Iran Crisis Update, January 15, 2023

January 15, 2023, 5:30 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Iranian protest organizers circulated calls on January 15 for the international community, and especially European parties, to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. Many well-known protest groups—even those who occasionally seem to disagree with one another—circulated these calls in unison.[i] The protest groups published these calls in Persian and English. This external messaging is consistent with and may reflect the priorities some protest organizers have set in recent days. The Iranian Neighborhood Youth Union emphasized its focus on expanding external outreach to the international community on January 13.[ii]

Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari stated on January 15 that Iran will receive an unspecified number of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia early in the next Persian calendar year (March 2023—March 2024).[iii] Heydari added that Iran is also purchasing air defense systems, helicopters, and missiles. Heydari is a lawmaker on the Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee. Acquiring Su-35s would advance Iranian leaders’ efforts to field an increasingly modern air force that is capable of conducting “offensive” operations and projecting strength abroad.[iv]

Key Takeaways

• Iranian protest organizers circulated calls for the international community, and especially European parties, to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
• Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari stated that Iran will receive an unspecified number of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia early in the next Persian calendar year (March 2023—March 2024).
• At least four protests occurred in four cities across four provinces.
• Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari stated that the state security services have seized approximately as many illegal arms in the past three months as they would ordinarily over two years.

Anti-Regime Protests

At least four protests occurred in four cities across four provinces on January 15. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Galikash, Golestan Province[v]

• Size: Small-to-medium
• Demographic: Supporters of influential Sunni cleric Mohammad Hossein Gargij
• Notes: Supports gathered outside Gargij’s residence to protest his January 12 summons from a special clerical court.

Bandar-e Mahshahr, Khuzestan Province[vi]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Workers
• Protester Activity: Strike and protest

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Tehran City, Tehran Province[vii]

• Size: Small

Gachsaran, Kohgilouyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province[viii]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Oil industry workers
• Protester Activity: Strike and protest

Protest coordinators and organizations have circulated calls for demonstrations and strikes on the following days:

January 16[ix]

• Type: demonstrations to commemorate the anniversary of the Shah leaving Iran in 1979
• Location: countrywide

January 19-20[x]

• Type: demonstrations
• Location: countrywide

Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari stated on January 15 that the state security services have seized approximately as many illegal arms in the past three months as they would ordinarily over two years.[xi]

Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei met with newly appointed Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan on January 15.[xii] Ejei emphasized the readiness of the judiciary to support the LEC. Radan presented a report to Ejei on the current condition and objectives of the LEC. Radan had a similar meeting with President Ebrahim Raisi on January 14.[xiii]

President Ebrahim Raisi met with officials from the Iranian National Gas Company on January 15 to discuss the natural gas shortages.[xiv] The regime has briefly closed various banks, public facilities, and universities in some provinces in recent days to reduce gas consumption.[xv] These gas shortages have reportedly reduced steel production significantly.[xvi]

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing significant to report today.

[i] https://twitter.com/UYI_fa/status/1614646158462263296; https://twitter.com/bmahalat_ir/status/1614677154033188865

[ii] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-january-13-2023

[iii] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/10/25/2837056

[iv] https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Images/News/Military_Powers_Publications/Iran_Military_Power_LR.pdf

[v] https://twitter.com/ICHRI/status/1614641102027374593?s=20&t=e_IUF8k0lyZ_tM4wPFIbkQ; https://twitter.com/ICHRI/status/1614640178248794113?s=20&t=GyqsWKrL_CRcp2B8nbkbRQ; https://www.radiofarda.com/a/summons-sunni-cleric-iran-gathering-supporters/32224172.html

[vi] https://twitter.com/bbcpersian/status/1614605389366177796?s=20&t=rv2Cf6JNH_Fxvo9CD-9LdA

[vii] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1614719278439346176?s=20&t=BCETHdCy5eD50uTmGvJRZA

[viii] https://twitter.com/ICHRI/status/1614689383348674560?s=20&t=yEoGXOmqePUJYd_Q-U34dg

[ix] https://twitter.com/bmahalat_ir/status/1614319626397323264

[x] https://twitter.com/Javanan_gilan/status/1613173107316908032?s=20&t=oZsy55H_foM3VXhy__9xNA

[xi] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/10/25/2836899

[xii] http://www.farsnews dot ir/news/14011025001005

[xiii] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-january-14-2023

[xiv] http://www.president dot ir/fa/141946

[xv] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-january-13-2023

[xvi] https://www.radiofarda.com/a/cut-gas-industry-steel-iran-shortage/32224103.html