Iran Update, August 29, 2023

The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates Monday through Friday. To receive Iran Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) with support from the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute launched an interactive map of Iran and the Middle East. The map depicts events in Iran that affect the stability of the Iranian regime, namely anti-regime protests and reported poisoning incidents. It also shows developments in Syria that jeopardize regional stability and pose threats to US forces and interests, including Iranian and Iranian-backed militia positions.

Key Takeaways

1. Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah blamed the United States for the ongoing protests in Syria and called on demonstrators to show leniency toward the Bashar al Assad regime. Nasrallah is the first Axis of Resistance leader to publicly acknowledge the protests.
2. Iranian-backed militants raised their readiness levels around Deir ez Zor City amid ongoing clashes between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and the Deir ez Zor Military Council in eastern Syria.
3. IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani suggested that Iran would take unspecified military action if the Iraqi central government does not disarm and relocate anti-Iranian regime Kurdish militias in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iranian Activities in the Levant

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout the Levant especially in Syria. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah blamed the United States for the ongoing protest movement in Syria and called on Syrian demonstrators to show leniency toward the Bashar al Assad regime.[i] Protests have spread throughout Syria, primarily in the south of the country, since August 16 in response to worsening economic conditions and poor governance by the regime. Nasrallah appealed to Syrians to be cooperative and patient with the Syrian regime. He made these remarks during a speech on August 28. Nasrallah is the first Axis of Resistance leader to publicly acknowledge the economic crisis and protests in Syria. The fact that Nasrallah felt the need to address these crises underscores their severity. Nasrallah blaming the United States mirrors pro-Syrian regime messaging about the crises in Syria.[ii]

Iranian-backed militias raised their readiness levels around Deir ez Zor City amid ongoing clashes between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Deir ez Zor Military Council (DMC) in eastern Syria. The SDF has been clashing with its primary subordinate military force in Deir ez Zor Province, the DMC, since August 27. Local tribes within the DMC declared full control of six villages within five kilometers of regime-controlled territory on August 29 following SDF withdrawals.[iii] Pro-regime forces, such as Lebanese Hezbollah and the National Defense Forces, raised the readiness of their forces on August 28 and 29 in the Deir ez Zor area for unspecified reasons.[iv] The militias have also reinforced most checkpoints along the Euphrates River, which splits SDF and regime-controlled territory, since the clashes began.[v] Local opposition media claimed the forces were told to raise their readiness against the backdrop of tension between the SDF and DMC but did not specify to what end.[vi] ISW previously reported that Iranian-backed militants deployed to SDF-controlled territory to conduct sabotage attacks aid the clashes between the SDF and DMC, likely as part of the Iranian effort to expel the United States from Syria.[vii]

Iranian Activities in Iraq

This section covers Iranian efforts to consolidate and expand Tehran’s economic, military, and political influence throughout Iraq. This section examines some of the many campaigns that Iran is pursuing to achieve this strategic objective. CTP will update and refine our assessments of these campaigns over time and in future updates.

IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani suggested that Iran would take unspecified military action if the Iraqi central government does not disarm and relocate anti-Iranian regime Kurdish militias in Iraqi Kurdistan. Ghaani reportedly met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on an unspecified date and told him that Iran would be forced to defend its national security if the Iraqi central government does not implement a security agreement that Iran and Iraq reached in March 2023.[viii] The agreement involves the Iraqi central government disarming and relocating the Kurdish militias in exchange for the Iran halting airstrikes into Iraqi Kurdistan and withdrawing troops from the border region, according to Qatari-owned, UK-based Al Araby Al Jadeed. CTP previously reported that Ghaani traveled to Baghdad on August 15.[ix]

Ghaani’s comments are consistent with other recent regime threats toward the Kurdish militias in recent weeks. Armed Forces General Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani warned that Iran would resume military operations into Iraqi Kurdistan on July 11 and August 28, respectively, if the Iraqi central government did not address Iranian security concerns.[x] Iran has repeatedly conducted drone, missile, and rocket attacks against Kurdish militias into Iraqi Kurdistan in recent years and especially during the Mahsa Amini protest movement in late 2022.[xi] Regime officials have repeatedly accused these groups of using Iraqi Kurdistan to facilitate operations into Iran and stoke unrest, such as anti-regime protests, there.[xii]