These are the major events from April 26 for Iran and for al Qaeda operations in Yemen and Africa. Please see the Iran News Roundup, the Gulf of Aden Security Review, and the weekly Threat Update for more details.
Al Qaeda Global
ISIS affiliates in Pakistan may be attempting to gain recruits by attacking census collection officials.Libya
The Libyan National Army (LNA) seeks to bring its operations in Benghazi to a definite end in order to focus on its offensive in southwestern Libya.Horn of Africa
The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops allows al Shabaab to backfill the security vacuum in central Somalia.ISIS affiliates in Pakistan may be attempting to gain recruits by attacking census collection officials.
ISIS Wilayat Khorasan and Jamatul Ahrar, a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) splinter group, both claimed an attack on census officials in Kurram Agency in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas. ISIS Wilayat Khorasan may leverage its ties to Jamatul Ahrar to compete with the main TTP faction, which conducted its own attack on census-takers in early April. The census is unpopular with ethnic Pashtuns, who fear that it will be used to maintain Punjabi dominance in Pakistan. (Related Reading: Islamic State Threat Grows in South Asia at Pakistani Taliban's Expense)
The Libyan National Army (LNA) seeks to bring its operations in Benghazi to a definite end in order to focus on its offensive in southwestern Libya.
The commander of the LNA's special forces gave the al Qaeda-aligned Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC) a final chance to surrender before the LNA enters the last militant-controlled neighborhoods in the city. The BRSC and affiliated groups will continue to challenge the LNA in northeastern Libya, however. The northeast, where LNA commander Khalifa Haftar has promised stability, will remain the LNA’s main effort even as it seeks to expand westward. [Related reading: Backgrounder: Fighting Forces in Libya.]
The presence of Tunisian militants in Libya may cause domestic turmoil in Tunisia.
Tunisian authorities dismissed a Libyan political party’s call for the repatriation of a group of Tunisian ISIS militants currently detained in Libya. Tunisian citizens demonstrated against the return of fighters from conflict zones in early 2017. The Tunisian government’s refusal to repatriate may raise tensions with Libyan groups, which could disrupt cross-border commerce and threaten the livelihoods of Tunisians in the country’s economically marginalized and restive border region. (Related reading: AQIM And ISIS In Tunisia: Competing Campaigns)
The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops allows al Shabaab to backfill the security vacuum in central Somalia.
Al Shabaab took control of several towns in Hiraan and Galgudud regions in central Somalia after Ethiopian troops withdrew in late 2016. Al Shabaab most recently seized Elbur town in Galgudud region after Ethiopian forces left on April 3 and maintains pressure on Ethiopian forces in the area. The group ambushed a convoy of Ethiopian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops outside Beledweyne in Hiraan region on April 26. Al Shabaab will take control of more towns throughout Somalia if AMISOM forces begin the official withdrawal process scheduled to begin in early 2018. (Related reading: Ethiopian AMISOM Withdrawals)
Iran held Pakistan responsible for a cross-border militant attack, escalating rhetorically against the Pakistani state.
Fars News Agency reported that “terrorists” killed 10 Iranian border guards and injured three others in Mirjaveh county in Sistan and Balochistan province on the Iranian-Pakistani border. Army of Justice (Jaish al Adl) claimed responsibility, according to Tasnim News Agency. An Iranian statement carried in media reports said, “the Pakistani government bears the ultimate responsibility of the attack.” Pakistan has sought to remain neutral in the Iranian-Saudi conflict, but Pakistan's membership in the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance coupled with the renewed reporting of the deployment of a Pakistani brigade to Saudi Arabia to defend the Kingdom against Iranian-backed al Houthi-Saleh attacks from Yemen places Pakistan increasingly in the Saudi orbit. Pakistan sought to include Iran in the 41-member military coalition, which was established to counter terrorism and lists Iranian-backed Shia groups alongside ISIS and al Qaeda, but Iran has declined to join.
Russia is pursuing a political solution in Yemen through negotiations with the UAE and former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to secure naval basing in Yemen.
Russia seeks to leverage a role in settling the Yemeni civil war to obtain access to Aden, a former Soviet naval base, and al Hudaydah on the Red Sea. Basing in Yemen will allow Russia to project increased power into the region. The withdrawal of Saleh's forces from the al Houthi-Saleh coalition would collapse the al Houthis' ability to project force throughout northern and central Yemen. The al Houthis would be weakened and the move could change the calculus of internal factions, achieving part of an Emirati objective to limit Iran's influence in Yemen. (Related reading: Russia Moves to Supplant U.S. Role)