Congo War Security Review, March 3, 2025

Data Cutoff: March 3, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: Pro-Congolese government militias launched counterattacks against M23-aligned rebels that likely involved ethnically-motivated retaliatory violence against civilians in South Kivu. M23 repelled pro-Congolese government militia fighter attacks on M23 positions in South Kivu’s provincial capital of Bukavu. M23 advanced on the RN2 road and attacked Congolese positions southwest of Bukavu. Rwandan President Paul Kagame met with UPDF Chief of Staff Muhoozi Kainerugaba after Kainerugaba said he would establish a defense pact with Rwanda ahead of the meeting.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

M23-aligned rebels attacked pro-Congolese government militia fighter positions in South Kivu, sparking militia counterattacks and likely ethnically-motivated retaliatory violence against civilians. Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that Twirwaneho and Rwandan-backed RED Tabara rebels attacked pro-DRC fighters' positions in Bilalombili commune on March 1.[1] Twirwaneho is a predominantly Banyamulenge rebel group that is part of M23’s wider political coalition, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), and the UN reported in December 2024 that Twirwaneho and the Burundian rebel Group RED Tabara had become “AFC/M23 proxies” in South Kivu.[2] Bilalombili is about 5 miles south of Mikenge and 11 miles north of Minembwe, which Twirwaneho captured on February 25 and 26, respectively.[3]

Congolese media and Banyamulenge activist accounts claimed that FARDC-aligned fighters attacked numerous villages in the areas of Bibogobogo, Minembwe, and Mikenge towns on March 3.[4] Banyamulenge activists and pro-Bayamulenge politicians claimed on social media that the attacks targeted civilians, however, and that Twirwaneho is not present near Bibogobogo at all.[5] The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data database has not recorded armed group activity in Bibogobogo since 2023 or any Twirwaneho activity within 10 miles of Bibogobogo since Twirwaneho joined the AFC in December 2023.[6]  Militia fighters in South Kivu have targeted the Banyamulenge since at least the 1990s for their ethnic ties to Rwandan Tutsis.[7]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Pro-Congolese government militia fighters clashed with M23 in Bukavu, the South Kivu provincial capital, on March 3.[8] The militia fighters launched small arms attacks on M23 positions in the western part of the city along the RN2 road before retreating.[9]

M23 advanced 14 miles southwest from Walungu town on the RN2 and clashed with FARDC and pro-DRC fighters in the towns of Bwahungu and Muzinzi on March 1.[10] M23 had previously captured Walungu and the adjacent town of Kashanja on February 17.[11]

Major Political Developments

The French news outlet Le Monde reported that Rwandan President Paul Kagame met with Ugandan army (UPDF) Chief of Staff Muhoozi Kainerugaba in Kigali on March 2.[12] Kainerugaba said on social media on February 28 before the meeting in Kigali that he would sign a defense agreement with Rwanda, stipulating that “anyone who attacks any of our countries will have declared war on both countries.”[13] Kainerugaba also said that the Ugandan army would continue to carve out its own “sphere of influence” and would “capture the entire DRC border with Uganda” from Lubero district in northern North Kivu to the Djugu district of Ituri province.[14]

The UPDF deployed an unspecified number of troops to Mahagi, a border town with Uganda in the eastern DRC’s Ituri province that lies about 93 miles north of Ituri’s provincial capital, Bunia, on March 1.[15] FARDC and UPDF spokespeople told French media that FARDC requested additional UPDF troops and that the two armies signed an agreement to expand the joint-force's areas of operations to combat an ethnic Lendu militia group known as the Cooperative for the Development of Congo (CODECO).[16] FARDC and UPDF have been conducting joint operations known as “Operation Shujaa” to target Islamic State Central Africa Province rebels—locally known as the Allied Democratic Forces—in the eastern DRC since late 2021.