Congo War Security Review, March 20, 2025

Data Cutoff: March 20, 2025, at 1 P.M. EST

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Key Takeaway: DRC President Félix Tshisekedi touted the viability of a potential US-DRC minerals-for-security deal during an interview with Fox News. Tshisekedi said he is open to renewed talks with Rwanda for a long-term peace agreement in an interview with French media. M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government militias near the Walungu district capital in central South Kivu. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed support for Congolese religious leaders’ plan to promote inter-Congolese dialogue.

Northern Axis: Lubero-Butembo-Beni-Bunia

Nothing significant to report.

Southern Axis: Bukavu-Uvira-Baraka-Kalemie

Pro-Congolese government militias attacked M23-aligned rebels in an area that straddles the Fizi and Mwenga districts in southern South Kivu. Pro-Congolese government militias attacked two M23-aligned rebel groups in Kawela—located roughly 4 miles north of Minembwe—for the second straight day on March 20.[1] Pro-Congolese government forces have clashed with M23-aligned rebels in Minembwe town and nearby areas since late February.[2]

Northwest Axis: Masisi-Walikale-Lubutu-Kisangani

Nothing significant to report.

Southwest Axis: Bukavu-Kamituga-Shabunda-Kindu

M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government militias near the Walungu district capital in central South Kivu. The Congolese news outlet Radio Okapi reported that M23 clashed with pro-Congolese government militias in the Burhale group on March 18.[3] The village of Burhale—the group’s administrative center—is located 10 miles south along the RN2 road from Walungu town. M23 captured Walungu town and nearby areas in late February, but Congolese media reports have indicated since that time that pro-Congolese government militia fighters have continued to contest the area.[4]

Major Political Developments

DRC President Félix Tshisekedi touted the viability of a potential US-DRC minerals-for-security deal during a television interview with Fox News on March 19.[5] Tshisekedi said that the US could help build the DRC’s fighting capabilities and levy further sanctions on Rwanda and M23 in exchange for US access to the DRC’s mineral resources.[6] The DRC is a leading producer of the critical mineral cobalt and has reserves of other critical minerals including lithium, tantalum ores, tin ores, and tungsten.[7] Corneille Nangaa, head of M23’s political branch, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), told Reuters on March 20 that “the Congolese people” would “block” any such deal.[8] The Wall Street Journal previously reported on March 19 that in early February Tshisekedi pitched the minerals deal to US President Donald Trump as a “formal security pact” to help fight Rwandan-backed M23 rebels.[9]

Tshisekedi said he is open to renewed discussions with Rwanda in an interview with the French news outlet Le Figaro on March 19.[10] Direct peace talks with Rwanda aimed at reaching a long-term peace agreement have stalled since December 2024.[11] Tshisekedi’s comments came after Nangaa told Reuters on March 20 that the Qatari-mediated ceasefire agreement between the DRC and Rwanda “doesn’t concern us” and that the group would “fight until our cause is heard.”[12] Qatar brokered a ceasefire agreement between the DRC and Rwanda following a trilateral meeting between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani on March 18.[13]

French President Emmanuel Macron met with a coalition of Congolese religious leaders in Paris on March 19 to discuss the leaders’ initiative to promote inter-Congolese dialogue.[14] Macron said that he “fully supports” the initiative on social media on March 19.[15] The religious leaders had previously met with African heads of state—including the presidents of Angola, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda—European leaders, Congolese officials and opposition politicians, and M23 leaders, who expressed support for the peace effort.[16]