Iran Crisis Update, November 15

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Protest activity increased significantly on November 15 to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the regime’s brutal crackdown on the Bloody Aban protest wave. These current protests are the most reported in a single day since CTP began publishing daily updates on September 28.[i] Protest coordinators and organizations have called for protesters to sustain these demonstrations across Iran on November 16 and 17.[ii] Protesters continue to demonstrate an extremely impressive amount of courage and determination despite the regime’s brutality and expanding censorship. Iranian political and security leaders likely expected their use of force to quickly quell the protests after a few weeks as they did in November 2019 and other previous protest movements.[iii]

The regime’s abuse and mistreatment of children is likely one of the factors driving these enduring protests. The New York Times published an article on November 14 detailing human rights violations that the regime is committing against arrested children.[iv] Security forces have killed at least 43 children in their crackdown as well.[v] The extent of the regime’s cruelty toward children may be new information to many observers in the West but is likely not to the Iranian protesters.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) will likely resume its campaign to expel US military forces from the region in the coming months. IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Baghdad on November 15 to meet with senior Iraqi political and proxy leaders.[vi] These Iraqi officials included President Abdul Latif Rashid and Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani. Ghaani discussed the presence of US troops in Iraq and the Iranian drone and missile attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan, among other issues.[vii] Forcing the American military from the region is one of Tehran’s greatest strategic objectives, and the installment of an Iran-friendly government in Baghdad will likely facilitate this effort. The IRGC will likely organize militia attacks against US positions and pressure Iraqi officials to seek the exit of American troops in new rounds of the Washington-Baghdad strategic dialogue. The perceived role of the US in stoking the protests and supporting anti-regime Kurdish militant groups in Iraqi Kurdistan may increase the urgency Iranian leaders assign to this effort.

Key Takeaways

• Protest activity increased significantly on November 15 to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the regime’s brutal crackdown on the Bloody Aban protest wave.
• The regime’s abuse and mistreatment of children is likely one of the factors driving these enduring protests.
• The IRGC will likely resume its campaign to expel US military forces from the region in the coming months.
• At least 54 protests took place in 36 cities across 24 provinces.
• Three security personnel may have died in the protests.
• President Ebrahim Raisi sent First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to Qom likely to unite influential clerics behind the regime and especially the Raisi administration.

Anti-Regime Protests

At least 54 protests took place in 36 cities across 24 provinces on November 15, a significant increase from prior days. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the locations below

Karaj, Alborz Province (population: approximately 1,592,000)

• Dozens of high school students were documented protesting on a Karaj city street.[viii]

Bushehr City, Bushehr Province (population: approximately 223,504)

• Over 50 protesters chanted "woman, life, freedom" and lit a fire on a Bushehr city street. Protesters appear to have created a barricade on the street by forming cars in a circle.[ix]

Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (population: approximately 1,599,000)

• Over 50 Azad University of Tabriz students chanted anti-regime slogans in vicinity of the university campus.[x]

Khomeinishahr, Esfahan Province (population: approximately 1,599,000)

• An undetermined number of Azad University of Khomeinishahr students protested on campus.[xi]

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (population: approximately 1,961,000)

• Over 50 protesters chanted "woman, life, freedom" in what appears to be a local Esfahan mall.[xii]
• Over 100 Esfahan Steel Company workers participated in anti-regime strikes and gathered in an unknown location in the vicinity of Esfahan city.[xiii]

Abadeh, Fars Province (population: approximately 59,116)

• An undetermined number of protesters set a fire on a Abadeh city street.[xiv]

Marvdasht, Fars Province (population: approximately 148,858)

• Over 100 protesters chanted "death to the IRGC" on a Marvdasht city street. One clip purportedly showing security personnel shooting inside a mosque.[xv]

Shiraz, Fars Province (population: approximately 1,566,000)

• Over 100 protesters chanted "this is the year of blood, Khamenei will be overthrown" on a Shiraz city square. Footage shows fires lit on other city streets. Other footage shows security personnel firing tear gas at protesters in different, undetermined locations in the city.[xvi]
• Over 100—and likely over 200—protesters gathered in the Valiasr subway station.[xvii]

Bandar-e Anzali, Gilan Province (population: approximately 118,564)

• Dozens of protesters chanted "woman, life freedom" on a Bandar Anzali city street.[xviii]

Lahijan, Gilan Province (population: approximately 101,073)

• An undetermined number of protesters chanted anti-regime slogans on a Lahijan city street.[xix]

Rasht, Gilan Province (population: approximately 679,995)

• Roughly 50 Rasht University student protesters chanted anti-regime slogans on the university campus.[xx]

Gorgan, Golestan Province (population: approximately 350,676)

• Dozens of protesters chanted “this is the year of blood, Khamenei will be overthrown” and marched down a Gorgan city street. Footage shows clashes shows young girls--likely protesters--screaming and running from security personnel.[xxi]

Hamedan City, Hamadan Province (population: approximately 554,406)

• Over 50 protesters marched on a city street.[xxii]

Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province (population: approximately 526,648)

• Over 50 female high school or university students protested and waved their headscarves on a Bandar Abbas city street.[xxiii]
• Roughly 50 protesters chanted anti-regime slogans on a Bandar Abbas street that evening.[xxiv]

Kerman City, Kerman Province (population: approximately 537,718)

• Dozens of high school students reportedly did not attend class and chanted anti-regime slogans at an undetermined location in Kerman city.[xxv]

Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province (population: approximately 946,651)

• Over 100 Razi University of Kermanshah students protested on the university campus.[xxvi]

Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi (population: approximately 3,00,000)

• Over 50 protesters chanted "this is the year of blood, Khamenei will be overthrown" and marched on a city street.[xxvii]

Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province (population: approximately 1,185,000)

• Over 100 Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz student protesters participated in anti-regime protests on the university campus.[xxviii]

Izeh, Khuzestan Province (population: approximately 119,339)

• Over 100 protesters chanting "death to Khamenei." One still image shows female protesters gathered on an Izeh city street without headscarves. Security personnel seemed to have fired tear gas at protesters in attempt to disperse crowds.[xxix]

Saghez, Kurdistan Province (population: approximately 165,258)

• Dozens of protests captured demonstrating on a city street. Some social media users reported that security personnel fired at protesters, although no available footage exists to corroborate this. Other footage shows fires lit on Saghez city streets.[xxx]

Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (population: approximately 461,000)

• Over 50 Kurdistan University students and marched chanting anti-regime slogans on what appears to be a university campus.[xxxi]
• Dozens of protesters were captured lighting fires on a Sanandaj city street later that day.[xxxii]

Babol, Mazandaran Province (population: approximately 250,217)

• Dozens of protesters ran from sounds of audible gunfire in a Babol city street.[xxxiii]

Ghaem Shahr, Mazandaran Provine (population: approximately 204,953)

• Over 100 protesters chanted "death to the dictator" and lit fires on a Ghaem Shahr city street.[xxxiv]

Bojnourd, North Khorasan Province (population: approximately 228,931)

• Over 50 protesters chanting anti-regime slogans on a city street.[xxxv]

Damghan, Semnan Province (population: approximately 59,106)

• Over 50 Damghan University students chanted "Woman, life, freedom" and marched on a city street.[xxxvi]

Konarak, Sistan and Baluchistan Province (population: approximately 28,685)

• An undermined number of protesters chanted "woman, life, freedom.”[xxxvii]

Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province (population: approximately 193,501)

• Hundreds of protesters marched in a Boukan city street. Some social media users described the crowds as exceeding one thousand protesters.[xxxviii]

Tehran City, Tehran Province (population: approximately 8,700,000)

• Dozens of protesters chanted anti-regime slogans in the middle of a street in the Shahrak-e Gharb neighborhood.[xxxix]
• Over 100 protesters chanted anti-regime slogans in an unspecified Tehran subway station.[xl]
• Over 100 protesters chanted anti-regime slogans at the Tehran Bazaar.[xli]
• Over 50 protesters chanted anti-regime slogans and lit fires on the street near the Sadeghieh subway station.[xlii]
• Over 100 protesters in Sadaat Abad neighborhood chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom” at an intersection.[xliii]
• Over 100 protesters chanted anti-regime slogans in an unspecified Tehran subway station.[xliv]
• An undetermined number of students from Parks Higher Education Institute of Art and Architecture chanted “this is the Aban movement; the dictatorship is over.”[xlv]
• Over 100 students from Islamic Azad University of Science and Research University chanted anti-regime slogans and protested on campus.[xlvi]
• Over 25 people chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom” in a subway car.[xlvii]
• Over 25 protesters seen joining hands and chanting “death to the dictator.”[xlviii]
• Over 50 protesters chanted “you’re a sleaze, you’re the pervert, I am a free-thinking woman” in the Tehran Shabadad subway station.[xlix]
• Over 100 protesters blocked an intersection.[l]
• Over 100 protesters blocked a city intersection and set a fire in the street.[li]
• At least 25 protesters chanted anti-regime slogans in an unspecified metro station.[lii]
• Over a half dozen protesters toppled a street sign in the vicinity of Sanat Square.[liii]

Yazd City, Yazd Province (population: approximately 529,673)

• Over 50--and likely over 100--Yazd University students chanted anti-regime slogans on what appears to be the university campus or a surrounding area.[liv]

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the locations below

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (population: approximately 1,961,000)

• Footage shows an undetermined number of protesters running from audible sounds of gunfire on an Esfahan city street. Footage also shows under a dozen protesters throwing objects at security personnel and blocking a city street. It is unclear if these two videos are from the same location. It is also unclear from available footage if this event meets CTP’s threshold for protest activity.[lv]

Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province (population: approximately 402,748)

• An undetermined number of protesters sang “Barayye” in a city street. It is unclear from the available footage if this event meets CTP's threshold for protest activity.[lvi]

Javanroud, Kermanshah Province (population: approximately 54,354)

• Footage shows heavy security presence, possibly suggesting that protests occurred on this date. One social media user circulated footage of security personnel firing live ammunition at their window for filming them.[lvii]

Doroud, Lorestan Province (population: approximately 121,638)

• An undetermined number of protesters gathered on a Doroud city street. It is unclear from the available footage if this event meets CTP's threshold for protest activity [lviii]

Arak, Markazi Province (population: approximately 520,944)

• Footage shows fire set to police car, possibly suggesting that protests may have occurred on this date.[lix]

Tonekabon, Mazandaran Province (population: approximately 55,434)

• Security personnel documented shooting at individuals who aren't featured in available footage. It is unclear from the available footage if this event meets CTP's threshold for protest activity.[lx]

Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province (population: approximately 168,393)

• Protesters set fire and blocked a strategic beltway connecting to other Iranian cities, suggesting that protests may have occurred on this date.[lxi]

CTP observed merchant strikes in the following locations:

• Karaj, Alborz Province [lxii][lxiii]
• Bandar-e Ganaveh, Bushehr Province[lxiv]
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan [lxv]
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province[lxvi]
• Najafabad, Esfahan Province[lxvii]
• Shahr-e Kord, Esfahan Province[lxviii]
• Shahin Shahr, Esfahan Province[lxix]
• Shirzaz, Fars Province[lxx]
• Marvdasht, Fars Province[lxxi]
• Kazeroun, Fars Province[lxxii]
• Rasht, Gilan Province[lxxiii]
• Bandar-e Abbas, Hormozgan Province[lxxiv]
• Kerman City, Kerman Province[lxxv]
• Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province[lxxvi]
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province[lxxvii]
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province[lxxviii]
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province[lxxix]
• Marivan, Kurdistan Province[lxxx]
• Kamyaran, Kurdistan Province[lxxxi]
• Baneh, Kurdistan Province[lxxxii]
• Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province[lxxxiii]
• Arak, Markazvi Province[lxxxiv]
• Esfarayen, North Khorasan Province[lxxxv]
• Bojnourd, North Khorasan Province[lxxxvi]
• Tehran City, Tehran Province[lxxxvii]
• Garmar, Tehran Province[lxxxviii]
• Parand, Tehran Province[lxxxix]
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province[xc]
• Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province[xci]
• Oshnavieh, West Azerbaijan Province[xcii]
• Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province[xciii]
• Sardasht, West Azerbaijan Province[xciv]
• Yazd City, Yazd Province[xcv]

Three security personnel may have died in the protests on November 15. Iranian state media reported the protesters shot an IRGC colonel in Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province and another IRGC member in Kamyaran, Kurdistan Province.[xcvi] Protesters also reportedly killed a Basij member with a Molotov cocktail in Shiraz, Fars Province.[xcvii]

President Ebrahim Raisi sent First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to Qom on November 15 likely to unite influential clerics behind the regime and especially the Raisi administration.[xcviii] Mokhber met with senior religious leaders to discuss economic and social issues.[xcix] Mokhber’s meetings come amid reports of disagreements within the clerical establishment over the regime protest crackdown, which CTP has reported previously.[c] The Iranian clerical establishment is a core constituency of the Islamic Republic but is notably not a monolith nor do its leaders universally support regime policies.

Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei stated that citizens may constructively criticize the regime so long as they “do not insult, humiliate, and destroy” on November 15.[ci] Ejei also emphasized the importance of “explanatory jihad,” which refers to the regime communicating its ideology and narratives to Iranian youth to fight against the United States’ “soft war.”[cii] The Iranians use this term, “soft war,” to refer to the West’s perceived use of nonmilitary means, such as economic and psychological pressure and information operations, to erode the regime’s legitimacy, cultivate domestic opposition, and propagate Western values in Iran.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing significant to report today.