Iran Crisis Update, December 10

December 10, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population. The Judiciary upheld a death sentence for 23-year-old Mahan Sadrat Madani on December 10.[1] The regime charged Madani with "waging war against God” after he was arrested for brandishing a knife and protesting. The regime has set this low standard for the death penalty because of how easily protesters can identify with Madani and the nine other demonstrators currently on death row. Iranian authorities likely intend  these executions to deter further protest turnout. This approach could easily backfire on the regime, however. Many protesters will likely sympathize with Madani and the others on death row, possibly inciting further popular unrest.

The regime’s disrespectful handling of the bodies of dead protesters could further inflame popular resentment. The regime has buried many killed protesters—including Mohsen Shekari, whom the regime executed on December 8—in unmarked graves to prevent citizens from gathering at their gravesites.[2] The regime has informed the deceased‘s families of the burial only afterward in many instances. This mistreatment sharply contrasts with the way Iranian leaders are treating Rostam Ghassemi—the former roads and urban development minister and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) brigadier general who died of cancer on December 8.[3] Iranian state media reported that the body of Ghassemi arrived in Tehran on December 10 after he died seeking medical treatment in China.[4] The regime has planned a funeral for Ghassemi on December 11, during which senior political and security leaders will likely gather to pay their respects. Iranian state media will likely cover the funeral and include remarks from senior officials. It is neither surprising nor unusual for the regime to observe the death of a senior IRGC officer in this fashion, but Ghassemi’s treatment seems jarringly tone-deaf considering the regime’s unnecessary and intentional mistreatment of dead protesters.

Prominent Iraqi Shia cleric and spiritual leader Ali al Sistani reportedly expressed concern about “the situation in Iran and the Shia religion,” according to reformist Iranian cleric Mohammad Ashrafi Esfahani on December 10.[5] Esfahani added that Sistani sent messages to regime leadership about the protests but has not received a response. Esfahani claimed that Sistani made these remarks to him while meeting in Iraq. Sistani is Iraq’s most senior Shia religious authority and has many followers across Iran and Iraq. It is unclear whether Esfahani accurately conveyed Sistani’s comments, but even the impression that Sistani supports the protesters and has criticized the regime crackdown could stoke further public opposition to the Islamic Republic and undermine the regime among religious Iranians. Certain segments of the Iranian clerical establishment have already criticized the regime over the death of Mahsa Amini and the protest crackdown, as CTP previously reported.[6]

Sistani has not formally commented on the protests thus far nor has he commented on past major protest waves in Iran. Sistani has occasionally issued public statements clarifying his position when individuals attribute comments to him.[7] Sistani could signal his approval of Esfahani’s claims silently if Sistani does not issue a public statement on the matter in the coming days.

Key Takeaways

• The Iranian regime is using protester executions to instill terror among the population.
• The regime’s disrespectful handling of the bodies of dead protesters could further inflame popular resentment.
• Prominent Iraqi Shia cleric and spiritual leader Ali al Sistani reportedly expressed concern about “the situation in Iran and the Shia religion,” according to reformist Iranian cleric Mohammad Ashrafi Esfahani.
• At least 15 protests took place in nine cities across nine provinces.
• The Karaj Neighborhood Youth seemed to successfully coordinate demonstrations.
• Deputy Interior Minister for Security and Law Enforcement Majid Mir Ahmadi stated that over 20,000 security officers have been injured in the protests.

Anti-Regime Protests

At least 15 protests took place in nine cities across nine provinces on December 10. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province[8]

• Size: Medium

Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province[9]

• Size: Small
• Protestor Activity: Silent march

Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province[10]

• Size: Small

Rasht, Gilan Province[11]

• Size: Undetermined
• Regime Repression: Basij members attacked protestors with batons

Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province[12]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Sanandaj Girl's Technical University students
• Protestor Activity: Barricaded a city street
• Regime Repression: Attacked students

Qom City, Qom Province[13]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Qom University students
• Notes: Students verbally confronted Member of Parliament Mojataba Zulnouri over the execution of Mohsen Shekari

Tehran City, Tehran Province[14]

• Size: Small to Medium
• Protestor Activity: Silent march during the day, anti-regime slogans at night. Fire lit in street at night.
• Regime Repression: Tear gas
• Area: Sattar Khan

Tehran City, Tehran Province[15]

• Size: Medium
• Area: Narmak

Tehran City, Tehran Province[16]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: University of Science and Culture students

Tehran City, Tehran Province[17]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Shahid Beheshti University students

Tehran City, Tehran Province[18]

• Size: Small
• Area: Chitgar

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Galehdar, Fars Province[19]

• Size: Small

Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province[20]

• Size: Small
• Protestor Activity: Fire lit in street

Tehran City, Tehran Province[21]

• Size: Undetermined
• Demographic: Allameh Tabataba’i University students

Tehran City, Tehran Province[22]

• Size: Undetermined
• Protestor Activity: Fire lit in street
• Area: Jannat Abad Neighborhood

The Karaj Neighborhood Youth seemed to successfully coordinate demonstrations on December 10. The Karaj group called for protests in several areas of the city--including the Gohardasht neighborhood--on December 10.[23] Social media users later documented protests in Gohardasht, suggesting that the Karaj group or affiliated entities successfully organized despite the ongoing regime censorship and heightened security presence countrywide.[24] The Karaj group later attributed protester turnout to its local field leaders, confirming one component of the structural organization of the group.[25] The apparent success of planned protests in Karaj could validate the legitimacy of the Karaj Neighborhood Youth among local demonstrators.

Unidentified individuals set fire to an office of the Basij Students Organization at Sharif University in Tehran on December 10.[26] The fire destroyed much of the office. Protesters have regularly thrown Molotov cocktails and other hand-thrown incendiaries at Basij bases throughout Iran since the protests began on September 16.

Deputy Interior Minister for Security and Law Enforcement Majid Mir Ahmadi stated on December 10 that over 20,000 security officers have been injured in the protests.[27] Mir Ahmadi added that some wounded have lost body parts or suffered from other serious conditions such as comas. Around 67 security officers have died.[28]

President Ebrahim Raisi attended a conference of the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council (SCCR) on December 10.[29] Raisi discussed the protests and socio-cultural affairs and called for the establishment of “dialogue centers.” The SCCR is a regime policy body that prepares resolutions on cultural, religious, and social affairs. Council members include Raisi, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei. Prosecutor General Mohammad Javad Montazeri stated on December 1 that Parliament and the SCCR would issue an opinion on the mandatory hijab law by December 16.[30] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met with the SCCR on December 6, possibly to discuss the subject.[31]

President Ebrahim Raisi condemned the killing of Sunni cleric Moulavi Abdol Vahed Rigi and called on the state security services to urgently identify those responsible on December 10.[32]

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing significant to report today.