These are the major events from April 4 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Libya
The Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) may be willing to participate in the UN-led political process after blocking it for over a year.West Africa
A Boko Haram leadership cadre oriented on attacking the West may consolidate control over the ISIS-recognized faction.The Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) may be willing to participate in the UN-led political process after blocking it for over a year.
The possibility of negotiations, however, may cause backlash from anti-Libyan National Army (LNA) factions that have previously supported the Government of National Accord (GNA). The HoR voted to set a number of conditions in order to take part in the talks that will amend the UN-brokered Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), which established the GNA. The HoR has boycotted the LPA talks on numerous occasions. Its new willingness to negotiate may be due to the GNA’s recent recognition of LNA commander Khalifa Haftar as the commander-in-chief of the Libyan army. (Related reading: Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya)
A Boko Haram leadership cadre oriented on attacking the West may consolidate control over the ISIS-recognized faction.
The leader of the ISIS-recognized Boko Haram faction, Abu Musab al Barnawi, is failing to uphold his promise to forego attacks on Muslim civilians and risks losing local credibility. Boko Haram-Barnawi suicide bombers attacked a funeral procession in southern Borno State, Nigeria on March 30, killing at least 12 civilians and wounding 23 others. Barnawi’s second -in-command Mamman Nur, a seasoned commander with ties to al Shabaab and AQIM, will likely consolidate control of the faction and prioritize attacks on Western targets, which he has planned in the past.
Al Shabaab’s hostility toward international aid organizations will exacerbate the humanitarian disaster and may antagonize rural Somali communities.
Al Shabaab militants kidnapped four World Health Organization aid workers in Gedo region in southwestern Somalia on April 3. The militant group also targeted aid workers during the 2011 famine, which caused more than 260,000 deaths. Al Shabaab may specifically target Western aid agencies, however. The group claimed to distribute aid from UAE-based charities in several regions in south and central Somalia in the past month. (Related Reading: Al Shabaab and the Challenges of Providing Humanitarian Assistance in Somalia)
Aseman Airlines finalized a deal to purchase 30 aircraft from Boeing as part of Iran’s continued efforts to revitalize its commercial aircraft fleet.
The agreement is worth $3 billion and permits Aseman Airlines the right to buy an additional 30 737 aircraft in the future. Boeing is scheduled to deliver the aircraft to Iran by 2022. Iranian media outlets reported that Boeing will deliver 5-10 aircraft by 2019. The airline’s CEO, Hossein Alaei, is a former IRGC commander with longstanding ties to the current command echelon of the IRGC. The U.S. government must approve the deal for it to move forward.