Congo War Security Review, March 7, 2025

Data Cutoff: March 7, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: Top officials from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) rejected the East African Community’s (EAC) and South African Development Community’s (SADC) proposal to merge regional peace processes. Pro-Congolese government militias continued attacks around the M23-controlled district capital of Masisi town in southern North Kivu. M23 withdrew from two villages on the western side of the Congolese army’s flank in the district capital Lubero town.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

M23 withdrew from two villages on the western side of the Congolese army’s flank in the district capital Lubero town. M23 withdrew from Kasugho and Katolo, located about 15 miles west of Lubero town, on March 7.[i] Congolese media sources provided conflicting accounts on whether M23 withdrew peacefully or whether FARDC and allied militias forcefully dislodged the rebels.[ii] M23 withdrew from another village between Kasugho and Lubero back to Kasugho on March 6 after the Ugandan army blocked their advance in the area.[iii]  Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that M23 is heading toward Bunyatenge, a gold mining region a 6-hour walk from Kasugho.[iv] M23 captured Kasugho town on March 2 in a likely attempt to flank Congolese army positions in Lubero town.[v]

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Nothing significant to report.

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Pro-Congolese government militias continued attacks around the M23-controlled district capital of Masisi town in southern North Kivu. The militia fighters attacked M23 positions in Lwanguba and Kanii on March 7 for the second straight day.[vi] Kivu-based TV channel Tazama RDC reported that M23 reinforcements arrived from Masisi to bolster the front lines on March 7.[vii] Kanii and Lwanguba are located 5 miles and 7 miles south of Masisi town, respectively. Masisi town is an important administrative center in southern North Kivu that controls a key section of the supply route on the RP529 road to the North Kivu provincial capital of Goma.[viii]

The Congolese army (FARDC) and affiliated militias attacked two additional villages in Masisi territory significantly north of the district capital. FARDC and allied militia fighters attacked M23 positions in Kivuye village, located 56 miles north of Masisi town, and Tambi village on March 7.[ix] Congolese media outlet Kivu Morning Post reported that the militias killed dozens of civilians during the fighting.[x] The villages are not operationally significant, but the attacks could be intended to divert M23 troops northward from Masisi town or be part of an advance toward the M23-controlled RP1030 road that connects the towns of Mweso and Kitchanga.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Top officials from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) rejected the East African Community’s (EAC) and South African Development Community’s (SADC) proposal to merge regional peace processes.[xi] The DRC’s government spokesperson stated that the Congolese government supported an “alignment” between the two processes rather than the creation of an entirely new process on March 6.[xii] A joint EAC-SADC summit recommended merging the two regional processes—the Kenya-led Nairobi process between the DRC and eastern DRC armed groups and the Angola-led Luanda process between the DRC and Rwanda—on February 8.[xiii] A meeting between the foreign ministers of the two blocs intended to formalize the merger was indefinitely postponed on February 28.[xiv] The Nairobi and Luanda process have stalled since 2022 and 2024, respectively.[xv] Congolese Foreign Affairs Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, stated that the EAC-backed Nairobi process was “the only way out for the M23” during a press conference on March 5.[xvi] Wagner’s comments are in line with previous statements from President Tshisekedi and other Congolese officials that direct negotiations with M23 are a red line.[xvii]