These are the major events from April 3 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Libya
The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) is making concessions to the rival Libyan National Army (LNA) in order to increase its own legitimacy in Libya.West Africa
The parties to the Malian peace accords are struggling to form a united front against the al Qaeda network.Horn of Africa
Al Shabaab is capitalizing on the withdrawal of Ethiopian AMISOM troops by retaking control of towns in Galgudud region in central Somalia.The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) is making concessions to the rival Libyan National Army (LNA) in order to increase its own legitimacy in Libya.
GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj stated that LNA commander Khalifa Haftar is the commander in chief of the Libyan army. Serraj is willing to recognize Haftar as the legitimate military authority in Libya in order to appeal to the LNA-aligned House of Representatives (HoR), which has the power to officially recognize the GNA as Libya’s governing entity. The HoR may also press Haftar to participate in the Libyan political process, which he has avoided. Serraj would also benefit from the LNA’s military support in order to break its reliance on Ansar al Sharia-aligned militias. Haftar is unlikely to ally with the GNA, however, and will continue to pursue a military solution while he remains in a position of strength. (Related reading: Ignoring History: America’s Losing Strategy in Libya)
The parties to the Malian peace accords are struggling to form a united front against the al Qaeda network.
Representatives of the two major coalitions of non-state armed groups in northern Mali recommended that the Malian government open negotiations with the al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) associates Ansar al Din and the Macina Liberation Front. The Malian government is unlikely to consider such negotiations, setting conditions for a potential breakdown in relations between the Malian government and non-state armed groups in northern Mali. (Related reading: Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)
Al Shabaab is capitalizing on the withdrawal of Ethiopian AMISOM troops by retaking control of towns in Galgudud region in central Somalia.
Al Shabaab militants seized Elbur town, located 200 miles northeast of Mogadishu, without encountering resistance from Somali or AMISOM forces. Al Shabaab will continue to advance in regions of central Somalia where AMISOM no longer operates. (Related reading: US Counterterrorism Objectives in Somalia: Is Mission Failure Likely?)
Iranian casualties in Syria
Iranian media announced the deaths of four Iranians in Syria, including an IRGC brigadier general second class and two other members of the IRGC 19th Fajr Division based in Fars province.
President Hassan Rouhani downplayed the recent tension between himself and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A positive relationship with Khamenei will be essential to Rouhani’s success in the May presidential elections.
Rouhani dismissed allegations that there is “distance” between his administration and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rouhani stressed that his administration “is subject to” Khamenei and is “proud” of its “solidarity and unity” with the Supreme Leader. Rouhani has worked to de-escalate the tensions between himself and Khamenei over the former’s implementation of the Resistance Economy doctrine ahead of the May presidential elections. Rouhani has maintained a positive relationship with Khamenei during his presidency, however. Rouhani’s continued relationship with Khamenei is essential to the survival of his presidency.
The U.S., Saudi-led coalition, and Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government may have an opportunity to gain support among local tribal sheikhs and officials against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Tribal, religious, and local leaders met in Abyan in southern Yemen on April 1 to discuss the effect of the intensified campaign against AQAP on the local population. They issued a statement denouncing all forms of terrorism, but also denounced the bombing campaign. The tribal leaders called on Hadi’s government to assume responsibility for the counterterrorism mission in Abyan in order to protect civilians. AQAP has had freedom of movement within Abyan governorate. (Related reading: Targeting AQAP: U.S. Airstrikes in Yemen)