Iran Update, December 19, 2023

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israel has degraded Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias continued attacks targeting Israeli forces east of Jabalia.
2. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza City.
3. Palestinian militias are continuing to use the relative safe haven of the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate to attack Israeli forces south of Gaza City.
4. Palestinian fighters continued to conduct a deliberate defense against Israeli advances in Khan Younis. The IDF deployed an additional brigade to Khan Younis
5. Palestinian militias mortared Israeli forces in the central and southern Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades conducted at least two indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
6. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters seven times across the West Bank. Hamas continues to demonstrate solidarity with Palestinian militias in the West Bank.
7. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
8. Israel seeks a deal to push Lebanese Hezbollah forces “roughly six miles” from the Israel-Lebanon border to prevent possible LH cross border attacks, according to US and Israeli officials.
9. The Iraqi High Electoral Commission released preliminary results for the Iraqi provincial council elections. Shia parties, including those affiliated with Iran, won the largest count of votes in Baghdad and most of Iraq’s southern provinces.
10. The Jordanian Air Force conducted airstrikes on Iran-linked drug smuggling targets in Salkhad, Suwayda Province, Syria.
11. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced Operation Prosperity Guardian in response to Houthi attacks on international shipping around the Red Sea. The Houthi attack campaign targeting commercial shipping continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting Red Sea maritime traffic headed to Israel.
12. Fighters from the Balochi Salafi-jihadi group Jaish al Adl were likely responsible for an improvised explosive device attack targeting an IRGC Special Forces Brigade near Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israel has degraded Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the beginning of clearing operations in Jabalia on November 18.[i] The IDF reported on December 19 that it completely “dismantled” Hamas’ three battalions operating in Jabalia.[ii] About 500 suspected Palestinians fighters surrendered to Israeli forces in the Jabalia refugee camp, some of whom belong to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).[iii] Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF fought “hard battles” in Jabalia against Palestinian militias for more than two weeks until Israeli forces had killed over 1,000 fighters.[iv] IDF Brigadier General Itzik Cohen said that the fighting in Jabalia "resulted in the dismantling of the military capacity” of Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade.[v] The IDF estimated on December 19 that there are only a few militia fighters left in the Jabalia area.[vi]

Palestinian militias continued attacks targeting Israeli forces east of Jabalia. Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli advances east of Jabalia city. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed two attacks on Israeli forces using thermobaric rockets and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) in Tal al Zaatar, north of Jabalia refugee camp.[vii] The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of PIJ—mortared Israeli forces in the same area.[viii] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed a complex attack on Israeli forces advancing in the Jabalia refugee camp using small arms and RPGs.[ix] The al Nasser Salah al Din Brigades—the militant wing of the Popular Resistance Committees—claimed an attack on Israeli forces east of Jabalia city for the first time since December 13.[x]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza City on December 19. The IDF located an IED planted inside a clinic in Shujaiya in addition to finding other weapons in the area.[xi] The al Quds Brigades claimed that its fighters clashed with seven Israeli infantrymen on the Israeli forward line of advance in the neighborhood.[xii] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also said that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces in central Shujaiya.[xiii]

Israeli special operations forces operated inside a Hamas tunnel system in Gaza city on December 19. The Israeli defense minister said on December 12 that Israeli troops had descended deep underground to locate Hamas bunkers, command centers, communication rooms, and weapon storage sites.[xiv] Hamas published a video showing a dead Israeli working dog in a Hamas tunnel in Sheikh Radwan on December 15, demonstrating the presence of both Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters in the tunnels.[xv] Palestinian militia fighters have used tunnel shafts to maneuver through the strip and to ambush Israeli forces[xvi] The IDF has located about 1,500 tunnel shafts and routes in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip.[xvii]

Palestinian militias are continuing to use the relative safe haven of the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate to attack Israeli forces south of Gaza City. The al Qassem Brigades claimed three attacks using thermobaric rockets and RPGs on Israeli forces in Mughraqa, just north of Wadi Gaza.[xviii] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—mortared Israeli vehicles advancing north of Juhor ad Dik.[xix] The IDF reported on December 19 that Israeli forces destroyed a tunnel shaft south of Gaza City.[xx] Israeli forces conducted an airstrike targeting a large number of militia fighters who fled into a building.[xxi]

Palestinian fighters continued to conduct a deliberate defense against Israeli advances in Khan Younis on December 19. The al Quds Brigades shelled Israeli support sites and ground lines of communication (GLOC) as part of the Palestinian militias’ efforts to disrupt and harass Israeli GLOCs in Khan Younis.[xxii]  Palestinian militias previously targeted the Israeli GLOC on December 15.[xxiii] Palestinian fighters also attacked Israeli artillery units east of Khan Younis with mortars on December 19.[xxiv] The IDF moved elements of its Artillery Corps into the Gaza Strip on December 10.[xxv]

The al Qassem Brigades attacked Israeli infantry conducting clearing operations in urban areas of Khan Younis on December 19. Al Qassem Brigades fighters rigged a house to explode in Khan Younis, detonating it when Israeli forces entered the building.[xxvi] The al Qassem Brigades claimed that it trapped Israeli forces in a house and detonated anti-personnel charges and thermobaric shells in a separate incident.[xxvii] The al Qassem Brigades claimed both attacks killed and wounded Israeli forces but did not provide evidence for the claim. Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli infantrymen and vehicles in Khan Younis using RPGs, mortars, and rockets.[xxviii]

The IDF deployed an additional brigade to Khan Younis on December 19. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated that the IDF is expanding clear operations around Khan Younis by deploying an additional brigade and engineering force to the area.[xxix] The IDF 55th Brigade continued operations in Khan Younis by raiding weapons storage facilities, clearing houses, and engaging in close-range clashes with Palestinian fighters on December 19.[xxx]

Israel conducted an airstrike to kill a Hamas financier, Subhi Ferwana, who the IDF said was a vital resource for the al Qassem Brigades.[xxxi] The IDF reported that Ferwana was involved in transferring millions of dollars to Hamas and its al Qassem Brigades. The militia used the funds to pay salaries and build its military capabilities during the war.[xxxii]

Palestinian militias mortared Israeli forces in the central and southern Gaza Strip on December 19. Israeli forces have not commenced major, large-scale clearing operations in most of the central Gaza Strip at this time. The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli soldiers east of Maghazi in Gaza’s Central Governorate.[xxxiii] The al Qassem Brigades launched mortars at Israeli forces east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.[xxxiv]

The al Qassem Brigades conducted at least two indirect fire attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip on December 19. The al Qassem Brigades fired a barrage of rockets at Tel Aviv.[xxxv] The al Qassem Brigades also filmed its fighters launching rockets from the Gaza Strip at unspecified locations in Israel. [xxxvi] The al Quds Brigades and other Palestinian militias did not claim indirect fire attacks into Israel on December 19. The low rate of indirect fire attacks into Israel is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Israeli forces are likely degrading Hamas’ capacity to conduct indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel.

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters seven times across the West Bank on December 19.[xxxvii]  The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fired small arms and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in Azzun, west of Nablus.[xxxviii] Unspecified fighters "confronted“ Israeli forces during Israeli operations in Aqraba, southeast of Nablus, as well.[xxxix] The IDF demolished the Aqraba home of a Palestinian fighter, who attacked Israelis in the West Bank in August 2023.[xl] The Jenin Battalion of the al Quds Brigades separately fired small arms at Israeli forces in Jenin.[xli]

The IDF arrested ten individuals across the West Bank, including four Hamas fighters.[xlii]

Hamas continues to demonstrate solidarity with Palestinian militias in the West Bank. The al Qassem Brigades said that it launched rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel on December 19 to commemorate Palestinian fighters killed in the West Bank.[xliii] The al Qassem Brigades said that it wrote the names of militia fighters from the West Bank-based Lions’ Den militia and al Qassem Brigades on the rockets. The Lions’ Den and Hamas have expressed support for and alignment with one another throughout the Israel-Hamas war.[xliv] Hamas has repeatedly called for escalation against Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank, especially since the war began.[xlv]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 19.[xlvi] LH claimed two anti-tank guided missile attacks targeting Israeli military positions.[xlvii] The al Qassem Brigades fired a 12-rocket salvo targeting civilians in Kiryat Shmona.[xlviii] The group claimed that it conducted the attack in retaliation for Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip.

Israel seeks a deal to push LH “roughly six miles” from the Israel-Lebanon border to prevent possible LH cross border attacks, according to US and Israeli officials.[xlix] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that they seek to prevent LH from returning the positions along the Israel-Lebanon border that Israeli airstrikes have destroyed since October. Austin said Washington understood Israeli concerns and asked for “time and space” for diplomatic efforts to remove LH from the border. Netanyahu and Gallant agreed to give the Biden administration time for a diplomatic solution but added that they “wanted to see progress in the next few weeks,” according to Israeli officials. Israeli officials seek to use diplomatic measures to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which bars LH military units from operating south of the Litani River.[l]

The deputy chairman of the LH Executive Council said on December 19 that Israel is “too weak” to attack or “impose [its] conditions” on Lebanon. LH Executive Council Deputy Chairman Ali Damoush said that the “only option” to protect Lebanon is “resistance, not the international community, the United Nations, or the [UN] Security Council.”[li] The LH Executive Council is responsible for implementing the group’s policy in specific areas, including media, health, social, education, and political issues.[lii] It notably does not implement foreign policy.[liii] LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah manages LH’s external relations directly, rather than through the Executive Council.[liv]  Damoush said that Israel is “too weak” to carry out its “threats” to use military force to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701.[lv]

Israeli tanks fired at and artillery shelled a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) outpost in southern Syria on December 18 in retaliation for rocket fire from Syria toward the Golan Heights earlier that day.[lvi] The IDF said that unspecified fighters fired several rockets from Syria. The rockets did not land in the Golan Heights, however.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC) released preliminary results for the Iraqi provincial council elections on December 19.[lvii] Iraq held provincial council elections on December 18 for the first time since 2013.[lviii] Iraqi provincial councils are authorized to appoint and remove governors as well as approve provincial director-general positions and approve provincial security plans.[lix]

• Parties and coalitions aligned with the Shia Coordination Framework—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi parties—won the largest count of votes in Baghdad and most of Iraq’s southern provinces.[lx] The We Build Coalition, which is headed by Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri, won the most votes in Al Qadisiyah, Babil, Dhi Qar, Maysan, and Najaf provinces in southern Iraq.[lxi] These provinces are predominantly [lxii] Poor Iraqi Shia in southern Iraq have historically supported Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr, who has competed with Iranian-backed parties for political influence on several occasions in recent years. Sadr called for a boycott of the provincial council elections, claiming that participation in the elections “would reinforce the dominance of a corrupt political class.”[lxiii] Maysan Province recorded the lowest voter participation rate of 29 percent.[lxiv] The State of Law Coalition, which is headed by former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, won the highest number of votes in southern Iraq’s Muthanna province.[lxv] Maliki and his party are part of the Shia Coordination Framework.
• The Diyalatna al Watan Alliance, which appears to be affiliated with the Badr Organization, won the most votes in Diyala Province.[lxvi] Diyala is a diverse province that includes Shia and Sunni Muslims as well as various ethnic groups, including Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen.[lxvii] The Diyalatna al Watan Alliance reposted a statement from Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri thanking citizens for voting in the elections.[lxviii]
• The Nineveh Liahliha Party, which is led by former Nineveh Governor Najm al Jubouri, won the most votes in Nineveh Province.[lxix] Najm al Jubouri submitted his resignation as the governor of Nineveh on November 26.[lxx] IHEC barred al Jubouri from running in the provincial elections based on corruption charges brought against him by the Accountability and Justice Commission.[lxxi] The Shia Coordination Framework enabled Jabouri’s disqualification, as the coalition spearheaded a series of amendments to Iraq’s election laws in March 2023, one of which barred individuals charged with corruption from participating in elections.[lxxii] Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani appointed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)-affiliated Abdul Qadir al Dakhil as the acting governor of Nineveh on November 27.[lxxiii] The Kurdish Democratic Party won the second highest number of votes in Nineveh Province.[lxxiv]
• The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan won the most votes in Kirkuk Province.[lxxv] Kirkuk Province recorded the highest voter participation rate of 65 percent.[lxxvi]

The 28^th PMF Brigade deployed to Khanaqin, Diyala Province on December 19.[lxxvii] The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq established the brigade in 2014 and its founder, Jalal al Din al Saghir, has previously pledged allegiance to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[lxxviii] PMF spokesperson Sadiq al Husseini said on December 19 that the PMF would extend its “security alert” in Diyala Province for 24 hours to support security forces in the “post-general voting phase.”[lxxix]

The Jordanian Air Force conducted airstrikes on Iran-linked drug smuggling targets in Salkhad, Suwayda Province, Syria, on December 18.[lxxx] The targets facilitated drug smuggling from Syria into Jordan and the Gulf states. The airstrikes follow small arms clashes between the Jordanian forces and Iran-linked individuals trying to smuggle drugs and weapons through the Jordan-Syria border between December 12 and 18.[lxxxi] The weapons included rocket launchers, anti-personnel mines, and other explosives. Jordan previously conducted airstrikes in Suwayda targeting Iran and LH-linked targets tied to drug smuggling in May 2023.[lxxxii]

Jordanian officials have previously expressed concern about Iran-linked security threats beyond drug and weapons smuggling.[lxxxiii] The Jordanian armed forces shot down three drones that entered Jordan from Syria in August 2023.[lxxxiv] Jordanian officials linked the drones to Iran-backed militias in Syria. Iranian-backed militias in Syria often use these drones to fly drugs over the border, but the drones could also be used to conduct attacks on civilian and military targets inside Jordan, including US forces stationed inside the country.[lxxxv] Iran-backed groups have also used Jordanian territory to smuggle weapons into Israel and the West Bank.[lxxxvi]

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18 in response to Houthi attacks on international shipping around the Red Sea.[lxxxvii] A senior US military official stated that the Houthis have conducted one-way drone and missile attacks targeting 10 merchant vessels linked to over 35 different nations in recent weeks.[lxxxviii] Operation Prosperity Guardian will operate under Combined Maritime Task Force 153, which was established in April 2022 to improve maritime security in the Red Sea.[lxxxix] The United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain will support the US-led effort.[xc] Politico reported that ten more countries have signed onto the new maritime task force but that they do not want to be publicly named as participating in the operation.[xci] Austin encouraged the 39 members of Combined Maritime Task Force 153 to work with the United States to deter future Houthi aggression in the Red Sea on December 19.[xcii]

The Houthi attack campaign targeting commercial shipping continues to achieve one of its desired effects of disrupting Red Sea maritime traffic headed to Israel. The Chinese state-owned shipping company COSCO, which is the world’s fourth largest shipping company, announced it was suspending shipments through the Red Sea on December 19.[xciii] Shipping companies with a combined market share of over percent of global shipping have announced that they will no longer travel through the Red Sea in recent days in response to Houthi aggression.[xciv] 

Senior Houthi officials are continuing to threaten attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea.  Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam accused the United States of “militarizing” the Red Sea and claimed that the US-led coalition would not alter the Houthis’ support for Palestine.[xcv] Salam threatened that the Houthis would continue attacks in the Red Sea until humanitarian aid is allowed into the Gaza Strip.[xcvi] The conditions in which the Houthis would cease attacks are unclear given that humanitarian aid has entered the Gaza Strip on several occasions in recent weeks.[xcvii] Houthi Supreme Political Council member and key powerbroker Mohammed al Houthi falsely claimed on December 19 that the Houthis do not want to close the Bab al Mandeb to trade and that the Houthis only target Israeli ships and ships heading to Israel.[xcviii] Several of the ships that the Houthis have attacked in recent days were en route to destinations outside of Israel, such as Saudi Arabia.[xcix]

Fighters from the Balochi Salafi-jihadi group Jaish al Adl were likely responsible for an improvised explosive device attack targeting an IRGC Special Forces Brigade near Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on December 19. A 110th Salman Farsi Independent Special Forces Brigade support vehicle struck a roadside IED near Zahedan.[c] Iranian media stated that there were no injuries or significant damage to the vehicle. No group has claimed responsibility at the time of writing. Jaish al Adl conducted a two-stage ambush and raid targeting an Iranian police station in Rask, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on December 15, killing 11 Law Enforcement Command officers.[ci] Iranian officials blamed Israel for the December 15 attack.[cii] Iranian judicial authorities executed an unspecified individual in Sistan and Baluchistan Province on December 16 for allegedly cooperating with the Mossad to assist anti-regime militias in the province.[ciii] Jaish al Adl has previously conducted IED attacks in Iran, although such attacks are very rare.[civ]

The Iranian ambassador to Russia read a statement by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at a session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow on December 19.[cv] The CSTO is a Russia-led collective defense military alliance. Ghalibaf in the statement called for establishing a Palestinian state in Jerusalem to achieve regional stability.[cvi] Ghalibaf also stated that regional conflicts should be solved by regional powers and warned international actors not to get involved. implying that the United States should not involve itself in the Israel-Hamas war. The Belarusian, Kazakhstani, and Tajikistani parliamentary heads attended the CSTO session as well.[cvii]

Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani met with Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yoko Kamikawa in Tokyo on December 19.[cviii] The two discussed bilateral relations and the Israel-Hamas war. Bagheri called for an immediate ceasefire and claimed that ethnic cleansing is occurring in the Gaza Strip without providing evidence. Kamikawa emphasized the need to send humanitarian aid to the citizens of the Gaza Strip.