Iran Update, December 21, 2023

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. Israeli forces have expanded clearing operations to target Hamas’ Central Gaza Strip Brigade, as Israeli forces transition into holding operations in parts of the northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances toward the central Gaza Strip.
2. The IDF stated that it established “operational control” of Shujaiya after dismantling Hamas' battalion there. Palestinian militias other than Hamas continue to attack Israeli forces around Shujaiya and the surrounding neighborhoods.
3. Israeli forces continued engaging Palestinian fighters in the northern Gaza Strip, which is consistent with the nature of holding operations. The IDF announced that it plans to target the three seniormost commanders remaining in Hamas’ Northern Gaza Strip Brigade.
4. Palestinian militia fighters continued conducting a deliberate defense against Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis.
5. Hamas claimed that all Palestinian groups agree that they will not accept a hostage exchange with Israel until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
6. Palestinian militias conducted six indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The al Qassem Brigades fired a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv.
7. Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in seven locations across the West Bank. Hamas called for Palestinians to demonstrate across the West Bank on December 22 in support of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and for Palestinian militias’ victory against Israel.
8. Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 15 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
9. Iraqi state media, citing the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission, released preliminary results for the provincial council elections. The We Build Coalition, led by Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri, has won 43 seats.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces have expanded clearing operations to target Hamas’ Central Gaza Strip Brigade, as Israeli forces transition into holding operations in parts of the northern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 21 that it conducted an operation in the Bakshi neighborhood, south of Gaza City, targeting Hamas’ Nuseirat Battalion.[i] This battalion is part of the Central Gaza Strip Brigade, which CTP-ISW assessed remains combat effective at this time.[ii] The IDF stated that it plans to establish “operational control. . . in the center of the Gaza Strip in the buffer zone between the north of the Gaza Strip and the central camps.”[iii] Hamas maintains five geographical brigades in the Gaza Strip.[iv]

Palestinian militias tried to defend against Israeli advances toward the central Gaza Strip. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—and the al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed a combined attack on an Israeli tank using an improvised explosive device (IED) in Mughraqa, north of Wadi Gaza.[v] The al Qassem Brigades claimed four other attacks on Israeli forces and tanks in Mughraqa using anti-personnel munitions, anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades (RPG), and sniper rifles.[vi] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Hamas fighters are attacking IDF units south of Gaza City likely from relative safe haven in the Gaza Strip’s central governorate.[vii]

The IDF stated that it established “operational control” of Shujaiya on December 21 after dismantling Hamas' battalion there.[viii] Israeli forces have targeted Hamas’ ”core capabilities” in the neighborhood and plan to continue limited operations to destroy remaining Hamas fighters and military infrastructure.[ix] IDF officials stated that Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion has conducted ”almost no. . . attacks” on Israeli forces over the past week, according to an Israeli defense correspondent.[x] The correspondent reported that Israeli forces are conducting an ”operational hold“ in Shujaiya[xi] The al Qassem Brigades have not claimed an attack in Shujaiya[xii] Israeli forces destroyed the headquarters of Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion on December 15.[xiii] Israeli progress in Shujaiya and throughout the rest of Gaza City is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be in the final stages of its clearing operation in parts of the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias other than Hamas continue to attack Israeli forces around Shujaiya and the surrounding neighborhoods. IDF Arabic-language spokesperson reported on December 21 that Israeli forces are operating in Shujaiya, Daraj, and Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City.[xiv] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah—claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Shujaiya on December 21.[xv] The al Quds Brigades detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting Israeli forces east of Shujaiya on December 20.[xvi] The IDF faces a loose coalition of Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip—not just Hamas.

Israeli forces continued engaging Palestinian fighters in the northern Gaza Strip, which is consistent with the nature of holding operations. Israeli forces identified Palestinian fighters in al Shati camp and called in an airstrike on December 21.[xvii] Palestinian militias have not claimed an attack in al Shati camp since November 22.[xviii] The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades claimed multiple attacks on Israeli forces south of Jabalia City and in Jabalia refugee camp on December 21.[xix] The al Qassem Brigades claimed to use a Shawaz explosively formed penetrators (EFP) to target an Israeli tank north of Jabalia City.[xx] The IDF reported on December 19 that it completely “dismantled” Hamas’ three battalions operating in Jabalia.[xxi] Enemy fighters frequently attack holding forces during holding operations as the holding forces conduct defensive and offensive operations to degrade and destroy the enemy force’s military infrastructure. Holding operations allow the IDF to protect local populations by securing areas in the Gaza Strip against Hamas re-infiltration.

The IDF announced that it plans to target the three seniormost commanders remaining in Hamas’ Northern Gaza Strip Brigade. IDF Arabic-language spokesperson reported on December 21 that Israel has killed four of the seven senior brigade commanders in Hamas’ Northern Gaza Strip Brigade.[xxii] The three remaining are the overall brigade commander and commanders of the Sheikh Radwan Battalion and Zaytoun Battalion. Palestinian militias have consistently claimed attacks on Israeli forces in Sheikh Radwan as part of their defense of the greater Jabalia area.[xxiii]

The al Quds Brigades claimed to intercept an Israeli multirole drone in the northern Gaza Strip on December 21.[xxiv] The militia reported that the drone identifies locations and targets for Israeli warplanes in addition to having combat capabilities.[xxv] The IDF has not commented on the incident at the time of writing.

Palestinian militia fighters continued conducting a deliberate defense against Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis on December 21. The al Qassem Brigades mortared Israeli forces near the Zalal mosque, from where Palestinian militia fighters have conducted indirect fire attacks repeatedly since December 6.[xxvi] Militia fighters targeted Israeli tanks east of Khan Younis with anti-tank munitions.[xxvii]The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that its fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Khan Younis on December 21.[xxviii]

Palestinian militia fighters ambushed Israeli forces from a tunnel, which Israeli forces later destroyed, in Khan Younis on December 21.[xxix] The militia fighters threw explosives and fired small arms killing three Israeli soldiers. Israeli forces returned to the site and, with engineering forces, blew up the tunnel shafts.[xxx]

Hamas claimed that all Palestinian groups agree that they will not accept a hostage exchange with Israel until there is a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Hamas reported on December 21 that there is a Palestinian national decision not to move forward in hostage negotiations.[xxxi] Hamas rejected an Israeli proposal for a week-long truce in the Gaza Strip in return for the release of 40 Israeli hostages on December 20.[xxxii] Hamas and PIJ officials told Egyptian mediators that Israel must stop its offensive in the Gaza Strip before they discuss any potential deal.[xxxiii]

The al Qassem Brigades fired a large salvo of rockets at Tel Aviv on December 21.[xxxiv] The militia regularly fires rockets at Tel Aviv in response to Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip.[xxxv] The launch demonstrates that Palestinian militias have retained some rocket capabilities capable of reaching Tel Aviv, despite Israeli clearing operations. The IDF reported on December 21 that Israeli forces destroyed a rocket launcher with rockets loaded and aimed at Israel during clearing operations in Khan Younis.[xxxvi]

Palestinian militias conducted six total indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on December 21. The al Qassem Brigades and al Quds Brigades conducted four attacks into southern Israel, some of which targeted Israeli military positions.[xxxvii] The National Resistance Brigades—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—fired mortars at Sufa in southern Israel.[xxxviii]

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in seven locations across the West Bank on December 21.[xxxix] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that it conducted an IED attack targeting Israeli forces in al Marj, Qalqilya.[xl] Unspecified Palestinian fighters threw homemade explosives at the gates of the Beitar Illit settlement, west of Bethlehem.[xli]

Hamas called for Palestinians to demonstrate across the West Bank on December 22 in support of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and for Palestinian militias’ victory against Israel.[xlii] This is the second consecutive Friday that Hamas has called for demonstrations to take place in the West Bank.[xliii]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed fighters, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 15 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on December 21.[xliv] LH claimed four anti-tank fire attacks and one rocket attack on civilian targets in northern Israel.[xlv] LH also claimed five attacks on Israeli military targets.[xlvi]

The IDF conducted airstrikes strikes into Syria on December 21 in retaliation for unspecified militants launching four rockets into the Golan Heights.[xlvii] This marked the 19^th indirect fire attack from Syria targeting Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Iraqi state media, citing the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), released on December 20 preliminary results for the provincial council elections.[xlviii] Iraq held provincial council elections on December 18 for the first time since 2013.[xlix] The results show that political parties and coalitions aligned with the Shia Coordination Framework—a loose coalition of Iranian-backed political parties—have won the most seats so far.[l] These parties and coalitions, including the We Build Coalition, State of Law, and State Forces Coalition, have won 101 out of 285 seats.[li] IHEC has not yet published official seat allocation results.[lii] IHEC spokesperson Jumana al Ghalai announced on December 20 that IHEC still needed to count approximately six percent of the votes and that the election results could change after the count is finished.[liii] The Iraqi state media results only account for 275 of the 285 seat allocations.

The We Build Coalition, led by Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri, has won 43 seats.[liv] This coalition won the most votes in southern Iraq, including in Al Qadisiyah, Babil, Dhi Qar, Maysan, and Najaf provinces.[lv] The State of Law, which is headed by former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, has won 35 seats.[lvi] The State Forces Coalition, which includes parties headed by National Wisdom Movement head Ammar al Hakim and former Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi, has won 23 seats.[lvii]

National Wisdom Movement member Rahim al Aboudi said after the release of the preliminary results that the Shia parties will work together to develop a “true democracy” in Iraq and an Iraqi state that has an “administration [that is] is decentralized.”[lviii] The parties and coalitions aligned with the Shia Coordination Framework had previously announced that they would run on separate lists in the election but govern jointly after the election.[lix]

The two main Sunni parties that competed against the Shia Coordination Framework-aligned parties, which are the National Progress Alliance and the Sovereignty Alliance, have won 22 and 14 seats, respectively.[lx] The National Progress Alliance, which is headed by former Parliament Speaker Mohammad al Halbousi, won the most votes in the capital, Baghdad.[lxi] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Halbousi's removal from his post in November 2023 was part of political efforts to reduce the US military presence in Iraq.[lxii] The Sovereignty Alliance is headed by US-sanctioned and Iran-linked businessman Khamis al Khanjar.[lxiii]

Note: This chart does not include all parties and coalitions that have won seats in the Iraqi provincial council elections. It only includes the 12 parties and coalitions that have won the most seats as of December 21. Forty-five parties and coalitions have won council seats thus far, but most of these parties and coalitions have only won one or two seats. IHEC is continuing to count votes and has announced that the preliminary election results are subject to change.

US CENTCOM confirmed that unspecified militants conducted a rocket attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq, on December 20.[lxiv] The attack did not cause any injuries or damage to the base. Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve informed Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) of the point of origin of the attack. The ISF subsequently seized a flatbed truck that was modified to launch rockets near the point of origin. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that have attacked US forces in Iraq and Syria almost daily in recent weeks—has not claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing.

The Houthi movement is continuing to conduct an information operation that aims to frame any US response to the Houthi attacks on international shipping as an escalation. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on December 18 that the United States established a 10-nation combined maritime operation to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.[lxv] Houthi Political Bureau member Hizam al Asad claimed that the operation is part of US efforts to “militarize the Red Sea” during an interview with Iranian state media on December 21.[lxvi] Asad added that the United States is “unjustifiably escalating tensions,” which could drive the situation “out of control.” Asad warned that the Houthi movement is prepared to confront the United States if it “commits stupidity” and that the Houthis can surprise and harm its enemies “in various ways.” The Houthis have conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb since December 9.[lxvii]

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi thanked Kuwait for opposing normalization with Israel during a phone call with new Kuwaiti Emir Mashal al Ahmad al Jaber al Sabah on December 20.[lxviii] The two discussed bilateral relations. Raisi criticized the interference of foreign powers in the Middle East, specifically referencing interference in the Israel-Hamas war. The Kuwait emir said that Kuwait supporting the Palestinian people is “fixed and unchanged”.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the Israel-Hamas war during two separate phone calls with his counterparts from South Africa and Oman on December 21.[lxix] Abdollahian thanked South African Foreign Affairs Minister Naledi Pandor for her country’s “strong and clear” support for Palestinians.[lxx] Abdollahian praised the joint effort by the two nations to condemn alleged Israeli crimes. Abdollahian spoke with his Omani counterpart, Badr al Busaidi, about a lasting ceasefire.[lxxi] Abdollahian said that the United States bears responsibility for Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip. Busaidi stressed the need for a lasting ceasefire and humanitarian aid for citizens in the Gaza Strip.

Senior Iranian Foreign Ministry officials met with Turkish Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmed Yildiz in Tehran on December 20 and 21.[lxxii] Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Policy Ali Bagheri Kani discussed the Israel-Hamas war with Yildiz on December 20.[lxxiii] The two also discussed the need for unconditional aid in the Gaza Strip and preventing the alleged displacement of Palestinian civilians. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed bilateral relations and regional developments with Yildiz on December 21.[lxxiv]

Iranian Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan visited Rask, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on December 21 following recent anti-regime militant attacks in the province.[lxxv] The Balochi Salafi-Jihadist group Jaish al Adl conducted a two-stage attack on a police station in Rask on December 15, killing 11 Law Enforcement Command (LEC) officers.[lxxvi] Likely Jaish al Adl fighters also conducted an improvised explosive device attack targeting an IRGC Special Forces Brigade near Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on December 19.[lxxvii] Radan visited the police station that was attacked and thanked Sunni and Shia police officers for uniting to “defend the homeland.” Radan warned that Iran will take severe revenge against terrorists and claimed that Iran reserves the right to pursue terrorists “anywhere.” Radan additionally conducted an aerial visit of Iran’s southeastern borders and called on the Pakistani government to increase its border security efforts. Iranian military officials have previously pressured the Pakistani government to crack down on Jaish al Adl "safe havens and cells” in Pakistan.[lxxviii]