Key Takeaways:

  1. Al Shabaab demonstrated improved improvised explosive device capabilities with a massive bombing in Mogadishu on October 14. The attack killed over 300 people and wounded over 400 others, making it the highest-casualty attack since the al Qaeda affiliate’s inception. The attack is part of al Shabaab’s campaign to destabilize the Somali Federal Government. Hundreds of Somalis demonstrated against al Shabaab following the attack, which the group has not yet claimed. [See CTP’s latest map of al Shabaab’s area of operations in Somalia for October 2017.]
  2. Southern Yemeni actors are pursuing independence. An Emirati-backed southern Yemeni political council formed a national assembly to represent southern Yemen. The body’s formation is a major blow against the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which has been unable to hold a session of parliament since 2015. The council also intends to hold an independence referendum for southern Yemen. The fragmentation of the Yemeni state undermines U.S. policy, which seeks a unified Yemen to limit Iranian regional influence and counter al Qaeda in the Arabia Peninsula. [Read more in “Warning Update: Fracturing of the Yemeni state.”]
  3. A would-be strongman is advancing toward Libya’s capital as the UN-led peace process stalls. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whose militia force dominates eastern Libya, is gaining influence in the northwest. Haftar’s advance coincides with the potential breakdown of UN-led talks, which stalled over a provision seen as intended to limit Haftar’s power. [Read about the implications of Haftar’s rise in “The General’s Trap in Libya.” CTP will release a recommended U.S. strategy for Libya in early November.]