Congo War Security Review, February 26, 2025

Data Cutoff: February 26, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: Burundian troops and pro-Congolese government militia are moving north from the DRC-Burundi border with pro-Congolese government militia fighters toward the front lines with M23 on the RN5 road. The M23-aligned Twirwaneho rebels claimed to recapture Minembwe town in South Kivu and its nearby airstrip from the Congolese army (FARDC). Luxembourg vetoed a second round of EU sanctions on Rwanda.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Burundian troops and pro-Congolese government militia fighters have moved north toward M23 positions near Luvungi town via the RN5 road and routes near the Rusizi River since February 23.[i] French media previously reported that the Burundian army (FDNB) was withdrawing to defensive positions along the Burundian side of the DRC-Burundi border on February 21 after M23 threatened FDNB supply lines and the Burundian president said that he received security assurances from Rwanda.[ii] French state radio outlet Radio France Internationale reported on February 26, however, that FDNB troops who had retreated from Bukavu and additional reinforcements from Burundi had advanced north from the Burundian border and were within 6 miles (10 kilometers) of M23-Rwandan positions.[iii] Luvungi is 49 miles (80 kilometers) north of FARDC-controlled Uvira on the RN5 and 12 miles (20 kilometers) south of M23-controlled Kamanyola, the southernmost town along the DRC-Rwanda border.[iv] Luvungi is 18 miles (30 kilometers) north of M23’s furthest reported advance at Sange town, where Congolese media reported that the Congolese army and allied militias had re-entered on February 25.[v]

The M23-aligned Twirwaneho rebels claimed to recapture Minembwe town and its nearby airstrip from the Congolese army (FARDC) on February 26.[vi] FARDC clashed with Twirwaneho fighters in an attempt to take the town and claimed to kill four rebel commanders in a FARDC drone strike near Minembwe on February 25.[vii] The Twirwaneho rebels clashed with pro-Congolese government forces and claimed to initially capture Minembwe after Burundian troops withdrew from the area on February 21.[viii]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Luxembourg vetoed a second round of European Union (EU) sanctions on Rwanda on February 25 and said that it preferred to wait to adopt new measures against Rwanda until after the joint East African Community (EAC)-Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit takes place on February 28.[ix] The EU suspended defense talks with Rwanda and ordered a review of the EU’s agreements on mineral supply chains with Rwanda in an initial round of sanctions on February 24.[x] Rwanda claimed that the DRC will use international sanctions on Rwanda as a cover to refuse to negotiate with M23, and the Rwandan foreign minister said Kigali does not “fear diplomatic isolation” or sanctions during a media interview on February 26.[xi]