemen civil war. (Recommended reading: Pushing Back on Iran: Policy Options in Yemen)