Iran Update, April 19, 2024

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate with one another to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Israel conducted retaliatory airstrikes targeting an Artesh Air Force base in Esfahan City, Esfahan Province, Iran, on April 18 in response to Iran’s April 13 drone and missile attack targeting Israel.[i] Western and Israeli media reported that Israeli aircraft over unspecified airspace outside Iran fired at least three missiles targeting an Artesh airbase in Esfahan. The Artesh is Iran’s conventional armed forces.[ii] An analyst with commercial satellite firm Hawkeye360 posted satellite imagery showing a S-300PMU2 surface-to-air missile battery position in Esfahan, adding that the strike may have damaged an S-300PMU2 surface-to-air missile battery’s target engagement radar.[iii] Russia provided the S-300 to Iran in 2016.[iv] Iranian state media and local Iranian social media users suggested that Israel targeted the Eighth Shekari Artesh Air Force Base.[v] One senior US official told ABC News that Israel targeted an Artesh radar site that is part of the air defense system protecting the Natanz Nuclear Complex, which isIran’s main uranium enrichment facility approximately 170 kilometers north of Esfahan.[vi] The International Atomic Energy Organization, along with Western and Iranian media, reported that Israel did not damage any of Iran’s nuclear facilities.[vii]

Iranian state media and local Iranian social media users separately reported air defense activity over Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province, on April 18.[viii] Iranian officials told the New York Times that Israel attempted to conduct a separate attack on unspecified targets in Tabriz.[ix] IRGC-affiliated media claimed that Iranian air defense systems intercepted a “suspicious object,” which caused sounds of explosions over Tabriz. The IRGC-affiliated media outlet added that Iranian facilities in Tabriz “have not been exposed to any harm.”[x]

Iranian officials and media downplayed the severity of Israel’s April 18 airstrikes, suggesting that Iran will not respond to the strikes “forcefully” and “painfully.”[xi] The regime has claimed it would respond to Israeli retaliation for the Iranian April 13 attack targeting Israel “forcefully” and “painfully” since April 16.[xii] Iranian officials and media claimed that Iranian air defense systems shot down small drones over Esfahan, not missiles.[xiii] Senior Iranian military officials, including Artesh Commander Maj. Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brig. Gen. Kiomars Heydari, claimed that Iranian air defense systems intercepted a “suspicious aerial objects,” which caused sounds of explosions over Esfahan.[xiv] Some Iranian media outlets claimed that Iran’s air defense systems shot down drones, despite Israeli reporting that Israel used long-range missiles to conduct the airstrikes.[xv] Israel has previously conducted attacks inside Iran using small explosive-laden drones.[xvi] IRGC-affiliated media circulated videos highlighting the “secure and peaceful” atmosphere in Esfahan, including near nuclear facilities and the Eighth Shekari Artesh Air Base.[xvii] IRGC-affiliated media similarly claimed that Tabriz, East Azerbaijan, was “in complete calm” hours after reports of explosions near the city.[xviii]

The IDF Air Force likely conducted airstrikes targeting Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air defenses and other positions in Daraa Province on April 18. The Syrian Defense Ministry reported that Israel targeted air defense positions and caused “material losses” in southern Syria at 1955 ET on April 18, approximately 90 minutes before confirmation of an Israeli attack on Iran.[xix] Local Syrian media reported that Israel targeted a SAA radar battalion near Qarfa, Daraa, and a SAA 112th Brigade position in Izraa City, Daraa.[xx] The IDF has previously targeted SAA air defenses and positions in Daraa Province in retaliation for rockets fired into the Golan Heights.[xxi] Israeli media reported in 2020 that the SAA’s 1st Corps, which is responsible for areas of southern Syria near the Golan Heights, is closely affiliated with Lebanese Hezbollah.[xxii] The IDF has said that it will not allow Hezbollah to establish a presence in southern Syria and that the IDF will hold the SAA responsible for Hezbollah activity in Syria. [xxiii]

Key Takeaways:

• Iran: Israel conducted retaliatory airstrikes targeting an Artesh Air Force base in Esfahan City, Esfahan Province, Iran, in response to Iran’s April 13 drone and missile attack targeting Israel.
• Syria: Israel likely conducted airstrikes targeting Syrian Arab Army (SAA) air defenses and other positions in Daraa Province.
• Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck military infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: US and Israeli officials held a high-level virtual meeting to discuss a possible Israeli military operation in Rafah.
• Political Negotiations: Unspecified US and Saudi officials told the Wall Street Journal that the United States is attempting to negotiate a deal in which Israel would recognize Palestinian statehood in exchange for diplomatic recognition from Saudi Arabia.
• West Bank: Israeli forces engaged fighters from several Palestinian militias, including Hamas and PIJ, during an operation in the Nour Shams Refugee Camp, Tulkarm.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Iraq: Faylaq al Waad al Sadiq Secretary General Mohammad al Tamimi criticized the Shia Coordination Framework for supporting Iraqi President Mohammed Shia al Sudani’s visit to Washington, DC.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Air Force struck military infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip on April 19. The 215th Artillery Brigade (162nd Division) and IDF Air Force struck rocket launchers and a weapons depot in an area in Beit Lahia from which Palestinian fighters had recently fired rockets at Ashkelon, southern Israel.[xxiv] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) launched two rocket salvos targeting Ashkelon on April 18.[xxv]

Palestinian militias conducted several indirect fire attacks targeting Israeli forces in the northern Gaza Strip on April 19. The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, mortared Israeli vehicles southeast of Zaytoun neighborhood in southeastern Gaza City.[xxvi] PIJ fired rockets targeting Israeli forces and Israeli positions east and southeast of Gaza City.[xxvii] Israeli forces are operating in southeastern Gaza City to conduct raids against Palestinian fighters and secure the Netzarim corridor, where Israeli forces have constructed a highway to support military operations in the northern Gaza Strip.[xxviii]

The Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) killed several Palestinian fighters in an unspecified area in the central Gaza Strip on April 19.[xxix] The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a secular leftist Palestinian group fighting alongside Hamas in the war, fired rockets targeting Israeli forces in the east of the central Gaza Strip on April 18.[xxx]

The IDF Air Force struck approximately 25 military targets to support IDF ground forces operating in the Gaza Strip on April 19.[xxxi] The targets included military buildings, observation posts, and rocket launchers.

Unspecified US and Saudi officials told the Wall Street Journal on April 18 that the United States is attempting to negotiate a deal in which Israel would recognize Palestinian statehood in exchange for diplomatic recognition of Israel from Saudi Arabia.[xxxii] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on January 10 that normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is still possible.[xxxiii] Saudi Arabia told the United States in February 2024 that it will not proceed with normalization with Israel “unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized.”[xxxiv] The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi officials have privately suggested that they would normalize ties with Israel if Israel gave verbal assurances that it would engage in talks on Palestinian statehood.

The United States is offering Saudi Arabia a “more formal” defense relationship with the United States, US assistance to help Saudi Arabia acquire civil nuclear power, and Palestinian statehood as part of the deal. Unidentified US officials claimed that this part of the negotiation is in its final stages. US officials argued that Iran’s attack on Israel on April 13 should be evidence to Israel that integration with Saudi Arabia can improve its defense against Iran. The Wall Street Journal noted that the deal may aid Israel in a potential exit strategy from the Gaza Strip. Several Arab countries have said that if Israel publicly makes progress in establishing a Palestinian state, they will participate in a post-war Gaza Strip.

US and Israeli officials held a high-level virtual meeting on April 18 to discuss a possible Israeli military operation in Rafah.[xxxv] This is the second such meeting to discuss Rafah since April 1.[xxxvi] US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi. US and Israeli officials agreed on the ”shared objective to see Hamas defeated in Rafah.”[xxxvii] US officials expressed concerns over the potential operation in Rafah, and the Israeli officials agreed to take these concerns into account and hold future discussions.[xxxviii] Unspecified US officials familiar with a similar meeting on April 1 said that Israel presented a plan to move 1.4 million civilians out of Rafah but that the Israeli plan excluded concepts for access to food, water, and other civil services.[xxxix] US and Israeli officials also discussed Iran’s attack on Israel and new US sanctions targeting Iran during the April 18 meeting.[xl]

PIJ launched a second salvo of rockets from the Gaza Strip targeting Ashkelon in southern Israel shortly after the first on April 18.[xli] CTP-ISW reported the first salvo targeting Ashkelon in the April 18 update.[xlii]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact. 

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Israeli forces engaged fighters from several Palestinian militias, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), during an operation in the Nour Shams Refugee Camp, Tulkarm.[xliii] Hamas reported that fighters from its battalion in Jenin were involved in clashes in Tulkarm.[xliv] The IDF reported that three Israeli soldiers sustained injuries during clashes with Palestinian fighters who used small arms and improvised explosive devices (IED).[xlv] Palestinian sources reported that Israeli forces killed at least five Palestinians, including a senior commander in PIJ’s Tulkarm Battalion.[xlvi]

Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least four locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on April 18, including multiple engagements in Nour Shams refugee camp.[xlvii] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fired small arms targeting Israeli forces near an Israeli settlement north of Hebron.[xlviii]

The United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated two entities on April 19 for fundraising on the behalf of two violent Israeli extremists in the West Bank.[xlix]The groups, Mount Hebron Fund and Shlom Asiraich, established crowdfunding campaigns to raise thousands of dollars for two men who the United States sanctioned in February 2024. The United States sanctioned the two men in February under an executive order that targeted those perpetrating violence in the West Bank.[l] The European Union separately imposed sanctions on four individuals and two entities for their connection to Israeli settler violence.[li]

The IDF responded to a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report on April 18 about the rise in Israeli settler violence in the West Bank.[lii] The IDF told CNN that Israeli soldiers who fail to protect Palestinians from settler violence or take part in such attacks face disciplinary action.[liii] The IDF conceded that its forces had witnessed some Israelis attacking Palestinians. HRW reported that the Israeli military has not protected Palestinians from settler violence and on some occasions participated in the attacks.[liv]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least seven attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on April 18.[lv]  Hezbollah targeted Israeli surveillance equipment in three attacks using unspecified weapons.

The IDF 869th Combat Intelligence Battalion (91st Division) identified Hezbollah fighters in Aita al Shaab, southern Lebanon, and directed an airstrike targeting them.[lvi] Hezbollah announced that one of its fighters died but did not provide further details.[lvii]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Faylaq al Waad al Sadiq Secretary General Mohammad al Tamimi criticized the Shia Coordination Framework on April 19 for supporting Iraqi President Mohammed Shia al Sudani’s visit to Washington, DC.[lviii] Faylaq al Waad al Sadiq reportedly has ties to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Asaib Ahl al Haq and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba.[lix] Tamimi previously threatened on March 27 to resume attacks targeting US forces if Sudani did not establish a timeline for US troops to withdraw from Iraq during his visit to Washington, DC.[lx] Tamimi accused unspecified leaders of the Shia Coordination Framework of becoming too concerned with politics and abandoning their efforts to remove US forces from Iraq. Tamimi also questioned their dedication to remove US forces from Iraq. Tamimi argued that Iraq cannot have a relationship with the United States while US forces remaining Iraq.[lxi]

An online shipping tracker confirmed that the IRGC intelligence gathering ship, the Behshad, returned to Bandar Abbas port, Hormozgan province, Iran, on April 18.[lxii] Bloomberg reported on April 18 that the Behshad left the Red Sea on April 4 to return to Iran.[lxiii] The Behshad provides the Houthi movement with real-time intelligence, enabling them to target ships that have turned off transponders.[lxiv] Western and Israeli media speculated that Israel would target the Behshad in retaliation for Iran’s April 13 drone and missile attack targeting Israel.[lxv]