Iran Update, April 14, 2023

April 14, 2023, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Iranian regime is attempting to manage rising tensions with Azerbaijan without conceding its strategic interests in the Caucasus. Iran and Azerbaijan have engaged in several rhetorical and diplomatic altercations in recent weeks, partially due to the Iranian regime’s disapproval of strengthening Azerbaijani-Israeli relations.[i] Supreme Leader International Affairs Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati published a statement on April 14 signaling the regime’s—and specifically Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s—aversion to continuing down a path of escalation with Azerbaijan.[ii] Velayati asserted that Iran has never been and never will be the initiator of a war. He added that Iran is concerned about Azerbaijan’s interests and security and titled his statement “I am also an Azeri,” likely to emphasize the cultural and historical overlaps between Iran and Azerbaijan. Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi separately discussed Azerbaijan in a Quds Day speech in Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province on April 14.[iii] Mousavi condemned Israel’s activities in Azerbaijan and stated that Iran desires “constructive” relations with its northern neighbor. Although Mousavi did not overtly threaten Azerbaijan, that he gave this speech in East Azerbaijan—an Iranian province that borders Azerbaijan—signals to Baku that the regime will not sacrifice its interests in the Caucasus to end the pattern of escalation. Mousavi additionally gave this speech on Quds Day—an annual Iran-sponsored holiday against Israel—to underscore that the regime will not tolerate Azerbaijan permitting Israel to use its territory to launch operations against Iran. The contrasting tone of Velayati and Mousavi’s statements reflects these officials’ different positions in the regime; Velayati is a diplomat and Mousavi is a military commander. It is unclear whether Iran’s approach to Azerbaijan will succeed in reducing tensions, however, given that Iran’s interests in the Caucasus are largely incompatible with those of Azerbaijan.

President Ebrahim Raisi gave a televised speech for Quds Day in place of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, possibly indicating Khamenei’s continued support for Raisi as Iran’s next supreme leader. Palestinian television channels broadcast a Quds Day message from Raisi in the Gaza Strip on April 14.[iv] CTP has not previously observed Raisi giving a televised address on Quds Day, making his address and Khamenei’s absence this year particularly noteworthy. CTP has not observed any indicators that would suggest Khamenei would be unable to deliver the speech, moreover. Raisi’s more pronounced role in this year‘s Quds Day festivities may indicate that Khamenei wants to help portray Raisi as capable of leading the Axis of Resistance. CTP has previously observed indications that Raisi is a top candidate to succeed Khamenei.[v]

Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is calling on Iran’s Shia population to consider an alternative and more moderate version of the Islamic Republic that would also limit the role of the supreme leader.[vi] Abdol Hamid outlined his idea of a truly “Islamic Republic” during his April 14 sermon, consistent with his prior criticism of the Iranian regime as neither “Islamic” nor a “Republic,” which CTP previously reported.[vii] Abdol Hamid characterized his ideal system as “moderately Islamic” and “close to a democracy” in which officials will be subject to the people’s approval. Abdol Hamid also stated that no official would have “absolute authority” in that system, strictly limiting state authority to the traditional Quranic interpretation that “only God has absolute authority.”

Abdol Hamid is challenging the postrevolutionary foundation of the Islamic Republic even though he is calling for an Islamic system. Former Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini grounded the current regime in the notion of the velayat-e motlagheh-ye faqih (Absolute Rule of the Jurisprudent).[viii] The supreme leader therefore has the absolute authority to not only implement God’s commandments but to legislate his own laws if necessary to preserve the Islamic nature of the regime. This interpretation departs from the traditional Shia notion of velayat-e faqih (Rule of the Jurisprudent), which as Abdol Hamid expressed means “only God has absolute authority” and the Shia cleric only has the authority to interpret law without legislating it.

Abdol Hamid is using the softer interpretation of Velayat-e Faqih to propose a more moderate version of the Islamic Republic to the Shia population. Abdol Hamid remains undeterred despite the regime’s repeated threats against him and his Sunni Baloch following, as CTP previously assessed.[ix] That he would risk his own and his following’s safety indicates that he is not simply attempting to carve out a permanent political space for his Sunni Baloch movement, but that he seeks to appeal to a much wider audience of observers. Not only does Shia tradition offer the flexibility to accommodate Abdol Hamid’s political vision, but there are moderate factions in the regime that can bring about such change. Abdol Hamid may be trying to appeal to the moderate Shia factions both within society as well as the regime to adopt his vision, especially once the regime transitions from the current supreme leader to the next.

Key Takeaways

• The Iranian regime is attempting to manage rising tensions with Azerbaijan without conceding its strategic interests in the Caucasus.
• President Ebrahim Raisi gave a televised speech for Quds Day in place of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, possibly indicating Khamenei’s continued support for Raisi as Iran’s next supreme leader.
• Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid is calling on Iran’s Shia population to consider an alternative and more moderate version of the Islamic Republic that would also limit the role of the supreme leader.
• The Iranian rial appreciated slightly from 509,500 rials to one US dollar on April 13 to 508,000 rials to one US dollar on April 14.
• Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement (PIJ) Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah and Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave separate speeches using the usual anti-Israel rhetoric that is common on the Iran-sponsored International Quds Day.
• Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr announced a freeze to all Sadrist Movement operations in response to a deviant faction of the Sadrist Movement named Ahl al Qadaa, the People of the Cause.
• Israeli news outlet Channel 11 reported that Israel has closed six kilometers of airspace along the Lebanese, Syrian, and Gaza border, likely to preempt a possible strike into Israeli territory from Iranian-backed proxies in commemoration of Quds Day.

Internal Security and Protest Activity

At least one protest occurred on April 14. CTP assesses with high confidence that one protest occurred in the following location:

Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan[x]

• Size: Small to medium
• Demographic: Zahedan residents protesting after prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid’s Friday sermon
• Notes: Protesters held a silent demonstration

Protest coordinators and organizations circulated calls for demonstrations on the following days:

April 15[xi]

• Type: Student demonstrations against the mandatory hijab law
• Location: Countrywide

April 16 and 18[xii]

• Type: Demonstrations to commemorate the birthdays of three killed protesters
• Location: Tehran City, Tehran Province and Karaj, Alborz Province

Sistan and Baluchistan Province Armed Forces Judicial Organization Chief Abol Fazl Mah Goli announced on April 13 indictments against the perpetrators of the September 2022 “Bloody Friday” massacre in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[xiii] Mah Goli stated that some state security personnel who shot at citizens “went to extremes.” Mahgoli’s announcement follows prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid’s meeting with the families of “Bloody Friday” victims on April 11.[xiv] Abdol Hamid met with these families, likely to invoke memories of the massacre and rally his supporters, as CTP previously assessed.[xv]

Economic Affairs

The Iranian rial appreciated slightly from 509,500 rials to one US dollar on April 13 to 508,000 rials to one US dollar on April 14.[xvi]

External Security and Military Affairs

Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement (PIJ) Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah and Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave separate speeches using the usual anti-Israel rhetoric that is common on the Iran-sponsored International Quds Day. Both speeches highlighted the strength and unity of the Axis of Resistance and vowed to support the Palestinian resistance against Israel.[xvii] Nasrallah discussed Hamas’s rocket attacks into northern Israel on April 6 and claimed that Hezbollah’s restraint and decision to remain silent while assessing the events that took place should worry Israel.[xviii] He also argued that Iran’s recent normalization with Saudi Arabia is a deliberate move to impede regional normalization among Arab states with Israel.

Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba Secretary General Akhram Kaabi gave a speech during Quds Day celebrations in Baghdad in which he threatened US forces in Iraq. Kaabi rejected the American presence in Iraq and called on US forces to withdraw immediately or be targeted in attacks. Kaabi also claimed that the US Ambassador to Iraq conducted acts of sabotage from a US military base disguised as the embassy.[xix] Kaabi‘s comments targeting the US Ambassador to Iraq is a notable intensification of rhetoric as compared to other speeches given by proxy leadership in Baghdad. Kaabi‘s statements mirror that of the 1979 Iranian Revolution that claimed the US Embassy in Tehran was a “den of spies“ used to engineer the 1953 coup.[xx] This designation of the US Embassy in 1979 was used as justification by protesters to storm the embassy. Iraqi protesters in 2019 similarly referred to the US Embassy in Baghdad as the “den of spies“ in reference to the 1979 Embassy storming.[xxi]

Iranian-backed proxy media released a dramatized propaganda video showing proxies from across Iran’s Axis of Resistance collaborating on plans for an attack on Israel.[xxii] The propaganda video follows the Axis’s uniform message of solidarity with the Palestinian resistance cause and cohesion across the Axis. Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy groups additionally staged a series of marches in Baghdad, Nasiriyah, Hillah, Maysan, Kirkuk, Khadimiya, and Sanaa.[xxiii] Iranian-backed Telegram channel Sabreen and Tura reported that tens of thousands of supporters had turned out to the Quds Day marches, however, footage and images from proxy-affiliated media shows that the demonstrators numbered in the low hundreds with a Quds Day event in Sanaa possibly numbering over 1,000 demonstrators.[xxiv]

Unidentified sources told Syrian-opposition outlet SyriaTV that the IRGC Quds Force moved the primary location for covert meetings from Damascus to Beirut in response to Israeli airstrikes in Damascus targeting Quds Force leadership.[xxv] The Quds Force decided to move following an Israeli airstrike targeting a Quds Force meeting in Qafr Souseh on February 19. According to the source, IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani determined that Syrian officers were responsible for intelligence leaks to Israel.

Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr announced a freeze to all Sadrist Movement operations in response to a deviant faction of the Sadrist Movement named Ahl al Qadaa, the People of the Cause.[xxvi] Ahl al Qadaa claimed that Sadr is the Imam Mehdi and called on its followers to attend I’tikaf, a practice of staying at a mosque for several days commonly at the end of Ramadan, with Sadr to pledge their allegiance to him.[xxvii] Sadr rejected the claims and claimed that the faction was corrupt.[xxviii] The Iraqi Judiciary announced that ”dozens” of Ahl al Qadaa members were arrested on April 14 as gang members promoting ideas contributing to discord and civil disruption.[xxix]

Israeli news outlet Channel 11 reported that Israel has closed six kilometers of airspace along the Lebanese, Syrian, and Gaza border, likely to preempt a possible strike into Israeli territory from Iranian-backed proxies in commemoration of Quds Day.[xxx] The no-fly-zone is in effect until Sunday April 16.[xxxi] Israel’s state-owned Channel 12 news also reported that Iron Dome systems had been redeployed across Israel under heightened security.[xxxii]