Iran News Round Up - October 2, 2017

Deputy Governor of Iran’s Central Bank Akbar Komijani met with representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on September 27 in Tehran. Komijani noted that during President Hassan Rouhani’s first term the economy has grown significantly. He also praised the single-digit inflation rate and a relatively stable exchange rate achieved during Rouhani’s tenure. IMF delegation head Catriona Purfield commended the Iranians for their 12.5% economic growth over the last year but also pointed out that the Iranians need to focus on non-oil sector growth. The IMF delegation was in Tehran for the annual Article IV review of the Iranian economy. The IMF report will be published in December 2017. (Mehr News Agency)

Iraqi Army Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Othman al Ghanimi met with Armed Forces General Staff Chief IRGC Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC Ground Forces Commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, and Artesh Ground Forces Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Nozar Nemati in Tehran to discuss the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum. Bagheri said that both sides have discussed military coordination and securing their shared borders in a statement following the meeting. Bagheri expressed that Iran is prepared for any kind of cooperation with Iraq. The increase of high-profile meetings between senior Turkish, Iranian, and Iraqi military officials before and after the Iraqi Kurdish referendum is notable. Al Ghanimi met with his Turkish counterpart General Huluski Akar on September 23. Akar is meeting with several high-profile Iranian military officials this week. (Fars News Agency) (Tasnim News Agency) (Reuters) (E) (ISNA) (Defa Press)

Conservative Parliamentarian Jabbar Kouchakinejad spoke with reporters about Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Shamkhani’s September 27 private meeting with Parliament regarding the Iraqi Kurdistan referendum. Kouchakinejad said that Shamkhani stated that Iran had formed a “union” with Turkey and Iraq and had conducted “intense negotiations” with Kurdish officials in order to prevent the referendum from taking place. Shamkhani stated that trilateral negotiations between Iran, Turkey, and Iraq will continue simultaneously amidst negotiations with “Kurdish groups and parties.” Shamkhani indicated that Iran, Iraq, and Turkey could conduct a “multitude of actions… in order to force the Kurds to pull back” from pursuing independence. Shamkhani provided sanctions against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) as an example of such an action. Shamkhani described the rejoicing of many Iranian Kurds during the Iraqi Kurdistan referendum as “normal,” and stressed that he did not have any worries about Iran internally. (Mehr News Agency) (Radio Farda)

First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri spoke with Turkish Prime Minister Ben Ali Yildirim over the phone on September 29. Yildirim discussed border security with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi on September 27 during a separate phone conversation. Turkish, Iraqi, and Iranian officials have been liaising with one another in the aftermath of the September 25 Iraqi Kurdistan referendum. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to visit Tehran on October 4 to discuss the Kurdistan issue with President Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Donya-e Eqtesad)

• Trilateral talks in the works between Iran, Turkey, and Iraq. Turkish Prime Minister Ben Ali Yildirim announced that Turkey, Iraq, and Iran may hold a trilateral meeting to discuss the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum. Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish General Huluski Akar are visiting Tehran this week to discuss the referendum. (Mehr News Agency) (Reuters) (E)

Iran’s Roads and Transportation Organization issued an order temporarily banning the transportation of oil products between Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan on September 29 in response to the September 25 Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum. The ban follows the Iraqi central government’s call for neighboring countries to not import oil from Iraqi Kurdistan. (Tasnim News Agency) (Reuters) (E)

Conservative Parliamentarian and former Minister of Labor, Cooperatives, and Social Welfare Asadollah Abbasi stressed that Iran should not allow “American sabotage” of the nuclear deal to change “Iran’s path” with the JCPOA. Abbasi also stated that if Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif wanted to exit the JCPOA in the event of a U.S. withdrawal from the deal, he would not be able to do so independently. Abbasi stressed that the Supreme National Security Council and Parliament determine Iran’s participation in the JCPOA. (ICANA)

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Yukiya Amano said that “more clarification would be helpful,” in reference to Section T, Annex 1 of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA). Section T, Annex 1 of the JCPOA addresses activities which could contribute to the design and development of a nuclear explosive device. Section T prohibits Iran from engaging in “designing, developing, acquiring or using computer models to simulate nuclear explosive devices.”

• Section T does not specify how it should be verified and does not reference the IAEA explicitly. The P5+1 negotiating bloc - the U.S., United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China - disagree regarding the IAEA’s role in the verification of Iran’s compliance with Section T. Russia has argued that the IAEA is not charged with verifying Iran’s compliance with Section T. The IAEA, the U.S. and others have argued that the IAEA should verify Iran’s compliance with Section T. Amano has stressed that his agency’s “tools” to verify Iran’s compliance with Section T are very “limited.” Amano has also underscored that the JCPOA does not require Iran to commit to “submit[ting] declarations, plac[ing] their activities under safeguards, or ensur[ing] access” by the IAEA regarding its compliance with Section T, unlike with other sections of the JCPOA. (Reuters) (E) (ISIS) (E) (Tasnim News Agency) (E)
  

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Iran would ratify the Additional Protocol in six years if the “U.S. Congress behaves,” during an interview in New York on September 27. Tehran signed the Additional Protocol as a part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but the Iranian Parliament has not yet ratified the agreement. Zarif stated that “[Iran] will become party to the Additional Protocol, provided the U.S. takes care of its responsibilities.” The Additional Protocol is an expanded set of requirements for information and access to help the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in verifying that states’ nuclear activities are strictly for peaceful purposes. President Donald Trump must determine whether to certify Iranian compliance with the JCPOA to Congress on October 15. (Bloomberg) (E) (YouTube) (E)

• Zarif: If U.S. withdraws from the deal, Iran has other options. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said if the “U.S. were to leave the [JCPOA], then Iran has other options,” during an interview with Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera initially tweeted that Zarif said, “if Washington withdraws from the JCPOA then so will Iran.” Al Jazeera later deleted the tweet and posted the correct version of Zarif’s statement. (Fars News Agency)

IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami said that Iranians did not base their lives “upon engagement with America,” and stressed that Iranians’ lives are “independent” of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He claimed that a U.S. violation of the JCPOA would be “an answer to [Iranians’] prayers because without the JCPOA, we can progress more freely.” Salami made the comments at a September 28 memorial service for IRGC member Mohsen Hojaji, who was captured and beheaded by ISIS in Syria on August 9. (Mehr News Agency)

Frederick Kagan discusses the inherent weaknesses in the Russo-Iranian alliance in, “The Moscow-Tehran Axis is a Coalition of the Weak.”