Iran Crisis Update, October 27

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Contributor: LJ Trevette

Protesters are establishing routines for when they protest and how they prepare. Protesters have established a routine of demonstrating on Wednesdays and Saturdays.[i] CTP has consistently documented increased protest activity on these days in recent weeks.[ii] Some Iranians have established routines of barricading streets ahead of protests.[iii] University students are increasingly engaging in regular and sustained acts of defiance such as boycotting gender segregation in educational facilities, especially on days when there are few other protests across Iran.[iv] These sustained protest patterns are facilitating coordination and pose an enduring threat to the regime and its security forces.

Iran may attack US, Israeli, or Saudi interests and targets in retaliation for the Shiraz attack. Senior Iranian political and security leaders blamed the Shiraz attack on Iran’s enemies, specifically the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and vowed to retaliate on October 27. These officials include Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raisi, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Hossein Salami, among others.[v] Khamenei’s senior military adviser, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, framed the attack and protests as part of the US-Israeli-Saudi effort to destabilize the Islamic Republic.[vi]

Bagheri and Raisi argued that the protests enabled the Shiraz attack, indicating that the regime may intensify its crackdown.[vii] This rhetoric matches the statements from Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on October 26, as CTP previously reported.[viii]

IRGC-affiliated media suggested that the individual who attacked the Shiraz shrine was Afghan, building on the narrative that the attacker was an Islamic State member. IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported that the attacker was 23-year-old Hamid Badakhshan on October 27.[ix] The last name implies that he was from Badakhshan Province in Afghanistan, although the name could be an adopted pseudonym. It is unclear whether this reporting is accurate. The Islamic State Khorasan Province—the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan—expressed support for the protesters on October 26.[x]

Protest activity will likely increase in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on October 28, marking four weeks since the regime’s brutal crackdown there on September 30.[xi] Large crowds are already reportedly gathering around the Makki Grand Mosque in Zahedan in anticipation of planned protests on October 28.[xii]

Senior Iranian Sunni cleric Maulvi Abdol Hamid and other local clerics may play an increasingly prominent role in leading protests in Zahedan. Abdol Hamid and regime officials have rhetorically clashed in recent days over the regime’s brutal protest crackdown in Zahedan, as CTP previously reported.[xiii] Another Iranian Sunni cleric in Zahedan, Abdol Ghaffar Naghshbandi, called on other Sunni clerics to clarify their stance on the protests on October 27.[xiv]

The regime is likely deploying security forces to Zahedan to preempt the protests and prepare to crack down. Social media accounts reported that anti-riot and military forces deployed in Zahedan on October 27.[xv] Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported that some of these security forces transferred to Zahedan from neighboring Kerman Province.[xvi] The regime shuffles its elite security forces around the country to where they are needed most during mass unrest.[xvii]

The Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Security Council fired the Law Enforcement Command’s Zahedan commander and 16 of his subordinates on October 27.[xviii] Iranian regime-affiliated media described the dismissal as the culmination of an investigation into Iranian security forces’ brutal suppression of September 30 protests in Zahedan.[xix] One Iranian outlet acknowledged that clashes between provincial LEC officers and armed gunmen resulted in the casualties and deaths of several bystanders, including worshippers at a local mosque, citing official legal documents.[xx]

Key Takeaways

• Protesters are increasingly establishing routines for when they protest and how they prepare.
• Iran may attack US, Israeli, or Saudi interests and targets in retaliation for the Shiraz attack.
• Senior Iranian leaders argued that the protests enabled the Shiraz attack, indicating that the regime may intensify its crackdown.
• IRGC-affiliated media suggested that the individual who attacked the Shiraz shrine was Afghan, building on the narrative that the attacker was an Islamic State member.
• Protest activity will likely increase in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on October 28, marking four weeks since the regime’s brutal crackdown there on September 30.
• The Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Security Council fired the Law Enforcement Command’s Zahedan commander and 16 of his subordinates.
• Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 23 cities in 12 provinces.
• At least 100 mourners and protesters gathered in Veysian, Lorestan Province to commemorate the 40^th day since the regime killed Nika Shakarami.
• Thirty-six security forces members have been killed in the ongoing protests as of October 27.
• The Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council called for countrywide, pro-regime protests on October 28 to condemn the US and Israel for their alleged roles in stoking the protests.

Anti-Regime Protests

Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 23 cities in 12 provinces on October 27. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Karaj, Alborz Province (Roughly 75 to 100 Gohardasht Azad University students participated in protests, chanting “students will die before we accept humiliation)[xxi]
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province (Undetermined number of protesters participated in evening anti-regime demonstrations. Roughly 100 Mashhad Al Zahra University students participated in anti-regime demonstrations in the vicinity of the university campus)[xxii]
• Ahvaz, Khuzestan (Ahvaz Azad University students chanting anti-regime slogans. Roughly 75 protesters on the street)[xxiii]
• Baneh, Kurdistan Province (Footage shows dozens of protesters clashing with regime security personnel, although this number is likely higher. Two protesters reportedly killed)[xxiv]
• Dehgolan, Kurdistan Province (Undetermined number of protesters clashed with security personnel while protesting on the street. Roughly hundreds of people attended the forty-day commemoration ceremony of the death of Reza Lofti, whom Iranian security personnel reportedly killed for participating in anti-regime demonstrations)[xxv]
• Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province (Roughly 50 people attending 40-day commemoration of Fuad Ghadimi's death, chanting anti-regime slogans)[xxvi]
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province (undetermined number of protesters chanting “death to Khamenei.” Audible sounds of gunfire)[xxvii]
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (Undetermined number of protesters participating in demonstrations. Shots reportedly fired at protests)[xxviii]
• Borujerd, Lorestan Province (Over 100 protesters demonstrated on streets and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom”)[xxix]
• Khorramabad, Lorestan Province (Over a hundred protesters attended the forty-day commemoration ceremony of Nika Shakarami’s death near Khorramabad, whom Iranian security personnel killed for participating in anti-regime demonstrations. Protesters chanted anti-regime slogans such as “we are all Nika, we are ready to fight” and “this is the year of blood, Khamenei will be overthrown.” The exact date of Nika’s death remains uncertain)[xxx]
• Arak, Markazi (Undetermined number of protesters chanting “death to the dictator”)[xxxi]
• Tehran City, Tehran Province (Over 100 Tehran West Azad University Students protested and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom.” Over 100 protesters participated in demonstrations in the vicinity of the Chitgar neighborhood)[xxxii]
• Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province (Undetermined number of protesters demonstrating on the street, chanting “Woman, Life, Freedom” in Kurdish)[xxxiii]
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province (Hundreds of protesters chanted anti-regime slogans and damaged government facilities, including an IRGC-affiliated bank. Security personnel reportedly shot and killed a woman in clashes with protesters. Protests reportedly commenced at the burial of a protester killed by Iranian security personnel, where crowds sang Kurdish songs)[xxxiv]
• Miandoab, West Azerbaijan Province (Undetermined number of protesters chanting anti-regime slogans on city street)[xxxv]

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (Undetermined number of protesters, unclear if footage is from tonight)[xxxvi]
• Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province (No footage of protests, but reports of violence against protesters)[xxxvii]
• Lahijan, Gilan Province (No footage of violence, but sounds of gunfire in existing footage)[xxxviii]
• Rasht, Gilan Province (Undetermined number of protesters chanting “death to Khamenei.” Audible gunshot in footage)[xxxix]
• Malayer, Hamedan Province (Footage shows over 100 university students chanting anti-reigme slogans, although it is unclear when these protests occurred). [xl]
• Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province (Footage shows beginning of protests and blockades imposed by protesters, but does not show protests occurring)[xli]
• Marivan, Kurdistan Province (Footage shows beginning of protests and blockades imposed by protesters, but does not show protests occurring)[xlii]
• Shahriar, Tehran Province (Undetermined number of protesters chanting anti-regime slogans on city streets).[xliii]

At least 100 mourners and protesters gathered in Veysian, Lorestan Province to commemorate the 40^th day since the regime killed Nika Shakarami on October 27.[xliv] Security forces blocked roads leading to the cemetery where Shakarami is buried and shot bullets and tear gas at protesters.[xlv]

Thirty-six security forces members have been killed in the ongoing protests as of October 27. Protesters killed an IRGC member in Tehran on October 26.[xlvi] Iranian media reported that protesters killed him with a hand grenade, although it is unclear whether they used a homemade explosive or an actual grenade. Protesters also shot and killed two Basij members in Amol, Mazandaran Province on October 27.[xlvii]

A cousin of Mahsa Amini told Al Arabiya on October 27 that the regime has placed some of her family under house arrest.[xlviii]

The Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council called for countrywide, pro-regime protests on October 28 to condemn the US and Israel for their alleged roles in stoking the protests.[xlix] The council is responsible for overseeing and coordinating various media and socio-cultural initiatives across the regime. The supreme leader appoints the council chairman.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

IRGC and proxy media continue to push regime narratives attempting to turn attention and popular support away from protesters. These channels claimed that foreign-backed protests prevented Iranian security forces from stopping the Shiraz attack.[l] IRGC media pushed a likely fake statement from the Islamic State claiming that the group attacked Shiraz in solidarity with protesters to negatively associate ongoing protests with violent attacks on civilians.[li]

[i]

[ii] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-26; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-22; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-15

[iii] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585662403823411206?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585661376265179138?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585653851830484995?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw;

[iv] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-23

[v] www.farsi.khamenei dot ir/message-content?id=51230; www.president dot ir/fa/140389; http://www.defapress dot ir/fa/news/552434; www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/08/05/2794490.

[vi] http://www.defapress dot ir/fa/news/552391

[vii] http://www.defapress dot ir/fa/news/552434; http://www.president dot ir/fa/140389

[viii] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-26

[ix] https://www.farsnews dot ir/news/14010805000247

[x] https://twitter.com/khorasandiary/status/1585186985592770560?s=46&t=LYlPdKz_HJcZFL1xI-xZcQ

[xi] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-september-30

[xii] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585704346469244928?s=20&t=iFmNwFIApIpr_JcZiy67wQ

[xiii] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-23

[xiv] https://twitter.com/SAMRIReports/status/1585733064960790528?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ

[xv] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585703211171717127?s=20&t=GP8ks14PMKluRWqwwPBkCQ; https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1585692372616314881; https://twitter.com/Sima_Sabet/status/1585692583115751449?s=20&t=zmfq0c-FQivf1QO9FEu2fw

[xvi] https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1585692372616314881?s=20&t=xS-omlwKv-t4YvTGp096Cg

[xvii] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/whatever-it-takes-to-end-it-irans-shift-toward-more-oppressive-governance

[xviii] https://www.isna dot ir/news/1401080603600/%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%B1%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86

[xix] https://www.isna dot ir/news/1401080603600/%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%B1%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86 ; https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/1688447/%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%88%DA%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3

[xx] https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/1688447/%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%88%DA%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3

[xxi] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585580459198763011?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585583218786451458?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw

[xxii] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1585666827035746307?s=20&t=nqd7HarnelixUy260mN-hg; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585688096234000384?s=20&t=M7qcnUuo9P4eklcGDxJKSg; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585673094429040642?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ

[xxiii] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585730965904576512?s=20&t=nqd7HarnelixUy260mN-hg; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585667077666471937?s=20&t=nqd7HarnelixUy260mN-hg

[xxiv] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585657749492453376?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585656296661028866?s=20&t=CkkD97A56csvIncn-p0sIw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585640229502754817?s=20&t=2JTchL0vtZnIvf0bRjEfAg; https://twitter.com/Hengaw_English/status/1585662101774893056?s=20&t=nqd7HarnelixUy260mN-hg

[xxv] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585636008778866690?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585641757777154049?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/Hengaw_English/status/1585665223301775361?s=20&t=E1vF1TVdF_6girS3vI6nZQ

[xxvi] https://twitter.com/Hengaw_English/status/1585636713451249665?s=20&t=8zx8f7t7AUfIqdqW6vijlw

[xxvii] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1585748136223440896?s=20&t=nqd7HarnelixUy260mN-hg

[xxviii] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585662965767880706?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585704586278363137?s=20&t=GbJ9j0kAQNao01StOiZtmg

[xxix] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585710960303820800?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585703728866361346?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585693798037848081?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ

[xxx] https://twitter.com/khoshnevisnaser/status/1585585854793359365?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585622051834011650?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585588268292341760?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw;  https://twitter.com/BARANDAAZOnline/status/1585610686301970432?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585585876645691396?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw

[xxxi] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585701612839964679?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ

[xxxii] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585710690597150720?s=20&t=65sfxesdIPBhZlKECXCQKg;  https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585607277578489857?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585604600983420929?s=20&t=icj8AvaRpcn0rzKijyBPwQ; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585591208964984832?s=20&t=0Cyti042LxERiOAWGsrmug

[xxxiii] https://twitter.com/Hengaw_English/status/1585720605281656832?s=20&t=ZhmIHE-0xfuzG9VAthoRZQ; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585688146402238465?s=20&t=GeY23Yyx9lHDiZC9D-xujw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585661376265179138?s=20&t=zGygTJimYw7yOO1TwB0YPg;  

[xxxiv] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585639112555393029?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585567358910926848?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585559555701936128?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw;  https://twitter.com/Hengaw_English/status/1585672437651341314?s=20&t=nqd7HarnelixUy260mN-hg; https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1585617629913440258?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585551047950565377?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw;   

[xxxv] https://twitter.com/YasharH3/status/1585779987025907713?s=20&t=73Mnnk9O9wfpSAsHwm4GOg; https://twitter.com/hra_news/status/1585716417680244739?s=20&t=73Mnnk9O9wfpSAsHwm4GOg; https://twitter.com/Vahid/status/1585709997639467016?s=20&t=73Mnnk9O9wfpSAsHwm4GOg

[xxxvi] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585746023695101952?s=20&t=nqd7HarnelixUy260mN-hg

[xxxvii] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585707005683339264?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ

[xxxviii] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585689342282174465?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ

[xxxix] https://twitter.com/ToukAlii/status/1585670356718813186?s=20&t=klZXyYjrIVSlQ6cR0hoblQ

[xl] https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1585642780126502918?s=20&t=8KsVRfo2sg-iTA5_SKd9WA

[xli] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585662403823411206?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw

[xlii] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1585656628157845504?s=20&t=JzOQhFoOqcvR9FKgY-C_sw

[xliii] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1585681701530918915?s=20&t=f_JIwBDvcKZgFTyWmuQftQ

[xliv] https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1585636739695054850

[xlv] https://twitter.com/javanane_t/status/1585618596176302080; https://iranwire.com/en/politics/109040-bullets-and-tear-gas-crackdown-on-mourners-at-nikas-grave-site

[xlvi] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/media/1401/08/05/2794743

[xlvii] www.isna dot ir/news/1401080503569

[xlviii] https://english.alarabiya dot net/News/middle-east/2022/10/27/Iran-places-Mahsa-Amini-s-family-under-house-arrest-Report

[xlix] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/08/05/2794748

[l] https://t.me/sabreenS1/62887

https://t.me/maymun5/12829

https://t.me/SEPAHCYBERY/54951

[li] https://t.me/SEPAHCYBERY/54945