Iran Crisis Update, October 24

October 24, 6:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian calendar month of Aban (October 23-November 21, 2022). Some Persian-language accounts have described the ongoing protests as the continuation of the gasoline protests, which are often referred to as the Aban protests since they occurred primarily from November 15-19, 2019.[i] Estimates of civilians killed by the state security services in November 2019 range from 304 to 1,500.[ii]

Iranian security forces reportedly searched and beat several students attending the Sadr vocational high school in Tehran on October 24.[iii] The Education Ministry denied reports of violent clashes between security forces and students but acknowledged that school faculty searched and seized some students’ cellphones and that some students experienced blood pressure drops and required medical attention.[iv] The Education Ministry and the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) denied reports of student deaths.[v] The LEC blamed reports of unrest on clashes between ”thugs” in the vicinity of the Sadr high school.[vi] Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported a heavy security presence at the Loghman hospital in Tehran, where a Sadr student is reportedly being treated after she was hospitalized for her injuries.[vii]

University students chanted anti-regime slogans at a senior Raisi administration official attempting to engage student protestors on October 24. Raisi Administration Spokesperson Ali Bahadori Jahromi gave a speech at the Khajeh Nasir Tousi University of Technology in Tehran but left the premises after students continued to chant anti-regime slogans during his address.[viii] President Ebrahim Raisi had previously endorsed engaging with disaffected students on October 23.[ix]

Key Takeaways

• Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian calendar month of
• Iranian security forces reportedly searched and beat several students attending the Sadr vocational high school in Tehran
• Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 11 provinces.
• Iranian teachers continued to strike in solidarity with student protesters.
• A Tehran water official stated that Tehran Province may face water shortages within the next 100 days.
• An Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Telegram channel advertised a fake VPN service on October 24 likely to monitor and identify protesters trying to circumvent the regime’s internet restrictions.

Anti-Regime Protests

Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 17 cities in 11 provinces on October 24. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Shahr-e Kord, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province (Several dozen Shahr-e Kord University students protesting on campus)[x]
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (25-50 Tabriz University of Islamic Arts students protesting on campus)[xi]
• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (100-200 Azad Esfahan University, Esfahan University of Medical Sciences, and Esfahan University of Technology students protested gender segregation on their campuses)[xii]
• Falavarjan, Esfahan Province (25-50 Falavarjan Azad University students protesting on campus)
• Shiraz, Fars Province (Several dozen doctors protesting at an undetermined location in Shiraz; security forces reportedly opened fire on the doctors)[xiii]
• Kashan, Esfahan Province (Several dozen Kashan University of Medical Sciences students holding a sit-in on campus)[xiv]
• Hamedan City, Hamedan Province (100-200 Hamedan University of Technology students protesting on campus; 50-100 Hamedan Azad University students protesting on campus; several dozen Boali Sina Hamedan University students holding a mixed-gender sit-in; security forces reportedly clashed with Hamedan Azad University protesters)[xv]
• Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province (Fewer than a dozen youth lighting fires in Bandar Abbas streets)[xvi]
• Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province (50-100 Chamran University students protesting on campus)[xvii]
• Dezfoul, Khuzestan Province (Several dozen Dezfoul Azad University students protesting on campus)[xviii]
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province (Several dozen high school students protesting in their school)[xix]
• Babolsar, Mazandaran Province (Mazandaran University security director threatening an undetermined number of protesting students that “the force is waiting for you.”)[xx]
• Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province (50-100 Zahedan University of Medical Sciences students protesting on campus)[xxi]
• Tehran City, Tehran Province (50-100 Khajeh Nasir al-Din University students, several dozen Amir Kabir University students, 50-100 Azad Tehran University of Medical Sciences, 50-100 Sharif University, 50-100 al-Zahra University, and hundreds of Yadegar University of Tehran students protested on their respective campuses; Tehran University students also held a sit-in on campus; Security forces reportedly beat Sadr high school students protesting on campus)[xxii]

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following location:

• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (Undetermined number of youth lighting fires in Sanandaj streets)[xxiii]
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province (Undetermined number of youth protesting and constructing barricades in Mahabad streets)[xxiv]
• Ourmia, West Azerbaijan Province (Fewer than a dozen youth lighting fires and protesting in Ourmia streets)[xxv]

Iranian teachers continued to strike in solidarity with student protesters.[xxvi] Iranian teachers participated in strikes in at least nine cities in five provinces on October 24.[xxvii] The Education Ministry announced Ardabil Province school closures due to an “influenza outbreak.”[xxviii] Some schools in Ardabil Province may have closed due to teacher shortages amid the countrywide teacher strikes.

A Tehran water official stated that Tehran Province may face water shortages within the next 100 days on October 23.[xxix] The official’s office later released a statement denying the possibility of local water issues on October 24.[xxx] Water shortages have sparked previous anti-regime protest waves in Iran and could compound with the ongoing protests to fuel anti-regime sentiment and unrest.

An Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Telegram channel advertised a fake VPN service on October 24 likely to monitor and identify protesters trying to circumvent the regime’s internet restrictions.[xxxi]

IRGC Telegram channels echoed regime rhetoric slandering protesters’ motivations. An IRGC Telegram channel reposted allegations that Sharif University students damaged property and assaulted security officials while protesting on campus.[xxxii] Another IRGC Telegram channel denounced protests during Raisi Administration Spokesperson Ali Bahadori Jahromi’s press conference as ”hooliganism.”[xxxiii] The regime  Iranian proxy media continued to downplay the magnitude of protests and dismiss the notion that protests are a threat to the regime’s stability.[xxxiv]

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing significant to report today.