Iran Update, January 13, 2024

CTP-ISW will be publishing an abbreviated update today, January 13, 2024 and tomorrow, January 14, 2024, pending regional events.  We will cover major events on both days.  Detailed coverage will resume Monday, January 15, 2024.

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

1. The Iranian-backed Badr Organization announced the submission of a draft law that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq. This law aims to increase pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani and to force him to expel US forces from Iraq.
2. Israeli forces destroyed military infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip.
3. Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces in three locations across the West Bank.
4. Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
5. The USS Carney launched Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles targeting a Houthi radar site at Dailami Airbase near Sana’a.
6. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a rocket attack targeting US forces at the Conoco facility in northwestern Syria

The Iranian-backed Badr Organization announced the submission of a draft law that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq. This law is part of Iran’s decades-old effort to expel US forces from Iraq and the region. Conquest Alliance MP Faleh al Khazali said that the law is the result of “the Americans’ continued violations of Iraqi sovereignty.”[i] The United States has not violated Iraqi sovereignty because it is conducting self-defense strikes against militias firing at US servicemembers. Khazali announced a draft law on January 13 that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq.[ii] Conquest Alliance is the Badr Organization’s political arm in parliament. Eighty-eight parliamentarians signed the draft law, which is 77 signatures short of a majority. The law calls for the removal of US forces and the formation of a committee led by the prime minister to implement the law. The committee will present a report to the Iraqi parliament that will describe the “requirements for ending” the US force presence in Iraq.

This law aims to increase pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani and to force him to expel US forces from Iraq. Politico reported on January 9 that senior Iraqi advisors to Sudani told the US State Department that Sudani does not seek the expulsion of US forces.[iii] The draft law’s inclusion of a prime minister-led committee increases the pressure on Sudani by forcing him to author a report detailing how Iraq would end the US presence in Iraq. The inclusion of this requirement is a key difference between the draft law and the 2020 nonbinding resolution that called for the expulsion of US forces.[iv] Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy militias like the Badr Organization have been increasing political and military pressure on the United States in Iraq since late November 2023 as part of their effort to expel US forces from Iraq.[v]

The expulsion of US forces from Iraq will likely allow ISIS to resurge in Syria and then threaten Iraq within 12 to 24 months. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would benefit ISIS by preventing US support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The ISF still faces deficiencies in intelligence, logistics, and fire support.[vi] The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would also require the US to end operations in Syria because US forces in Syria rely on Iraqi bases for their logistics and other support.  CTP-ISW continues to assess that ISIS would likely resurge within 12-24 months in Syria without a US force presence and then threaten Iraq.[vii]

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces destroyed military infrastructure in the northern Gaza Strip. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said on January 13 that there are still Palestinian fighters operating in the northern Gaza Strip.[viii] He added that Israeli forces are working to destroy them and the remaining military infrastructure there. The 401st Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) located and destroyed rocket launchers during searches in Atatra.[ix] The 646th Brigade (assigned to the 99th Division) combat team located and destroyed two more rocket launchers in Mughraqa.[x]

The IDF 99th Division conducted clearing operations in the Central Governorate of the Gaza Strip on January 13. The 179th Armored Brigade (assigned to the 99th Division) ambushed a Hamas squad equipped with small arms in the central strip.[xi] Geolocated footage posted on January 13 shows Israeli forces remotely demolishing a Hamas complex east of Deir al Balah.[xii]

The military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the al Quds Brigades, clashed with Israeli forces using small arms, anti-armor munitions, and mortars in Bureij and Maghazi.[xiii] Palestinian media and locals reported that Israeli tanks advanced in Deir al Balah near the Shuhada al Aqsa Hospital on January 13.[xiv] The hospital is the last functioning hospital in the central Gaza Strip.[xv]

The IDF 7th Armored Brigade is conducted clearing operations in Khan Younis on January 13. Israeli forces destroyed a tunnel shaft containing weapons and improvised explosive devices (IED) in Khan Younis.[xvi]

Palestinian militias used a variety of weapons to disrupt Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis city and east of the city on January 12. The al Qassem Brigades claimed nine attacks east of Khan Younis which suggests that the fighters belong to Hamas’ Eastern Khan Younis Battalion.[xvii] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on January 6 that Israeli forces are close to dismantling Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigades’ northern and eastern battalions.[xviii]

Palestinian militias conducted at least one indirect fire attack from the Gaza Strip into Israel on January 13. The al Quds Brigades fired rockets at Erez in southern Israel.[xix] The al Qassem Brigades published footage of its fighters' firing rockets from the northern Gaza Strip toward unspecified locations in Israel.[xx]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces in three locations across the West Bank on January 13.[xxi]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on January 13.[xxii]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The USS Carney launched Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles targeting a Houthi radar site at Dailami Airbase near Sana’a on January 13.[xxiii] This attack is part of the United States’ effort to degrade the Houthi’s ability to attack maritime vessels transiting the Red Sea.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a rocket attack targeting US forces at the Conoco facility in northwestern Syria on January 12.[xxiv]