These are the major events from March 27 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Al Qaeda Global
U.S. airstrikes to degrade al Qaeda’s and associated group’s senior leadership will only have a temporary effect.Libya
Russia is strengthening its relationships with Libyan leaders in an effort to contest NATO’s control of the Mediterranean from North Africa, in addition to Syria.West Africa
Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM), an al Qaeda-associated group in the Sahel, claimed credit for a series of attacks in central Mali, indicating its role in Salafi-jihadi insurgency among the Fulani in central Mali. Algerian authorities continue to crack down on ISIS militants in Algeria. Boko Haram-Barnawi will alienate the local Nigerian population if it continues to target civilians.Horn of Africa
The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Galgudud region in central Somalia will likely allow al Shabaab to seize towns in the area.U.S. airstrikes to degrade al Qaeda’s and associated group’s senior leadership will only have a temporary effect.
The U.S. conducted a drone strike targeting Qari Yasin, a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) explosives expert who planned several high-profile attacks in Pakistan. Yasin planned the 2008 Islamabad hotel bombing, which killed two U.S. soldiers. Yasin’s eulogy indicated he had already trained his replacement.
Russia is strengthening its relationships with Libyan leaders in an effort to contest NATO’s control of the Mediterranean from North Africa, in addition to Syria.
NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller stated that Russia’s support for Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar contradicts the Kremlin’s initial support for the UN-backed Government of National Accord. Supporting the LNA will allow Russia to gain access to military bases in eastern Libya, but the LNA’s expansion into central and western Libya, bolstered by Russian support, will further undermine the weak GNA and increase instability in Libya. Russia is simultaneously pursuing a diplomatic line of effort to secure economic interests in Libya, including a major oil deal that will increase Russia’s influence over oil supplies to Europe. Russia will also use its alliance with Haftar to strengthen its ties to Egypt, another Haftar backer, with the aim of drawing Egypt away from the U.S. sphere of influence. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)
Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM), an al Qaeda-associated group in the Sahel, claimed credit for a series of attacks in central Mali, indicating its role in Salafi-jihadi insurgency among the Fulani in central Mali.
JNIM attacked Malian army and ethnic Bambara militia positions in Segou and Mopti regions. JNIM captured a checkpoint in Djenne in Mali’s central Mopti region. The attacks signal the start of a sustained JNIM-led campaign after a period of inactivity, which JNIM forces may have used to prepare for this campaign. Militants from the ethnically Fulani Macina Liberation Front, a group closely affiliated with the groups that merged into JNIM, conducted the claimed attacks. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)
Algerian authorities continue to crack down on ISIS militants in Algeria.
The Algerian Army killed the alleged leader of ISIS Wilayat Jaza'ir (Algeria Province) on March 25 in Constantine province in northern Algeria. ISIS in Algeria may attempt to orchestrate an attack against Algerian security forces in response. ISIS’s capabilities in Algeria are likely limited to small arms and improvised explosive device (IED) or suicide vest attacks. (Related reading: AQIM and ISIS in Algeria: Competing Campaigns)
Boko Haram-Barnawi will alienate the local Nigerian population if it continues to target civilians.
Militants loyal to the ISIS-recognized faction of Boko Haram, led by Abu Musab al Barnawi, stole food and medical supplies from civilians, kidnapped several women and children, and issued corporal punishments in Borno State, Nigeria on March 27. Barnawi's faction previously differentiated itself from the rival Boko Haram-Shekau faction by engaging with the local populace and only attacking government security forces. Barnawi's faction, which has ties to ISIS and links to al Qaeda, will weaken if it loses local support.
The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Galgudud region in central Somalia will likely allow al Shabaab to seize towns in the area.
Ethiopian troops serving under the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) withdrew from Elbur, Elaheley, and Dhusamareb towns in Galgudud region on March 26. The movement of Ethiopian forces resembles withdrawals that took place in Bakool and Hiraan regions between September and November 2016, when Ethiopian forces redeployed to counter domestic unrest. The withdrawal of more than 3,000 Ethiopian troops allowed al Shabaab to seize at least six towns in these areas in 2016. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops operating under the AMISOM mandate would compromise AMISOM’s ability to sustain operations against al Shabaab, undermining the U.S. counterterrorism strategy in Somalia. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) uses arms received through participation in coalition-backed anti-al Houthi-Saleh militias in its attacks.
AQAP conducted a complex suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive (SVBIED) attack on a Lahij governorate headquarters in southern Yemen. The AQAP militants that participated in this attack had been part of the Saudi-led coalition offensive to seize Yemen’s western coastUpdated AssessmentThis assessment reflects an update from the original posting.. (Related reading: AQAP: A Resurgent Threat and 2017 Yemen Crisis Situation Report: March 23)
Two Iranians based in Tehran province were killed in Hama governorate, Syria, on March 24-25.
Pro-Syrian regime forces are engaged in ongoing operations against Hay’at Tahrir al Sham, the successor to al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, and former U.S.-backed opposition groups in northern Hama.
The Iranian regime sanctioned 15 U.S. companies in response to a new round of U.S. sanctions to assuage certain domestic audiences.
The sanctioned companies include Raytheon, ITT Corporation, and United Technologies. Senior parliamentarian Alaeddin Boroujerdi said that Iran’s parliament will consider designating U.S. military and intelligence organizations as terrorist organizations. The U.S. imposed sanctions on 11 companies or individuals from China, North Korea, and the United Arab Emirates for technology transfers to Iran’s ballistic missile program under the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA) on March 21. The U.S. also sanctioned 19 foreign entities and individuals for other violations under INKSNA. IRGC officials have called for Iran to strengthen its strategy against the U.S.