Congo War Security Review, February 27, 2025

Data Cutoff: February 27, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: M23 continued probing the Congolese army’s (FARDC) eastern flank in the Lubero district in northern North Kivu. M23 accused the Congolese government of perpetrating an alleged assassination attempt on Corneille Nangaa, the leader of M23’s political branch, during a public rally in Bukavu. Nangaa outlined plans to consolidate M23’s control in Bukavu and warned that M23 will continue its advance in South Kivu in the “coming days” during a speech at the rally.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Pro-M23 social media accounts reported that M23 moved through Vunyakondomi village in the Lubero district of northern North Kivu.[i] Vunyakondomi is located about 5 miles north Kipese town, which M23 captured on February 20 in an attempt to flank Congolese army (FARDC) positions on the RN2 road and in the district capital, Lubero town.[ii] Local media had reported that FARDC forces had deployed to Kasinjwe town—about 4 miles north of Vunyakondomi—to block M23’s flanking maneuver on February 23.[iii]  

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23 accused the Congolese government of being behind an alleged assassination attempt on the leader of M23’s political branch in Bukavu on February 27.[iv] Two successive explosions occurred near the speaking podium as Corneille Nangaa—the leader of M23’s political branch, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC)—finished speaking at a public rally.[v] The attack failed to injure AFC-M23 senior personnel but killed at least 11 people and caused widespread tension in the city.[vi] M23 leadership directly accused DRC President Félix Tshisekedi of ordering the attack and claimed that the rebel group had captured the FARDC perpetrators.[vii] Tshisekedi condemned the attack as a “heinous terrorist act” and implied that the attack was a false flag operation committed by a “foreign army illegally present on Congolese soil.”[viii]

AFC head Corneille Nangaa outlined plans to consolidate AFC-M23 control in Bukavu and warned that M23 will continue its advance in South Kivu in the “coming days” during a speech at a political rally in Bukavu.[ix] Nangaa said during the February 27 rally that AFC-M23 will appoint a new governor of South Kivu, two vice-governors, and a new mayor of Bukavu in the next two days.[x] Nangaa then said that M23 will take the South Kivu towns of Uvira, Fizi, Kamituga, and Shabunda in the “coming days.”[xi] AFC-M23 previously warned on February 25 that it would take Uvira if FARDC “continued targeting civilian populations.”[xii]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Nothing significant to report.