Critical Threats Today - April 25, 2017

Zawahiri advised Muslims in Syria to reject foreign influences and prepare for a long-term guerrilla war. The timing of Zawahiri’s speech may be intended to bolster al Qaeda's image as the sole defender of Syria’s Sunni population following U.S. statements indicating that there will be no change of strategy toward the Assad regime in the wake of the April 6 Shayrat strikes.

HoR president Ageela Saleh met with Government of National Accord (GNA) State Council president Abdulrahman Swehli in Rome. Both agreed to work together to solve the Libyan crisis. The HoR boycotted the UN-backed process to amend the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) for over a year in order to avoid legitimizing the GNA. The HoR has shown increased signs of willingness to participate in dialogue, including electing its own delegation to participate in the LPA talks. Increased HoR-GNA cooperation could move the political process forward and bring other boycotting Libyan players, such as the HoR-aligned Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar, into the political dialogue. [Related reading: Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya.]

Ansar al Islam, a Burkina Faso-based al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) associate, returned to its safe zone in the Fhero forest on the Malian-Burkinabe border. A joint French-Malian-Burkinabe force cleared this area of Ansar al Islam militants in early April. Ansar al Islam likely receives support from either the AQIM network or from the ISIS in the Greater Sahara faction. (Related reading:Warning from the Sahel: Al Qaeda’s Resurgent Threat)

Al Shabaab militants detonated a roadside improvised explosive device (IED) targeting Puntland military forces near Boosaaso in Bari region. The group could attempt to expand its presence in Puntland to strengthen ties with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen. Al Shabaab and AQAP likely maintain some channel of communication. AQAP shared sophisticated bomb-making technology that allowed al Shabaab to detonate a laptop bomb on a Somali airliner in February 2016. (Related reading: Terror Partnership: AQAP and Shabaab)

He called on Southern Movement members who are participating in the Hadi government to join the al Houthi movement, citing the disenfranchisement suffered by both factions since Yemen’s 1994 unification. This move builds on growing tension between the Southern Movement and the internationally recognized Hadi government, which lacks a constituency in southern Yemen. The al Houthi bloc sees a stronger Southern Movement as a wedge against the Hadi government and will support the Southern Movement’s goal of a more federated state in future negotiations. (Related reading: The Southern Movement Uprising)

Raisi called for the improvement of the government’s “management of the economy,” among other economic changes. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials have criticized Rouhani heavily for his failure to implement their vision for Iran’s economy. Raisi indicated that his economic reforms would align with the Supreme Leader’s vision by promising that “production and employment” would feature heavily. The Supreme Leader called for a renewed focus on production and employment at the start of the current Iranian year (March 2017 - March 2018). Raisi also stated that his administration would produce a report on anti-corruption efforts within the first six months of his term. Rouhani campaigned on the promise of fighting corruption, but has achieved limited results. A corruption scandal has followed the Rouhani administration since 2016 after leaks revealed that administration officials received exorbitantly high salaries.