Gulf of Aden Security Review - January 31, 2018

Yemen: Southern secessionists reportedly reach a deal with the Saudi-led coalition; Saudi-led coalition reports al Houthi missile fired at Riyadh failed to launch; anti-al Houthi forces push into last al Houthi stronghold in Taiz city; al Mahrah governor bans establishment of religious centers outside of approved areas

Horn of Africa: Senior Kenyan opposition leader claims to survive an assassination attempt; al Shabaab captures surveillance drone in Kismayo city; Jubbaland President cracks down on opposition MPs

Yemen Security Brief

The Transitional Political Council of the South (STC) is rumored to have reached a deal with the Saudi-led coalition on January 30. The reported deal would grant southern Yemen more autonomy and establish an independent military but keep the south under President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s authority. The reported deal also stipulates that the Hadi government is allowed to resume its functions in the interim while the STC and coalition establish a government of technocrats. Hadi government forces will also be allowed to temporarily return to their bases in Yemen to recover from recent clashes but are required to vacate the south. Salafi militias facilitated prisoner exchanges and allowed Hadi government forces to enter some military bases in Aden on January 30 and 31. The STC effectively established control over Aden and confined the internationally recognized government of Prime Minister Ahmed bin Daghir to the Ma’ashiq Presidential Palace on January 29.^[1] 

Saudi-led coalition Spokesman Turki al Maliki stated on January 31 that an al Houthi ballistic missile launched on January 30 fell in the desert in northern Yemen. The al Houthi movement claimed to launch a Borkan-H2 long-range ballistic missile targeting Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on January 30.^[2]

Anti-al Houthi forces advanced further east into Taiz city, central Yemen than at any time prior the start of the civil war on January 30. Anti-al Houthi forces pushed into the al Houthi movement’s last stronghold in Taiz city in the al Hawban area, eastern Taiz city. The Hadi government 22nd Mechanized Brigade called on al Houthi forces to surrender themselves and their weapons. Saudi-led coalition-backed forces renewed an offensive to seize the remaining areas of Taiz city held by the al Houthi movement on January 25.^[3]

Al Mahrah Governor Rajeh Bakrit banned the establishment of religious centers except in “areas defined by local authority” in al Mahrah governorate, eastern Yemen on January 30. Demonstrators protested the establishment of Salafi centers throughout January, calling them extremist religious centers. Bakrit and a Saudi delegation reportedly met with a Salafi group to discuss the establishment of a Salafi center in Qishn city, al Mahrah governorate in early January. The meeting’s participants tasked Salafi Sheikh Yahya bin Ali al Hajuri, who previously ran the Salafi Dar al Hadith center in Dammaj, Sa’ada governorate, with overseeing the management of the center. Dar al Hadith is a well-known Salafi center that educated Salafi-jihadi militants in Yemen.^[4]

Horn of Africa Security Brief

Former Kenyan Vice President and opposition politician Kalonzo Musyoka claimed that political opponents attempted to assassinate him in his home in Nairobi, Kenya on January 31. Musyoka said the attackers fired two gunshots and detonated a grenade at his residence. The alleged attacks occurred after thousands of opposition supporters attended a ceremony to swear in opposition party National Super Alliance (NASA) leader Raila Odinga as “the people’s president” on January 30. Musyoka was supposed to be sworn in as Odinga’s deputy president but did not attend the event. Kenyan Interior Minister Fred Matiang’i banned NASA’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), a body that formed to oppose Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in October 2017, in response to Odinga’s inauguration. The government closed down several private television stations on January 30, citing alleged links to the NRM.^[5] 

Al Shabaab claimed to seize a surveillance drone in Kismayo city, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia on January 31. Al Shabaab has claimed to capture two American drones in this region in the past week. The origin of the drone is not confirmed.^[6]

Jubbaland State President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madhobe continued a crackdown on opposition members of parliament (MPs). Madhobe convened an emergency meeting with opposition MPs to discuss the arrest of MP Ahmed Abdi Hassan Tajir on January 30. Opposition MPs planned a vote of no confidence against Madhobe and his cabinet based on claims of incompetence and nepotism. Madhobe has since stripped opposition members of their immunity, causing five MPs to flee Kismayo to avoid arrest. Madhobe issued a travel ban to prevent opposition MPs from leaving Kismayo.^[7]