Congo War Security Review, March 18, 2025

Data Cutoff: March 18, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: The Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militias halted M23’s advance towards the Walikale district capital in western North Kivu. Burundian army (FDNB) troops and pro-Congolese government militia fighters continued their counteroffensive against M23 in northern Uvira district in central South Kivu. Rwanda severed diplomatic ties with Belgium. Foreign ministers from East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC) met to discuss the security situation in the eastern DRC.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Burundian army (FDNB) troops and pro-Congolese government militia fighters continued their counteroffensive against M23 in the northern Uvira district of central South Kivu. Congolese journalists reported on social media on March 18 that the pro-Congolese government militia fighters and FDNB soldiers recaptured “several strategic areas” of the Kaziba chiefdom.[1] CTP is unable to pinpoint the location of the pro-Congolese government coalition’s gains in the area. The journalists said that M23 no longer controls Kaziba chiefdom and that the group has suffered severe supply shortages.[2] Pro-Congolese government fighters previously recaptured the towns of Lwanguku—the administrative capital of Kaziba chiefdom—and the nearby town of Rurambo on March 15.[3] M23 initially captured the Kaziba chiefdom in early March.[4]

M23 repelled pro-Congolese government militia attacks on at least two villages near the South Kivu provincial capital of Bukavu. Pro-Congolese government militias attacked M23 positions in Nyatende and Nyangezi—located 6 miles and 15 miles from Bukavu, respectively—on March 17.[5] Congolese journalists reported on social media that M23 sent troops south along the RN5 from Bukavu to reinforce its positions in Nyangezi on March 18.[6]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

The Congolese army (FARDC) and allied militias halted M23’s advance towards the Walikale district capital in western North Kivu. FARDC and pro-Congolese government Wazalendo militias pushed M23 back 19 miles east from Mutakato to Mpofi—a village about 32 miles from Walikale town along the RP529—on March 17.[7] M23 had captured Mpofi from pro-Congolese government forces on March 16.[8] The Congolese media outlet Actualite.cd reported that FARDC sent reinforcements to Mutakato from Bunia—the provincial capital of Ituri province about 400 miles north of Walikale town—on March 17.[9] Congolese media reported that FARDC and allied militias clashed with M23 with FARDC and allied militias in Mpofi town and nearby villages as M23 was reinforcing its positions in Mpofi from Kibua, a village 20 miles east of Mpofi, on March 18.[10] The front lines between Nyabiondo and Kibua have become blurred since M23 abandoned Nyabiondo—a major crossroads town 34 miles further east of Kibua that M23 captured on March 9—to reinforce the frontline near Kibua and Wazalendo groups attacked M23’s flank near Nyabiondo on March 13.[11] Some Congolese media outlets report that M23 now controls only the 20 miles between  Kibua town to Mpofi and is sandwiched between FARDC forces in Mutakato and Wazalendo groups that backfilled M23’s vacant positions in Nyabiondo. Congolese media also report, however, that the Wazalendo groups in Nyabiondo are also vulnerable and not expected to hold their positions because the militia fighters are cut off between the M23 forces in Kibua and Masisi town.

M23 continued to strengthen its control around the Masisi district capital in southern North Kivu. M23 captured Kahanga and Miandja—10 miles north of Masisi town—after clashing with pro-Congolese government militias for two straight days on March 17 and 18.[12] Congolese media described the area as a “stronghold” for anti-Rwandan and ethnic Hutu extremist armed groups.[13]

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

Nothing significant to report.

Major Political Developments

Foreign ministers from the East African Community (EAC) and the South African Development Community (SADC) met to discuss the security situation in the eastern DRC on March 17.[14] The meeting was a follow-up from a joint defense ministers’ summit in late February and an EAC-SADC heads of state summit in early February.[15] The bloc discussed a “roadmap” to implement a ceasefire, secure M23-held areas, and strengthen multilateral forces’ and FARDC’s fighting capacity.[16] The bloc specifically recommended a military intervention to achieve these objectives.[17] The bloc also formally merged the Angolan-mediated Luanda process and the Kenyan-mediated Nairobi process into one framework.[18] The foreign ministers agreed to reconvene in one month before another joint heads of state meeting at an undisclosed time.[19]

Rwanda severed diplomatic ties with Belgium and gave Belgian diplomats 48 hours to leave Rwanda on March 17.[20]  The Rwandan foreign ministry said that Belgium had “constantly undermined Rwanda” and has “taken sides” with the DRC government with respect to the M23 rebellion in the eastern DRC.[21] The Belgian foreign minister called Rwanda’s measures “disproportionate” and expelled Rwandan diplomats from Belgium in response.[22]